Al Qaeda, Jihadists and Afghanistan
By Larry Johnson on December 11, 2009 at 6:00 PM in Current Affairs
BUMPED UP
Lots going on and lots to report. Let’s start with the news that fewer than 100 Al Qaeda operatives remain in the Pakistan/Afghanistan area. ABC News reports tonight:
As he justified sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan at a cost of $30 billion a year, President Barack Obama’s description Tuesday of the al Qaeda “cancer” in that country left out one key fact: U.S. intelligence officials have concluded there are only about 100 al Qaeda fighters in the entire country.
A senior U.S. intelligence official told ABCNews.com the approximate estimate of 100 al Qaeda members left in Afghanistan reflects the conclusion of American intelligence agencies and the Defense Department. The relatively small number was part of the intelligence passed on to the White House as President Obama conducted his deliberations.
President Obama made only a vague reference to the size of the al Qaeda presence in his speech at West Point, when he said, “al Qaeda has not reemerged in Afghanistan in the same number as before 9/11, but they retain their safe havens along the border.”
This is true. In fact, the number is less than 100.
At least that is what a person with access to the information told me today. We should not be surprised by these numbers. Prior to 9-11 the total strength of Al Qaeda was put at around 600 men. In the aftermath of 9-11 we killed at least 300 (maybe more). And over the course of the last year we have stepped up operations to capture and kill remaining Al Qaeda operatives.
News on the wire tonight indicates another CIA drone strike against a senior Al Qaeda operative (no word yet on the identity of the target).
This news comes on the heels of word that Pakistani authorities have arrested five American muslims who reportedly traveled to Pakistan intent on getting their jihad on. According to the Times of London:
An FBI team in Pakistan is investigating five American Muslim students who were arrested there yesterday on suspicion of plotting terrorist attacks. They disappeared from their homes in the US last month.
Pakistani police said they arrested the five men, aged from 18 to their early 20s, in a raid on the house of a member of the banned militant group, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), in the town of Sargodha in the eastern province of Punjab.
The FBI has yet to confirm their nationalities or identities, but Pakistani officials said the men were all US citizens, including three of Pakistani, one of Egyptian and one of Yemeni descent and had been staying at the house since November 30.
“We watched them for one and a half days and then arrested them,” Usman Anwar, police chief of Sargodha, told reporters.
“We seized laptops and other things from their possession. Later we came to know that they have come here with the intention of ‘jihad’.”
He also said they were “directly connected” to al-Qaeda, and planned to launch attacks inside and outside Sargodha.
Take the “Al Qaeda” charge with a big grain of salt. Aspiring wannabees is not the same as plugged in, trained terrorists. In fact the story being put out to the public probably is not true. Instead it appears that the FBI was on to these guys before they “disappeared” and that the US Government was cooperating with the Government of Pakistan in monitoring their contacts and activities.
It is very disturbing that these guys, who are educated and have benefitted from living in this country, now decided they want to align themselves with the likes of Bin Laden’s gang of thugs. I hope these five enjoy the comforts of Pakistan’s jails. We ought to leave them there to rot in my view.
Unfortunately these are not the only Islamic crazies in our midst. While a minority there are still enough of these teenage, twenty-something aspiring jihadists to cause alarm and raise suspicions. It is incumbent on the muslim community to rein in these assholes and rat them out of they refuse to reject the extremist nonsense.
The next year in Afghanistan will be critical. If we decide to fight the Afghan people we will lose. We do not have the size of force or strength of economy required to sustain such an effort. However, if we use the additional troops to provide support to secure the cities, train Afghan police and soldiers, and cut deals with the various warlords we are likely to come out of this in good shape. I’m betting on General Stanley McChrystal to pull off something that looks like victory.
Meanwhile the attrition of Al Qaeda continues. That is a good way to end the year and start a new one.
Here are a couple of videos that illustrate the air advantage we have in going after these guys:
, the basis for the Best Motion Picture Nominee (Golden Globes) starring Brad Pitt.
, the novel by John Le Carre, a new motion picture starring Gary Oldman and Colin Firth.
by 
* (Included in the 
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.by David Fredosso who wrote 2008's 
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