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July 4, 2011

By John Batchelor on December 1, 2009 at 10:30 PM in Current Affairs


 
Hollywood Third Act Clock.  

The speech at West Point becomes a Hollywood thriller because POTUS now inserts a clock (third acts love clocks) that tells the enemy Taliban and their slavemasters Al Qaeda as well as all other Rogue States looking to try their game against Uncle Sam that in 18 months time we start home.

In sum, POTUS just gave away the win and chose to kick for a tie. The critical detail is the timeline.

I spoke with three different combat officers over the last ten days, all serving with the 1st Battalion, 508th Regiment, 4th Brigade, 82nd Airborne in Zabul Province along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, and each of them told me that their best estimate for how long the Afghan National Army (ANA) needs to train to stand alone is 3-4 years. Not 18 months — but 36-48 months.

Can ISAF patch together a work-around? Probably.

But what is the lesson to the ANA right now? That in 18 months time, the Taliban gangsters in those hills are going to come looking to settle scores just as the Americans will be looking to depart. Clock running. 

What Training? 

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Captain Derrick Hernandez, USA, S3 of the 1st Battalion, told me of a recent air assualt operation on a remote Afghan village, about 20-30 kilometers from Highway 1, over the mountains, where Charlie Company commanded by Captain Dan Whitten worked closely and successfully with an ANA platoon.

The village is suspect Taliban-friendly. The air assault put a platoon ANA in blocking positions, and then a platoon of Charlie Company along with ANA moved into the village. Smooth and satisfactory, no enemy contact, information gathered, exits. Ann Marlowe told me she accompanied the assault as an embed and witnessed a deft working relationship between the ANA and the airborne.

Derrick Hernandez reported that this is the sort of operation that both trains the ANA and provides what he called force enablers to both sides — the ANA gets air support, and the airborne gets the human terrain skill of the Afghans to read and interpret the Pashtun culture of the village.

Rogues.

What will the Rogue States such as Iran and Syria and North Korea make of POTUS decision to announce an exit before his new team takes the field?

What will Al Qaeda make of the strategy? The twist is that my information for some time has been that the White House has been in negotiation through House of Saud intelligence agents with different warlords, such as the Haqqani network of Khost Province, in order to purchase a ceasefire.

The negotiations are still confused. Adding to the dilemma is that instability of Pakistan, where the leadership is mysterious, secretive, fragmented.

“We must keep the pressure on Al Qaeda, and to do that we must increase the stability of our partners in the region,” declares POTUS at West Point. The blunt facts are that Al Qaeda is an extension of the Rogue States and that we have no partners in the region.

What will the Rogues makes of POTUS inserting a clock into the region. They will understand that it is time to prepare their own plans for July 4, 2011. Game on. Time is on the enemy’s side.

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From the blog for my syndicated weekend radio show, on which Larry Johnson appears every Sunday night as a member of the experts panel.

  • Bronwyn’s Harbor

    I know that Afghanistan is an insurmountable problem, no matter what we do. How does one train a viable, smart army and police force in a country with 95% illiteracy?

    But the timeline, as John Batchelor puts it so well, gives the game away. There is no longer any prospect of even getting ahead just a bit.

    Mr. Obama, go back to part-time teaching. You haven’t the requisite decision-making skills to be a leader.

    • Bronwyn’s Harbor

      Reverend Amy and I chatted today on the telephone. We talked about the patience of the “rogues.” They will easily wait us out, NOW knowing we’re going away. They are masters at waiting, scheming, watching, plotting. From Alexander the Great to the Soviets, all learned the hard lesson of trying to master a country that is among the most primitive on the planet but is so used to the conquerors who fail and fail and fail, over and over and over again. Only if they know we will NOT give up will they in any way change. Alas, that is not to be.

    • TeakWoodKite

      How does one train a viable, smart army and police force in a country with 95% illiteracy?

      Teach them to read.

  • http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2009/11/27/what-i-now-love-about-the-holidays-thanks-to-the-crobonomy/ Silence Dogood

    Ouch, not good for the big zerO. In trying to please everyone left and right (politically), he’s pissed off everyone. I guess having some convictions one way or the other was out of the question. :D

    Bottom line: the campaign is over dude. This decision is that of someone campaigning, saying what they will do in the future in an attempt to appease every possible audience. I guess he has begun his campaign for 2012 by voting “present” tonight.

    And also dude, you think we’ll forget how long it took you to make this chicken-shit decision?

    Oh and by the way you’ve got a much bigger problem: the economy.

    • Ani

      Well put. Tonight he could not get away with imitating the manner of his endless campaigning — promising the sun, moon and stars to every different group he spoke to on the campaign trail. The media never called him on the inconsistencies and even those who saw it were so caught up in the romance of his candidacy that they ignored common sense. Now he has to deliver and he can’t run in two directions at once and hope to have any positive result.

      In trying to create the perfect stew, Obama either put every spice known to man in the pot or none at all — neither recipe works. Both are a disaster. You can’t add more troops and give away your timeline and strategy at the same time. What kind of clueless do you have to be not to know that. He really does appear to be someone who has lived in an academic bubble all this time, spouting his theories at the faculty cocktail party. How did we get here?

      • http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2009/11/27/what-i-now-love-about-the-holidays-thanks-to-the-crobonomy/ Silence Dogood

        How did we get here?

        Group psychosis.

        I predicted tonight’s outcome. It has been obvious to me for a very long time he is incapable of taking a stand on anything except the zeal to be in charge without doing the heavy lifting required. He’s a lightweight in a heavyweight’s world.

        • indigogrrl

          How did we get here?

          He and the DNC cheated.

  • Peggy Sue

    Just scanning the blogs, this speech is not going over well. And it’s been said before: Afghanistan is where empires go to die.

    I’m not a pacifist. I absolutely supported the US going in and taking out Osama and his wretches. But this? My gut tells me this will not end well.

    And how, pray tell, are we going to fund this with the US basically bankrupt?

    We better hope there is a 4th of July in 2011. As I posted on Amy’s earlier thread, I’m certainly no military strategist but telegraphing our withdrawal doesn’t sound real smart or workable.

    And the President’s speech did not convince me, one iota.

    • Docelder

      telegraphing our withdrawal doesn’t sound real smart or workable.

      He has no intention of ending Afghanistan. So long as it’s active it is the war he “inherited” from Bush-Cheney and he will pile the body bags high and rail against Bush-Cheney indefinitely. Reminds me of the bad economy he “inherited”. He won’t allow that to right itself either. He will spend, spend, tax and spend never allowing us to fully recover. He will rail against Bush-Cheney all the while. Confuse, deflect, blame and rub us all raw with Bush-Cheney. Sounds like the game plan for his success and our failure.

      • Peggy Sue

        I fear you’re right, Doc. I really fear you’re right.

      • ziggy

        Alas, I don’t I think the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan would “right itself”. Afghanistan would fall back to the Taliban, Pakistan would destabilize, and we’d soon have an Al Qaeda-controlled extremist government with a pre-existing nuclear arsenal to deal with.

        • Peggy Sue

          We may end up with that result anyway, ziggy. As I said, I do not pretend to have the answers. The whole damn thing is a gigantic mess. I have no idea how we’re going to fund this thing. I’m still not sure what the mission is [though I suspect this has more to do with Pakistan than anything else] and the timetable withdrawal makes no sense at all.

          I assume [or perhaps pray] the Administration is working off intel that none of us here are aware of, something that makes this plan reasonable. But from the outside, from my small part of the world? It looks untenable.

          I really hope I’m wrong.

          • ziggy

            Yeah, it’s a discouraging reality these days. I often find myself hoping I’m wrong about any number of things. Making a full list of them would be too depressing to contemplate.

            I suspect in 18 months we’ll see only the beginnings of a very gradual troop withdrawal, if that. Obama left himself plenty of “wiggle room”, as the analysts noted. The timeframe was probably stated to mollify the democratic base. He knows full well his war policy in Afghanistan isn’t going to win him any points there. It would appear popularity isn’t his primary consideration at the moment.

            • TeakWoodKite

              Ziggy, make the list.

  • http://firefox AnnieCarmel

    I shamelessly stole this from another blog…Once asked to use the word “horticulture” in a sentence, Dorothy Parker answered: “You can lead a horticulture but you can’t make her think.” I don’t know why but it reminded me of 0zer0.

    There are man ho’s ya know and I think we saw one tonight plying his profession.

  • Hot Librarian

    Afghanistan in 2011 will be exactly the same as 2009.

    They are ripping off the world or hundreds of billions in aid.. They are producing opium poppies (gaining tens of bilions ) they are beating THE ENTIRE WESTERN ARMIES!!!

    And there are only said to be 10,000 of them.

    this is not possible. something is very wrong.

  • Retired

    UPDATE: Attorney General Eric Holder announced that in otder to provide the Taliban and Al Qaeda a “level playing field so that they have a chance to win this war,” the United States must disclose all classified military plans concerning upcoming operations at least ninety days in advance of their execution. “I am confident,” said Holder, “that such disclosure will afford both the Taliban and Al Qaeda with a fair chance to to defeat the United States and coalition forces in the eighteem months before our withdrawal, as is their right under the Constituion.”

  • elaine

    Retired, WHAT???? What Constitution? This is shocking!!!!!

  • glennmcgahee

    He said 18 months but also added the , “depending on the situation on the ground”. Sounded just like Bush, but not as experienced. At least Bush had served in The Guard. Loved it when Obama said he’s seen everything as far as war goes. What an insult to the military personel that do the fighting and actually have been in battle. The guy is shameless.

  • Sassy

    I have no confidence in Obama or the Democrats in Congress, but I believe that General McChrystal, supported by General Petraeus, Secretary Clinton, and Secretary Gates, have been straight-forward in their assessments.
    It is certainly going to be difficult to stabilize Afghanistan, but issueing engraved invitations to terrorists to flood back into the country will be the worst possible outcome!

  • elaine

    Retired, having thought about your post over night I’ve decided it’s in jest…just a spoof on Mr. Holder’s frequent use of phrases like, “as is their right under the Constitution” & “level paying field.” You really had me going there for awhile, so ha ha on me