SUSA Florida Poll — McCain By Six

Florida Congressional Districts

Florida offers a rich prize of 27 electoral votes, 10% of the total required to win the Presidency. In 2004, George W. Bush won Florida by 52.1% to 47.2% margin over John Kerry.

Survey USA (SUSA) has a new poll out today that shows McCain enjoying a comfortable six point margin. That margin is slightly more than Bush’s five point win in 2004. Not a bad place to be.

In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola. Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida. Among voters younger than Barack Obama (47), Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year.

Most polls heretofore have shown Florida as in the “leaning Democratic” or “slightly Democratic” column so these new polling results are either an outlier or suggest a shift in the race. Coupled with other polls, both nationwide and in individual states, the trend seems to be the latter. There is a discernable if nascent shift in the race. It is now increasingly evident that in the past fortnight despite the “glory that was Baghad, the awe that was Berlin” that support for Obama has eroded. There was no bounce for Obama in the US. To be frank, his waffles have had more bounce.

As to why this is, I believe that McCain’s attacks mocking Obama have raised questions as to the character and substance of Obama and have for now painted Obama as an arrogant, holier-than-thou and out of touch elitist not to mention pitiful and laughable. Watching Morning Joe with Joe Scarborough this morning was illuminating. The first ten minutes of the show was spent watching and discussing McCain’s “The One” Internet-only ad. All the other cable news shows pretty much did the same. It’s not the ad per se, it is that they are largely only talking about the ad.

Whatever it cost the McCain to produce this ad, the dividends have been enormous. The ad is politically brillant on many levels. For starters, Obama’s messianic rhetoric is not likely to sit well with the average middle-of-road American. Young hip urbanites long on hope but short on the lessons of political realities may buy it. And certainly those uptown latte-sipping, fresh from the club with yoga mats under their arms with bottled European water in their fanny packs, headed to Whole Foods for a pound of arugula, and yet still looking for that ethereal redemption kind-of-liberals may buy it but will it play well in Kansas City or Penascola? Joe Scarborough, who was the Congressman from Penascola and thinks himself a “regular Joe”, thought the ad hit Obama “hard” and compared it to a boxing match where you open a cut above the eye with a jab and then keeping punching away. In short, it worked and it can’t hurt that they showed it over and over again. If this is a championship fight, round to McCain with Obama in the corner his aides trying to stop the bleeding. By no means a knockout, but a cut has been opened.

Obama’s own words are his own worst enemy and McCain, not to mention the RNC and the as yet unleashed 527 Political Actions Committees, are willing to do what Senator Clinton was not — mock Obama in commercials and day after day. Clinton mocked Obama here and there most memorably in Cincinnati and in Providence. But she fought largely on the issues and not on character. McCain is clearly going to attack both on issues and character.

But also remember that the ad is Internet-only but every cable news programme has devoted substantial air time to the ad. And this is not the first the Internet-only ad or clever response by McCain that has caused a stir. Obama’s energy solution of “let’s inflate our tires to save gas” was followed by McCain offering a tire gauge for a $20 contribution. In essence, the creativity of the McCain campaign has bought them invaluable air time on the cheap. For the week that Obama was abroad, the networks covered Obama 24/7 and all but ignored McCain. But I don’t think that speech in Berlin was much of a hit in the US. Other than the need to bring down more walls, I can’t even remember any of it. It wasn’t memorable but what was memorable was that Obama gave a campaign speech to 200,000 foreigners, acted as if he had already won and then skipped visiting the troops for a lack of cameras. That didn’t sell well back in the US of A.

The other thing that has hit Obama is the inconsistency in his message. Whereas in the primary, his base didn’t care about the flip-flops since many of them were virulently anti-Clinton no matter what; Obama now has to appeal to a wider constituency many of whom did not cast a vote in the primaries not to mention attempt to recapture a large portion of the Clinton base. Certainly, Obama has disappointed a portion of his base, witness the “Change We Can Believe In” letter the liberal magazine The Nation sent him asking him to be the progressive they believe him to be. It was authored and signed by 50 prominent progressives including one Obama bundler (Jodie Evans) and one Obama delegate (Norman Solomon, the noted author) not mention people like Gore Vidal, Howard Zinn and Phil Donahue. But moreover to the average John Q. Public, Obama’s reversals on the issues make John Kerry look like the rock of Gibraltar. Obama, at times, is as solid as quicksand. Wish that he were really quicksand, then this unfolding politcal tragedy would be over quicker. Instead, it seems like we are in for a slow painful demise. Every day brings yet another backtrack. One can get whiplash trying to follow Obama’s comings and mostly goings.

The part of the equation that is changing for Obama is the media coverage especially from the print media. With Obama now front and center and alone, his changes in positions have come under scrutiny. The off-shore oil drilling is a case in point. Obama, in his own mind at least, didn’t think that offering to compromise on the issue was a shift in his position. But the media did. And so the headlines blared “Obama in a Major Shift.” And that story line then gets put on the cable shows where his pundits are force to defend the indefensible and come off looking laughable. I must admit it was quite enjoyable to see Donna Brazile twist and give Wolf Blazer the evil look that only she can give when the CNN anchor asked brazenly about the about-face in the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegation. Brazile played the “it’s time to come together” unity card as best she could though she still stuck to her the “rulz are the rulz” mantra. She was clearly not amused.

But for most of the rest of us why Obama is shifting on these positions is clearer. His internal polling likely shows that disaffected Democrats are not rushing back, McCain has scored points on energy and on character and that independents who are just getting to know Obama are less than impressed.

Still remember nothing in political campaigns is static and with just over 90 days to go much can still happen. And Obama does have a $5 million ad buy upcoming during the Olympic fortnight. And let’s not forget Obama does have a base for whom the kool-aid flows like milk and honey and they are still chanting O-BA-MA, O-BA-MA waiting for the Red Sea to part so they can enter blue heaven.

Addendum: Mika Brzezinski, the co-anchor on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, admitted that she first thought that the McCain “The One” ad was a pro-Obama ad which only goes to show how so many are so beholden to the O-BA-MA craze and can only be described as out of touch. It boggles the mind that she earns six if not seven figures.

From my blog, By The Fault.