The US Presidential Race in Montana
By Charles Lemos on August 4, 2008 at 11:00 PM in Barack Obama, John McCain, Montana
It’s pretty clear that this has been a bad week for Barack Obama, the question is why? I am not really sure quite why, other than the obvious in my mind, but I am the first to admit most Americans do not yet see the danger that I see in Barack Obama.
The US Presidential race this year is certainly topsy turvy with the number of battleground states higher this time around. In part that’s due to the erosion of the Republican brand. A year ago, most seasoned observers felt any Democrat would coast to the White House but that was before that any Democrat was Barack Obama. If George W. Bush destroyed the GOP, look no further than Barack Obama for the erosion in the Democratic Party’s decline.
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he has pulled even with Barack Obama. The bad news for John McCain in Montana is that he is only even with Barack Obama in a state that George W. Bush carried by 20 or more points both times.
Montana last went for a Democrat in 1992 in the three way race of that year and before that in 1964. Two years ago, Montana elected Jon Tester, a Democrat, to the US Senate and it currently has very popular Democratic Governor in Brian Schweitzer.
From Rasmussen Reports:
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he’s gained six points on Barack Obama over the past month. The bad news is that the race is essentially even in a state that George W. Bush won by 20-percentage points in 2004 and by 24 points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana’s three Electoral College votes, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot picking up 14%.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote in Montana while Obama earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s all tied up at 47%.
A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.
McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, up a point over the past month. For Obama, 53% now have a favorable view, down four points.
Those figures include 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 31% who think that highly of Obama. At the other end of the spectrum, just 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain but 29% hold such a view of Obama.
The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.
Obama is preferred by 86% of Democrats and McCain by 80% of Republicans. The two men are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. One interesting note in the data is that five percent of Republicans say they’d prefer some other candidate while only one percent of Democrats feel that way. Among unaffiliated voters, five percent prefer a third option over either McCain or Obama.
Adding to McCain’s challenge in this historically red state is the fact that Montana’s very popular Democratic Governor is cruising to victory in his re-election bid.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Montana voters say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win in November. Just nine percent think they’re trying to help McCain. These perceptions are shared by voters throughout the nation.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 64.8 % chance of winning Montana this November. At the time this poll was released, Montana is listed as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, Obama has been enjoying a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for several weeks.
I still think it is too early to focus on national polling numbers and to be frank the US presidential race is not one race but 51 separates races (actually a few more since both Nebraska and Maine elected their electors by Congressional district). In this regard, I believe it more insightful to focus on each race in each state than the overall popular vote. McCain can win the election and lose the popular vote.
From my blog, By The Fault.
:::::::::::::::::::::::::
NoQuarterUSA Action Of The Day: We ask that you take part in the I Own My Vote Virtual Platform Committee Meeting now! It takes five minutes. Click here to start. If you have not yet signed the pledge, click here to do so.

















