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Gallup: It’s a Dead Heat (and we speculate about why)

Via Jeralyn at TalkLeft:

Barack Obama and John McCain are in a statistical dead heat according to the Daily Gallup tracking poll. Why? Seems to me to be the high number of undecideds combined with those who won’t vote for either.

As Karl Rove has been mentioning frequently on Fox News, during the same general pre-convention time period, Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 12-14% advantage over George W. Bush.

The key appears to be the large number of undecided voters or those who do not wish to vote for either candidate. Why is this so, and how can we take advantage of this disturbing polling that shows that the DNC has selected a weak candidate?

From Gallup: “[T]he structure of the race looks slightly different than at any other time this year as a result of the relatively high percentage of voters — 15% — not favoring either major-party candidate. This includes 7% of voters who say they are undecided and 8% who say they will not vote for either candidate. …”

May I assert that one reason for this large number of undecided voters is that Barack Obama has so forcibly seized control of the Democratic party, its DNC apparatus, and the convention? (There is also, of course, his and his campaign’s repugnant treatment of Hillary Clinton, and his failure to make any outreach to her supporters.)

Today, I looked up the history of the 1988 presidential race between Michael Dukakis and George W. Bush. This LEAPED OFF THE PAGE at me — the DELEGATES’ VOTES at the national convention:

1988 Democratic National Convention[8]
Michael Dukakis – 2,877 (70.09%)
Jesse Jackson – 1,219 (29.70%)
Richard H. Stallings – 3 (0.07%)
Joe Biden – 2 (0.05%)
Dick Gephardt – 2 (0.05%)
Lloyd Bentsen – 1 (0.02%)
Gary Hart – 1 (0.02%)

We fear — and the rumors are flying all over the Internet — that Howard Dean is seeking to eliminate a floor vote and to remove Hillary Clinton’s name from the ballot at the National Convention.

Whenever people are not allowed their VOTING RIGHTS under the rules of the Democratic national party, there will be bitter divisiveness.

As we see from the history of the Dukakis nomination, delegates for other candidates were permitted to vote freely.

This is an AHISTORICAL FIRST! It is fundamentally undemocratic. It goes against all that our nation stands for.

This is why — to put it very simply — we must find a way to wrest control of the Democratic party from the power grab by Barack Obama.

Obama’s moves — and the acquiesence of hood-ornament DNC Chair Howard Dean and Speaker Nancy Pelosi — must be FOUGHT.

By the way, writing letters to your superdelegates may be unproductive. Barack Obama has promised them huge sums of money (now, whether or not he can deliver that money is questionable).

Our best venue is to get this story into the media — at every opportunity. Be brave, don your best outfits, and speak out. Appear on television, call in to radio shows, call up your local newpapers and tell them that you’re part of a national movement to keep Hillary Clinton on the ballot at the convention in August, and write letters to the editor.

Our other best bet is to refuse to give the DNC any money, and to make it clear to the DNC that NO more donations will be forthcoming as long as this power-grab is allowed to continue.

I am posting this in a separate post, but take note of this: One of the primary PUMA spokespersons is Will Bower, a highly articulate representative for our views. He will be on MSNBC on Monday morning at 11:30 a.m. ET, and will be interviewed by one of Keith Olbermann’s handmaidens. But Bower is capable of getting his message out clearly despite her sure-to-be-biased line of questioning.

We can also work for the primary opponents of Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry, and other Obamabot politicians.

I.e., we can cause a big stink and make ourselves heard.

Be creative. Think of ways to get your voices heard by as many people as possible.

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Here is the image at the Gallup site, somewhat crunched to fit our writing area width — simply click on the image to view it at its full size or go to Gallup’s page:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

  • Snoop Diggity-DANG-Dawg

    “The far left has taken over the Democrat Party.”

    Very true, Sara. There are lots of “Truman/JFK democrats” out there who are voting McCain because their party left them. I’m one of them.

  • sara

    The far left has taken over the Democrat Party. They nominated a radical for president. They find the constitution is something they must get around rather than yield to. It would not suprise me if they took all but Obama off the convention voting list. That is the way Marxists “vote.” They would do it in the National race if they could get away with it – in a heart beat.

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  • sleepy

    Comment by Denise | 2008-06-15 21:06:50

    Sleepy needs to wake up and smell the coffee because this election is going McCains way. Obama is not the Savior of the World sleepy. He’s a man that wants power. He is dangerous not only to America but to the whole world. He also wants to disarm us. Remove our missile defence systems.

    The coffee smells great.

    The cold war is over, yet McCain is still stuck in that mindset as, it appears, are some of his supporters.

    As far as missile defense systems go, al-qaeda, unlike the Soviet Union, has no ICBM’s and has no capacity to make any. The missile defense has never been proven to work except in the most controlled trials, and while it may be an important piece of pork for the armaments industry, the public itself has far greater needs.

    • GoHillary

      How naive!
      Bush/rice thought colombian druglords were the only enemy, when they were blindsided by Al qaeda’s attack.
      Now it is al qaeda and nothing else.
      You the chinese and russians do exist and the only thing that prevents china from gobbling up taiwan and even japan and the only thing that prevents russia from annexing the arctic is the ICBMs and nukes possessed by US.

      That is why we need a moderate. Hillary is best and she will be back in 2012. In her absence mccain will do.
      Another bush will bankrupt us with bravado.
      Another carter clone will sell out our best interests in exchange for the milk of human kindness.

  • al

    on June 3rd 2008 the democratic party was taken over in a putch by the OBOMMUNISTS! HENCE IF THIS IS ALLOWED I SUGGEST A NEW NAME FOR THE PARTY< THE OBOMMUNIST PARTY! this is god awful and the OBOMMUNISTS tolerate no dissent whatsoever and launch vicious attacks against any perceived ‘enemies’! save our party and nation and spread the word! stop the OBOMMUNIST takeover NOW!
    hillary “08!

  • Dan R.

    This sets up beautifully for McCain. If there really are that many undecided voters out there, the longer they stay undecided, the more likely they are, when the curtain to the voting booth closes, to play it safe and go with the older guy who’s been around for a while rather than with the bright, fresh, but thus far untested newcomer.

  • Denise

    Sleepy needs to wake up and smell the coffee because this election is going McCains way. Obama is not the Savior of the World sleepy. He’s a man that wants power. He is dangerous not only to America but to the whole world. He also wants to disarm us. Remove our missile defence systems. He would leave us sitting ducks for terroists around the World. He thinks (elitist) that he can TALK to our enemies, stands on the stage and preaches to us about how we should live. Its none of his business how weraise our kids, or how we livwe our lives. That is not his job, but he is trying to make his job. Wake up america change is comin. Next thing you no we will be like communist Cuba.

  • Denise

    I saw on one of the website that the Obama camp is opening websites pretending to be ex hillary supporters. His supporters are trained to bring in the lost voters. He already has some of the older woman back on his side thay say on the news. I do not believe a bit of it. We can not believe one word we hear on CNN, MSNbc. Obama also has in his camp an ex ABC news commentor who is working for him now, so that locks up ABC. He has spent millions on media coverage. If you look up his campaign contributions you will see what a liar he is. he has been taking PAC HEDGE and money from lobbists all along. They just weren’t Federal. Only State lobbists and PACs. It is a matter of State v. Federal to him I guess. PAC money is PAc Money, Lobbists is a lobbists what do I care if they are from Fed or State. he said he does not take money from Federal lobbists or PAC’s.

    • StrawberrybitesBarky

      Funny I keep hearing that too, denise, ‘women are turning back to bambi’, but not one live interview. Just web sites. I want to meet one of these women face to face. And no polls cited either, hmmmmmmmmm. Sounds like Rove and his talking points that used to be circulated everyday to news outlets and spoke persons.

  • TJ

    s/b George H. W. Bush

  • http://edgeoforever.wordpress.com/ Robbedvoter

    I am told Dukakis was holding a 14 points lead this time a year.
    Obama hasn’t even been touched by the DNC!

  • Silver

    That’s an excellent suggestion, Artist!! Excellent!!

    • http://deleted AnninCa

      That’s what PUMA is about.

      The other group that could use a few bucks is Women Count Too. They are running ads.

      But so far, PUMA is the only one to register to run independent ads.

  • Pingback: Gallup Poll: Virtual Tie, Obama 44% - McCain 42% … Where be the Bounce? | Scared Monkeys

  • sleepy
    • http://deleted AnninCa

      51%……not really that great of a number considering Democrats are over 60% women.

      He’s lost a chunk of us.

      But I don’t think women will defeat him. We are just one among many.

      Latinos, Jewish Dems, White working class, Men, AND women…..

      That will sink him.

      • sleepy

        Nope. Obama has a large lead among Hispanics.

        According to the Washington Post/WSJ poll of 6/13:

        “Obama now leads John McCain by six points nationwide, the new poll said, about twice the margin reported in May. Most of the internal findings were predictable: Obama leads among women, blacks, Catholics, and independents. McCain is tops among whites, males, white suburban women and evangelicals.

        According to the poll, Hispanic voters are backing Obama by a margin of 62 to 28 percent.”

        http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1814676,00.html

        • ken

          National polls don’t translate into electoral college victory.

          • sleepy

            Of course not.

            But the data rebuts the poster’s point to which I reponded.

        • NeverObama

          Sleepy, like other Obama minions has to scurry around everyday trying to find a bright spot for Obama, as the shadows coles in tighter.

          They love Gallup as a rule, but not today. Gallup is out of favor. As is any negative poll or news scource re Obama, on any given day.

          Such reactions draw a clear distinction between HRC supporters and BHO supporters.

          BHO minions have always been paranoid and panic driven reactionaries. Hrc supporters have always taken all such with a grain of salt, riding out the ebbs and flows.

          We are in a comfort zone knowing we hold the key to this election. The Obama folks remain paranoid, exibiting their standard psychoactive behavior, always fearing the next dropping of a shoe.

          • sleepy

            Actually, I cited a Gallup poll.

            Since the title of this thread deals with polling, I think my comments are appropriate. Moreover, I don’t see anything in the polls for an Obama supporter to be paranoid about. I have always been optimistic about Obama’s chances, and no more so than in the past few days.

            We are in a comfort zone knowing we hold the key to this election.

            Whoever “we” is, I doubt it. There seem to be pretty solid numbers out there backing Obama, and I would suspect that the Hillary supporters for McCain will become increasingly smaller in number as time goes on, not that it was particularly a large group to begin with.

            • Deep Truths

              You do realize that without the media holding Obie wan up on a silver platter, he would not be the presumptive nominee.

              Please, spare me the empty retort that Rezko and Wright did hurt him, or guilt by association. Yes its guilt by whom he’s been friend or mentored for 20 years each. Just like parolees who hang around ex-cons lose their freedom because they continued mixing with the wrong crowd.

              Unvetted, countless questionable associates, gaffes: “57 states, you bring a knife – we’ll bring a gun”, refusing to debate because he is afraid of unscripted questions. There is a lot YOU Obama supporters don’t know, and if you do know then look yourself in the mirror and see the shadow of your former selves. You are an Obamapod, full of fear, grasping at straws.

            • stodghie

              gallup, gallup! dang you are one desperate troll!

        • http://deleted AnninCa

          I will wait to see state by state polls where there are congregations of these groups.

          I don’t believe he’ll win over Latinos. Or jewish Dems.

          I think they will say they are undecided….and they really aren’t.

          They really are going to vote for McCain but don’t want to be hassled.

        • stodghie

          actually obama is losing his butt!

  • artist

    We need to be ORGANIZED, to be effective. I mentioned yesterday, there are too many splinter groups. We must coordinate under one umbrella org.

    IMO, we should choose one monumentally important swingstate that Obama MUST win, like PA , MI or OH and focus our resources there.

    Internet sites can take up donations for a major ad buy and to fund other operations.

    Perhaps we need to start with a mini-summit of the splinter groups leadership, to formalize our grievances and strategize. The DNC “leadership” will quickly learn that we can throw up a formidable firewall in any state of our choosing.