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The So-Called Intelligence Failure

By Larry Johnson on December 31, 2009 at 4:00 AM in Current Affairs

* Bumped Up *

The White House is having some success in pushing the nonsense that the failed Christmas Day airplane bombing by Umar Abdulmuttalab was a CIA intelligence failure. This is absurd on so many levels and is believable only to people who know nothing of the intelligence process.

Let’s start with the assumption that there was a piece of disseminated intelligence–i.e., an official report by the CIA or NSA–that “a Nigerian was meeting with Al Qaeda elements in Yemen.” If that report had been generated in Nigeria by the CIA station then it would be appropriate to excoriate the CIA for “failing” to connect the dots with Abdulmuttalab’s father showed up at the Embassy to warn about his son’s drift into extremist behavior. But that did not happen.

It is not the job or mission of a CIA field office to comb through intelligence reports and do analysis or piece together puzzles. They are first and foremost information gatherers. The Bush Administration and the Congress removed the CIA from the job of “piecing” together disparate pieces of information. That job was passed to NCTC, which is under the control of the Director of National Intelligence, Admiral Dennis Blair.

But I don’t think even NCTC merits criticism for a “failure.” From what I have seen there was not enough information on Umar Abdulmuttalab to galvanize the intelligence community to act or to issue a warning to the airlines. The information flow is complicated and cumbersome. Not an excuse, just the fact.

My point in all of this is quite simple–instead of worrying about information flow we should concentrate on putting in place first class security procedures. Umar should have been stopped before boarding the plane with simple profiling. I am not talking about racial profiling. Instead by paying cash for a one-way ticket on an airline he had not previously flow Abdulmuttalab created an immediate profile of someone who should have been pulled aside and grilled. This did not happen.

Blaming the CIA is diverting attention from the real problem–the failure by the Bush Administration and now the Obama Administration to require the use of explosive detection technology and passenger profiling at passenger screening checkpoints.

  • HARP

    Larry. It is my understanding that most checked luggage is not screened. If this is true, why would the bad guys not use this to commit their insanity?

  • HARP

    Can you also check this out Larry.

    A person was detained by customs at Detroit Metro Airport on Friday following Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s alleged attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253, according to a spokesman for U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

    http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2009/12/flight_253_passenger_tells_msn.html

  • grayslady

    Absolutely agree. The cash payment and one-way ticket should have sent up a huge red flag. The absence of checked luggage is no longer a reliable indicator, since many people are now using parcel services to box and ship their clothes in advance rather than put up with the hassle of luggage check-in–and other issues associated with screening baggage, such as theft or damage.

    Perhaps all the airlines could agree to institute a bar code system when someone purchases a ticket. That bar code, for which there would be mandatory screening before proceeding through security, would be required to show method of payment, where the ticket was purchased, and whether the ticket was round-trip or one-way.

  • HARP

    Good idea   :*

  • sowsear

    Plus the two passengers who witnessed the bomber being helped to get through without a passport.

  • Woman Voter

    Link please, that just seems unbelievable. :(

  • Larry Johnson

    Shortly after 9-11 the requirement to screen all checked baggage was instituted.  Most checked baggage IS repeat IS screened.

  • Tricia

    When I leaned that he paid cash for a one-way and had no luggage, I thought that was a RED flag as well. 

  • Olivia1998

    How about the guy on Sunday?  One way ticket, dressed as a business man.  Fits the describtion of the guy who helped the Christmas bomber get on board.  Where was this guy going, did he pay cash? To many questions not enough answers.  No name was given he disappeard into thin air.

  • Bronwyn

    It’s in many, many articles.  Go to Google News — the two witnesses are a  married couple who are attorneys in Michigan.  They were highly observant people, and gave great reports.

  • Bronwyn

    Why did the clerk at the Amsterdam airport not sense that something was amiss, and alert his/her superiors?  Oy.

  • Guest

    I love it the way so many readers here fact check before perpetuating hearsay and rumors about as mindlessly as Obama supporters. Oh, the irony ! >:o

  • Mandelay

    “My point in all of this is quite simple–instead of worrying about information flow we should concentrate on putting in place first class security procedures.”

    As usual, you go right to the heart of the matter, Larry.  I’d feel a lot better if you were the Secretary of Homeland Security.  

  • Pingback: CIA (Panetta?) knew and a terrorist flew… « Moderate in the Middle

  • kenoshamarge

    I think LJ would make a perfect Homeland Security Secretary! Experienced, competent and not fond of either party.

    Oops the very reasons he would be so perfect are the very reasons it could never happen. 

  • Obamasucks

    Who were the employees working the counter and gates who let this terrorist on without a passport? Only American citizens should be working the counters and security gates for flights coming into America.

  • Docelder

    I could have swore, I read this somewhere as Somali, but this is saying Sudan. There are probably wrong reports out, then again maybe I just botched the recall of it. Here is a story of the Michigan couple who witnessed the well dressed Indian man helping the terrorist.

    http://www.freep.com/article/20091230/NEWS06/912300364/1001/news/FBI-probes-account-of-Michigan-couple

  • Anonymous

    RBO has extensive post on these “witnesses.”

  • missmalevolent

    Janet Neopolitan-Ice-Cream needs to be fired.

    When I heard her statements third party I first asked if it was part of a Saturday Night Live skit.

    Once again…amateur hour in the White House.

  • Steve1

    Larry, spot on with the crtique!  It amazes me how President Barry Soetoro, AKA Obama spreads the blame!  Who me, “NOT!”  No defense of his team or the government who is responsible, where does the buck stop????…Exactly who is calling the shots???   Well if we listen to the president…the agencies are to blame or its the Congress fro not approving an agency executive?  Only bright spot is the State Department which followed the procedure, set in place!  Some heads have to role, I hope they are the appropirate ones?

  • Hokma

    “the use of explosive detection technology and passenger profiling at passenger screening checkpoints”

    What most people I know ask is what will it take for the U.S. to do what Israel has done for years. The answer is that we have the ACLU and left wing organizations who insist that all of the terror problems we have are our fault and hightened security measures only serve to portray the U.S. as a police state.

    Israel is a very united country who has been in a virtua state of war since its inception. We have not, and except for a few years after 9/11 we have large segments of the U.S. who do not believe that we still need to be in a state of war and have intelligent seciurty measures to maintain safety.

    It is time now for the U.S. to begin intelligent and aggressive profiling because at some time we are going to run out of clothing to take off at airport security gates.

  • I’m a Linda too

    Thanks Larry.  Did you see this article?

    Barack Obama gets an ‘F’ for protecting Americans
    UK Telegraph link here 

  • TeakWoodKite

    The profiling and technology at the airport are a last line of defense. What steps can be taken before someone enters the airport to mitigate threats?

    TO EVERYONE at NQ; thanks for the year of fanstastic posts and comments. I have only my deepest gratitute for all the great contributions. A Deeply humble, thank you Mr. Johnson.

  • sam

    Maybe they were selling real estate in Austin, Texas instead of doing their jobs. 

  • Norman Rogers

    Let me get this straight–

    It’s not the job of the field office to do analysis–but it is the job of the people who receive their reports, correct?

    Well, who do they send their intelligence reports to? Who takes the very actionable reports that they receive? Isn’t there someone who is capable of taking an intelligence report and qualifying it as a more credible threat than something else? Doesn’t the CIA employ thousands of analysts who are then required to pass actionable intelligence reports to a broad chain of responsible individuals who are connected to the larger intelligence community? Why are we paying billions to these frauds to do nothing, then? Why do we have shredded privacy rights and politicians writing fundraising E-mails while no one does what they’re required to do by law?

    This young man’s father took the time to go into an American embassy and proceeded to tell whoever would listen to him that his son was dangerous. He did this in November. And, over thirty days later, the son gets on a plane, flies to the United States, and tries to detonate explosives sewn into his underwear. How much time does pantload A need in order to get something to pantload B in Washington?

    And, despite the fact that his father warned the CIA over thirty days before the incident happened, it still happened, primarily because the intelligence report passed from the embassy up the chain didn’t end up going to the people who needed it?

    Allow me to call bullshit. When, oh when, is it ever the fault of the people who are incompetent and don’t do their jobs? When will anyone ever be held accountable for failing to do an adequate job? From Obama to Panetta to Freeh to the worthless members of Congress to the acting secretaries and political appointees and the overpaid, useless contractors–who, exactly is ever to blame when there’s a massive, glaring screwup of monstrous proportions that could have killed hundreds of people?

    When do we stop carrying water for whoever we support politically and start holding people responsible what they have failed to do? No one can stop every terrorist, but why do we have to have morons presiding over a broken system that can’t even catch a sad, lonely little man from Nigeria who couldn’t even swim through the drugs they gave him and blow himself up properly?

  • Hokma

    I am sorry but I and now most Americans disagree. Profiling is a must. The one common thread between all terrorists is that they are Muslim Jihadists – not 75 year old grandmothers. We have to begin to do what Israel has done for decades and do so in an intelligent but agressive manner. These terror organzations are not stupid and learn all the latest technology and how best to get around it – and, as I said previously, at what point do we have no more clothes to take off at security gates?

  • whoframedrudy

    Hokma,

    What do you think El Al does?  As I understand, it takes 3 hours to get on a plane and everyone is interviewed.  Yes, by far most terrorists may be Jihadists.  (Not McVeigh.)  But they have tried to use plants and patsies.  This <a href=”http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=892&dat=19861024&id=L6cOAAAAIBAJ&sjid=QIIDAAAAIBAJ&pg=5489,4861204″>Jordanian</a> planned so far ahead as to seduce this Irish girl, plan a wedding, got her pregnant to make her look even less suspicious, coached her not to mention his name to El Al, and then planted a bomb in her baggage to blow up the plane along with her and his own child.  Pregnant Irish woman?  El Al still picked her out with terrorist profiling.

    As Larry says, profiling is not ethnic profiling.  This Jordanian was counting on ethnic profiling.  Ethnic profiling would have let this woman on the plane and the bomb plot would have worked.

    If you rule out 75-year old grandmothers, they’ll plant an explosive on a 75-year old grandmother.  Its part of their playbook.  Nobody just walks onto an El Al airplane because they are not Muslim.

  • Hokma

    El Al knows who is going ona plane before they ever get to an airport. That is what the U,S. needs to do.

  • Breeze

    HOW COME THIS IS NOT BEING DISCUSSED?

    It has been bothering me a lot and it is hardly mentioned anywhere, including
    here.

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/obama-surrenders-u-s-sovereignty-his-interpol-executive-order/

  • creeper

    Norman Rogers, thank you for a realistic analysis of the problem.

    It strikes me as absurd that passengers in the United States will now find themselves searched to a fare-thee-well because security in Lagos, Nigeria failed.

    Insofar as the Obama administration is concerned, this crisis did not go to waste.  They have seized it as an opportunity to exercise even more control over Americans, with no justification other than their own incompetence.

    Heads need to roll over this failure.  Instead of seeing the blame placed where it belongs…on the idiots who dropped the ball not once but several times…we are now being subjected to a steady chorus of “it’s not my fault.” 

    By all of the guidelines currently in place here is the states, this man would never have been allowed to board a commercial airliner.  In its response demanding even further intrusion on our persons and further curtailment of our freedoms the administration is simply moving the goalpost down the field toward total control of our lives. 

    They fumbled the ball and are now demanding that it be returned to them with an extra ten yards awarded.  That their position is being given credibility by anyone is ludicrous.

  • tango

    But even so, it seems that terrorists would just get smart. Buy a round trip ticket way in advance and check luggage at the airport.  Unless the person is flagged some other way for additional screening, then a terrorist is free to get on airplane.

    It seems to me that the terror groups would implement the above changes right away since it’s now been advertised that people flying one way with no checked baggage are going to be under additional scrutiny.  

  • Mr.Murder

    First thought was, how many dry runs did this guy try? That’s usually an AQ method. They also act in concert, not as individuals.

    Larry’s right, not enough was there on a single actor motivated at this, to connect him anywhere feasibly.

    Now, of the contacts he had with people we did have awareness of or keep dibs on their actions, what level were they and can a review of that accelerate a better way to elevate threats?

    Holiday time, AQ and such always plan events around such for symbolic reasons, or on days of political consequence,  thus the Detroit destination to a community with many muslim expats? Simple traits for a copycat or individual to try and employ.

    The fundamental items Larry notes make it a red flag. Combine it with known knowns to accelerate response. We can’t stop every person wanting to do these things, we can improve our response. The news that ops were going forward in Yemen shows we already had some things in place anticipating a way to get in front of this if it’s ever found to be an operational link.

    The reaction to our enforcement efforts is most important. The second wave is more likely to be inspired individuals. Limit collateral results, be precise, surgical, and then we get less sympathy for those who wish us ill will.

    If he had contacts with people we watch, and goes to the extent of throwing up the noted red flags, those items could combine and put him through a new level to filter the threat presence.

  • Docelder

    You have to think that the only reason he would sign that is because it increases his own personal power in some way. That is his MO.

  • Jazzman

    Once again…. our focus must be OVER THERE! We control everything over here….Over there is our weekness….focus foreign airports…….

  • Jazzman

    Stupidity at its finest!

    DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
    Transportation Security Administration
    Aviation Security Directive
    Subject: Security Directive
    Number: SD 1544-09-06

    Date: December 25, 2009
    EXPIRATION: 0200Z on December 30, 2009
    This Security Directive (SD) must be implemented immediately. The measures contained in this SD are in addition to all other SDs currently in effect for your operations.

    INFORMATION: On December 25, 2009, a terrorist attack was attempted against a flight traveling to the United States. TSA has identified security measures to be implemented by airports, aircraft operators, and foreign air carriers to mitigate potential threats to flights.

    APPLICABILITY: THIS SD APPLIES TO AIRCRAFT OPERATORS THAT CARRY OUT A SECURITY PROGRAM REGULATED UNDER 49 CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS (CFR)1544.101(a).

    ACTIONS REQUIRED: If you conduct scheduled and/or public charter flight operations under a Full Program under 49 CFR 1544.101(a) departing from any foreign location to the United States (including its territories and possessions), you must immediately implement all measures in this SD for each such flight.

    The Rest

    Hummm…. Don’t see where it says round-up the run away horses…..and don’t forget to shut the barn door…..

  • Jazzman