Iran: The Strategic and Human Factors

Larry,
This past week, I attended a lecture given by Seymour Hersh at Rice University in Houston, Texas. His lecture was enlightening to say the least. Your post confirms pretty much what he stated at his lecture. One thing he said that raised a few eyebrows in the crowd, was that he did not believe Bush was a “liar.” Hersh thinks he is a “true believer,” i.e. believes in what he is doing with all of his heart, but not a liar. Cheney on the other hand, Hersh said, he still can’t figure out what exactly Cheney is up to, what is his ultimate goal, though he has some ideas. Hersh went on to talk about how there are basically 8 or 9 neocons that are in control and that is why, ultimately, he thinks Bush is not a liar. Hersh also stated that many of the intelligence reports that are intended for the President only, are routed to Cheneys office first. I could go on, but I will stop. It was the most interesting two hours – I never moved in the entire two hours. What a brillant man Hersh is.

I’m keeping an eye out for 1) the transcript of Hersh’s talk with Blitzer, and 2) the New Yorker piece …

A gripe: I LOVE the New Yorker, but hate its Web site. It’s often difficult to find the latest stories linked on its home page, and its search engine returns too many irrelevant stories.

The link is up. See http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/061127fa_fact

Does it matter if Bush is a true believer or not, when most of America no longer believes him? Finally. Maybe Bush should hire a platoon of fact checkers to vet his many contradictory, misleading, inaccurate, and factually challenged statements. Maybe he ought to exercise his power as president and tell Cheney and the Neocons to knock it off. But that might be expecting too much of the preznit.

It’s getting harder and harder these days to keep up with which country is the “most dangerous” today. It seems like only yesterday when the stateless al Qaeda was the most dangerous in Afghanistan…and now they’re rumors that they’re back. Then Iraq was the most dangerous, because they didn’t have WMD. Then North Korea was the most dangerous because they r-e-a-l-l-y did have WMD, only we refuse to talk to them. Now Iran is the most dangerous because we think they may want WMD sometime in the near future, even if it turns out to be in accordance with the NPT which we now renounce. But then WE could be the most dangerous because we want to build new nukes and have arrogated the right to preemptively nuke anyone we believe may want nukes, even if they don’t.

I’m soooo confused.

Leslie – There were a number of people that showed up at Rice University with various “Bush lied…..people died, etc. type of shirts and I think Hersh didn’t want people to think his lecture was a “Bush Bashing.” Hersh is obviously not a fan of Bush, but was trying to make the distinction to show how badly things are going, are a result of those that surround Bush and advise him. Remeber Bush is a follower, not a leader. I totally agree with your post. Nobody believes Bush anymore anyway.

Waiting in Texas,
Oh yeah, I got that. Hersh is great. Didn’t mean that as a knock against him. Just don’t think it matters much if Bush is a believer not, when his policies or lack of are disastrous. Meanwhile, Hersh’s analysis of the inner workings of Bushdom is fascinating.

Waiting In Texas, my daughter got to see Hersh speak a few months ago, and was enthralled by his brilliance and grasp. I just wish she’d had a tape recorder hidden in her bag!

LESLIE, such great points by you. Thank god Bush and Cheney have lost credibility with all but the hard-core 31%.

There was a lot to be optimistic about this morning. It was so great to see such persuasive, compelling contrasts in the fascinating accounts that Ted Koppel gave of his visit to Iran and his talks with so many Iranians, and in the interviews of Webb and Tester, those two freshmen senators who’ll provide such dramatic and thoughtful contrasts to the likes of Cheney and Bush.

Leslie and Susan – If you ever get a chance to see Hersh speak in person, it is worth it. I could have sat for two more days and listened to him. He said that the capture of Saddam was staged. Basically, the US paid the ransom for him. There were around 700 people at this lecture.

Saddam’s capture looked staged at the time too. His trial and the “verdict” were also staged—by us, using Iraq’s puppet government as a cover. Most Iraqis hate Saddam, but he was still their leader. Can’t imagine Iraqis are too happy about an occupying power dictating the terms for the trial of their leader and the verdict, even if Saddam was hated.

Yeah, I’d love to hear Hersh speak.

Unfortunately, my housework duties are calling my name,(and the DVD of the DaVinci Code), so I must sign off.

Yes, Susan we have a lot to be optimistic about today. Enjoyed chatting with you and Leslie. My regards to Larry. Ya’ll have a great blog.

Waiting in Texas, I would just love to see him sometime. By the way, my daughter was anxious to buy a book at the event, and get his autograph, but he wasn’t selling books … he said something about his employers (New Yorker?) liking him to get out and about. So there he was in Seattle, and my daughter — who reads every word he writes — grabbed up tickets.

For those who can’t see him in person, there’s the Univ of Calif TV channel … i get it on DISH, and they often rerun Hersh’s talks. And you can view the videos of his speeches at http://www.uctv.tv/

Here are the titles / links to two of his speeches available at UCTV.tv:

Investigating the War on Terrorism: Abu Ghraib and the Underside of the Conflict in Iraq
http://www.uctv.tv/search-details.asp?showID=9085

Resisting Government Secrecy in a Time of Terrorism with Seymour Hersh
http://www.uctv.tv/search-details.asp?showID=9075

Susan – he wasn’t sellng books or doing autographs at Rice either.

Clearly any nation state/group that is full of hot air and blows crap out their butt is “the most dangerous”. It doesn’t matter who it is as long as they can be trumped up into a sufficient enough fear to provide cover for continuing the immoral profiteering of Cheney and his Neocon clan.

I think it would be in order for this blog to make it clear that VIPS members contributed to the article being linked to. You know, full disclosure type of thing.

Stove-piping indeed.

Seixon writes: “I think it would be in order for this blog to make it clear that VIPS members contributed to the article being linked to. You know, full disclosure type of thing. Stove-piping indeed.”
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Susan and Hersh,
When did you guys become members of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity? Knew Larry Johnson was a member, but didn’t know the New Yorker, Wolf Blitzer, Ted Koppel and the Khaleej Times were also? LOL.

Leslie,

Susan obviously posts at Larry’s behest, don’t be coy. You don’t find it a bit amusing that the blog of a VIPS member has links to an article sourced by VIPS members without mentioning that fact?

I’m not sure what Wolf Blitzer, Ted Koppel, or the Khaleej Times have to do with this, other than you trying to evade the point I was trying to make.

Blitzer obviously had Hersh on about his report, a report sourced by the likes of Johnson and VIPS, while I do believe Ted Koppel’s report was just on the fact that Iran presents a large danger to our interests in the region.

Hersh isn’t a VIPS member, obviously, his sources are VIPS. Try to evade that as you might.

The line, “The CIA is being kept from seeing the Israeli Intelligence reports” is glaring to me.

Maybe I’m forgetful but I just can’t remember any indepth disclosure going into Iraq of Israeli intelligence, yet it must have played a part. Cheney harassed the CIA and created his own intelligence analysis from raw data for Iraq which pretty much shut out the CIA’s ability to bring reason to the table, so now Cheney is shutting the CIA out entirely and hoarding the Israeli intel; and is he doing the interpretation on it as well? This is reminding me of the Conrad Burns debate moment against Jon Tester when he proclaimed he had a secret Iraq plan and waved the papers in the air like a mad man.
So what’s the deal with the Israeli intel now and Cheney?

Larry Johnson’s membership in VIPS is public knowledge, and he’s made no secret of that in his blog. He’s posted about it in fact. I bet Susan would disagree with your characterization of her contributions to this blog. Larry Johnson doesn’t always agree with what Susan writes, and I know that because he’s publicly stated so on at least one occasion. Susan is her own person, even if Larry invited her to blog here.

You’re implying that unknown persons are members of VIPS, without specifying whom you “suspect.” It was a logical extension to wonder if you were referring to Wolf Blitzer, Ted Koppel, Sy Hersh, etc. Because other than Larry, I can’t imagine who else you mean? Do you mean the VIPS among Sy Hersh’s sources include, for example, Richard Armitage? Who are you talking about?

And even if Larry would link to Sy Hersh’s article, with or without Susan’s help, so what? What makes you think anyone associated with VIPS contributed to Sy Hersh’s article and, if they did, what’s your point?

The line, “The CIA is being kept from seeing the Israeli Intelligence reports” is glaring to me.

Mainsailset – if you read my previous posts, this is what Sy Hersh was referring to in his lecture at Rice University this past week, about secret intelligence reports that were going to Cheney’s office first, rather than Bush’s. Hersh took real exception to this point in his lecture – it seemed to get under his skin and the tone in his voice showed that.

At one point, when Hersh was mentioning that he didn’t know what Cheney’s intentions were, he later concluded that perhaps Cheney was in business with some Russians involved with oil? It was just a fleeting comment. I didn’t really understand it at the time, but today in the WaPo, I saw an article about the Kremlins expanding powers, which is what made me think about that. I still haven’t read the article yet in the New Yorker and maybe some of this stuff is explained in there.

Seixon, do you mean that Larry Johnson is a source for Sy Hersh’s article because Susan links to it on his blog? Therefore, Hersh’s article is suspect because Larry is a member of VIPS, which Susan ought to point out? Your comments don’t make any sense.

Thank you Waiting In Texas.

When Larry gets home, I’ll ask him what to tell Seixon.

Leave the poor Khaleej Times out of it — they were one of about 12 newspapers that picked up the AFP wire story on Hersh’s article.

What I find most suspicious is that Sy Hersh writes for The New Yorker, whose editor David Remnick backed the invasion of Iraq.

Also odd: The New Yorker is famous for its pre-publication, exhaustive fact-checking. (Except in the case of Sy Hersh’s stories?)

Somehow none of this adds up into a neat theory.

B-b-b-but Susan, maybe the Khaleej Times were a source for Sy Hersh’s article because they refer to it? And you know what that means…not. LOL.

The one New Yorker article linked to, the one from 2003, is sourced by Greg Thielmann, a VIPS member. The more recent article reads like a manuscript from the writings of Ray Close, Larry Johnson, Ray McGovern, and Philip Giraldi – all VIPS.

They have been peddling this Iran angle for years now. Ray McGovern warned in September that Democratic success in the election was the only way to avoid a war with Iran.

The VIPS crew have been peddling this anti-Cheney line for years now. Time to wake the hell up people – since most if not all of what they’ve been peddling has turned out false or has been impossible to verify.

This is a war between CIA careerists (VIPS) and Cheney’s office, of which the Plame debacle is a part.

VIPS, the same group that went around peddling the story that Cheney was the center of the Plame investigation, and that he was going to be indicted. Ray McGovern, VIPS, peddled the theory that Bush would fire Fitzgerald for getting too close to the “truth”. You know, the Jason Leopold “truth”.

Go ahead and believe every word Hersh writes, in a few months you’ll once again see them updating their storyline to keep it fresh, and you’ll forget all about them having been completely wrong.

Watch the film all these folks made together, starring Joe Wilson. It reads like a Who’s Who of this operation of misinformation. Such as Scott Ritter, teaming up with Sy Hersh ever since 2005 to peddle the story that we were inches away from attacking Iran.

Didn’t happen, so now they revise the story to keep it alive. Whatever they can do to scare Americans into believing that the loco Bush White House is about to start WWIII.

Oh, and last but not least, anything to save the image of their beloved CIA and smear everyone else for their failings.

Source?

Seixon,
I’m still having a lot of trouble following you. Maybe I’m just stupid. But what 2003 article? Provide the link. When you say “sourcing” what do you mean? Sy Hersh interviewed Thielmann for his 2003 article? That’s usually the way “source” is used, but it’s not clear how you’re using it.

What film VIPS and Wilson made together? Must’ve missed it.

Why would you assume that avoiding a possible war with Iran would be anti-Cheney?

We are close to war with Iran. And I don’t need Sy Hersh to tell me that. Hven’t you been reading the newspapers and listening to what Bush, Cheney and Rice have been saying for over a year now? From GlobalSecurity.org talking about possible war and the Bush administration’s movement of air carriers and a strike force to the region: http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iran-strikes.htm

Agree with you on one point: There is a war going on between CIA and Cheney. It’s hurting the CIA and their ability to do their job, which is to help ensure our national security.

They say hindsight is 20/20. So Valerie Plame was working on WMD’s in Iran and Joe Wilson WMD’s in Iraq. They were both discredited and Valerie outed, because Cheney and Co. knew that the Iran angle wouldn’t pass muster with Plame. Am I on the right track here? According to an LA Times article today, they are calling for the bombing of Iran. How much more can our country endure of being held hostage by a handful of these Neocon visionaries? God help us all.

As I said in a previous post, I believe that Iran is being used as the excuse to turn nuclear weapons into a colateral asset. I am talking about weapons that use the trigger of a split molecule, rather than radioactive weaponery (which are already being used extensively).

Once Bush “goes the bomb” that means any war any situation could justify the bomb. Imagine what sort of boost that would give our nuclear stocks. Hoo hoo the age of commerce is such a hoot. Also, if our existing supply gets used up we will need new ones. Think of the possibilities……

Who cares if Iran even gets a nuclear weapon? Obviously a world without nuclear weapons would be best, but it ain’t going to happen. Is it not their right with the U.S. having nuclear weapons, not to mention their neighbours, Russia, India, Isreal and Pakistan also having weapons? Iran is developing into a true regional power and the world just has to get use to it.

The world will also just have to live with the idea that Iran will have nuclear weapons. Get over it and get past it.

Instead of worrying about a nuclear weapon, the world would be better off if the U.S. made peace with the Iranians. Their 70% youth population would probably easily like to become friends with the U.S.

These old farts in the U.S. government need to get beyond their cold war mentality. They are always looking for an enemy. What actually have the Iranians done in recent years to the U.S.?

The old farts in Iran ought to make friends with 70% youth population. Did you know that Farsi is the fourth most commonly used language on the internets?

Sy stovepipes and has a vivid imagination. Spellbinding he is.

Val either was instrumental in pre-war Iraqi and Iranian intelligence and gave bad advice to her superiors, or she wasn’t. If, a big, capital IF, her civil suit progresses we may get to find out. Otherwise, forget it, her role will remain undercover forever.
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Bush/Cheney’s solution to going around a Congress and a public that will not willingly allow a blind faith bombing of Iran – they’ve already told us. Bomb first and ask for forgiveness later.

Phillip, u ask, “What actually have the Iranians done in recent years to the U.S.?” Well I don’t find it endearing at all that every Friday, when the mosques let out there’s the ritual burning & stomping of our flag while a group screams “Death to America.” Maybe you think that’s just street theater. O.K. try this one: they supply weapons, ammo & advisors to kill our troops in Iraq! many of whom are also young. I could go on but assume u got the basic idea.

Has anyone asked the question, most dangerous nation to whom?

kim- ahmadenajad has like a 70% approval rating in Iran. the “mullahs” backed his opponent in the last election. he’s a rock star. the country is mainly young peole because their parents all died in the iran iraq war

Guess who, you are behind the times. They even do the flag burning dance here in Australia.

Some say if you don’t burn a few flags you won’t get any protesters turning up let lone the media, these days.

Besides Lester is right, not too much reason to admire the US if you live in Iran. Although Ahmadenajad seems pretty reasonable. He has inherited a tradition. The West has persued a merciless campaign of outright attrician towards Iran and he still, in my opinion, would prefer to deal. Now you can’t get more reasonable than that.

Thinker, u really focused on the flag burning..that’s just window dressing. How ’bout u address my more salient point, that being that Iran is arming Mookie & his militia & providing the expertise to kill our troops & to torture & execute non-combatant Iraqis. U say Iran just wants “to deal”. What’s the deal? We stand down while they try to finish Hitler’s final solution? I’m not posting on this site to get into alot of personal revelation but know this: I’m no Jimmy Carter style dhimmicrat & I don’t give no comfort n aid. What’s next? Trying to convince me the Taliban are legit..just another lifestyle choice?

Yep, gw, just another lifestyle choice legitimized by an Old Testament prophet. What’s the matter with those Jews, anyway? Oops, Newest Testament prophet, and technically Muhammed was semitic, not Jewish, but hey, what’s the difference.
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Indeed, self-determination for peoples and nations of the worrld is a fine idea ‘in theory,’ but really, can the United States and its client state Israel allow such a concept to flourish unchecked?

After all these fiascos I’m still a little suprised the CIA would stand for Cheney bypassing proper intelligence channels again! As if Iraq taught them nothing. Does this CIA Director have one shred of character? Any spine? No wonder the CIA must leak. They’ve got Dr. Stranglove in their midst and he’s in cahoots with the Likudniks to start military action against Iran.

Intelligence is in the hands of the defense department. The CIA is a zombie.

Anonym still thinks nihilistic cynicism is for cool cats.
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“nihilistic cynicism … ” A fine (albeit accidental) description of the Right Wing of the U.S.

(And may I suggest, Miss Kim, that you have your ‘sarcasm detector’ re-calibrated.)

Amy Goodman interviewed Sy Hersh yesterday:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/11/21/1518247
– choose from a transcript, audio or video

SEGMENT TITLE:
Tuesday, November 21st, 2006
The Next Act: Will the Republicans’ Mid-Term Loss Hurt Chances of a War on Iran?

So when America goes into Iran with wrath and destruction in her heart, should the Iranians blow kisses, guess who?

If you want wanton destruction, behave as America does.