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Where is Wall Street Hiding Hundred Plus Billion in Lo$$es?

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA)

Banks are increasingly healthy, right? Our nation’s accounting rules promote real transparency and integrity in our financial reporting, right? Housing is bottoming, right? No, no, and no!

Why so pessimistic, you may ask? I am not pessimistic at all. I am merely searching for the truth in the midst of the smoke and mirrors on Wall Street and in Washington.

Thank you to our friends at 12th Street Capital for sharing a recently released letter from Congressman Barney Frank imploring the four largest banks involved in mortgage originations to write off second liens they are holding on their books at inflated values.

Why does Congressman Frank believe these loans need to be written off? The liens must be largely written off so that Washington can then compel banks to engage in writing down principal on first liens in an attempt to keep people in their homes. Keeping people and families in homes is certainly a worthy cause, but the process is fraught with all kinds of violations of moral hazards and assorted unintended consequences. When you hear that your neighbor receives a principal reduction, how long will it take you to go to your bank and demand the same?

Let’s review Frank’s brief, two-page letter (click on image below to access pdf document). Focus on Frank’s comment that the second liens have no real value but accounting rules allow the banks to carry them at artificially high values. Can you say, “cooking the books”?

What are the projected losses in these second liens? Well, how much of this paper is outstanding? The Wall Street Journal provides a bar graph in an article, Home-Savings Moves Afoot:

So, with $1 trillion in outstanding second liens on the books, the question begs as to how much of this indebtedness is current, how much is delinquent, and how much is truly worthless but not yet acknowledged. In discussions with those in the industry, suffice it to say, the most optimistic assessment is that the industry has at least a few hundred billion in losses yet to be acknowledged.

The larger banks addressed by Congressman Frank are the largest holders of these second liens. These banks do have earnings power given the free flow of liquidity provided by the Fed and accompanying capital markets activities. That is not the case with smaller institutions. How many of those institutions are already dead, but not yet buried?

Wonder why banks are reluctant to provide credit? They need to increase capital knowing these second liens are truly an ongoing sinkhole.

LD

  • Diana L. C.

    LD,

    I am so angry, sad, and worried about the financial situation in our country.  My two boys are young and trying to get ahead.  I fear they don’t have a chance.  Both have solid mortgages and budget their money and keep up with all their other payments.  I find it sad that all the people who overspent might get a chance to game the system at all our expense simply so Wall Street can keep on doing what it’s been doing.

    I worked hard to make a better life for my kids, just as my parents and grandparents did for theirs.  I am tired and angry each time I read about these things, but I do thank you for keeping us informed.  I keep waiting for the next shoe to fall in this economic mess.

  • sowsear

    Yes, Larry, thank you for keeping us up to date on Washington and their “hidden” war against us. I have the same concerns as Diana L. C.above. It seems to be one assault after another from those who are supposed to be working in our interest. Lies, more lies, and damned lies.

  • FrenchNail

    Nothing, absolutely nothing has changed. The banks are still inflating their value on our dime and not lending back, Congress is still encouraging their behavior and participating in the game, and the Administration is still compleasant at best.  There is NOWAY we can avoid another major financial collapse in the future. It is not a question of if but of when.

    To all my friend I say: Get out of debt, get out of the market, convert your traditional IRA into Real Estate IRA and cooper/silver/uranium positions IRA, leave under your means, downsize your house and if you can divert some of your real estate positions out of the dollar zone.

    There is a Tsunami coming, you have been warned, you have only a matter of time to fill your car with whatever you can and head for the hills. Everything else is going to disappear.

  • M Miller

    Please take a look and see who is buying up these troubled banks after the FDIC closes them..Countrywide and its affiliates are now owned by ONEWEST..guess who that is? George Soros and his consortium. He buys these banks because they hold mortgages. On December 24th, 2009 Congress gave Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae UNLIMITED funds to back these mortgages. Does this not make you think? Soros bought a failed bank in LaJolla California with 3 BILLION dollars in assets last month all with 90 million on paper. His bid was one of 20.. MORTGAGE notes. He now has 3 BILLION dollars in federally insured assets for 90 million paper..HELLO.
    This is a scam of gigantic proportions..
    Please call your Congressmen and ask them to ask Barney Frank why he wants to forgive those loans and have the FEDS pay for them? To supply Soros with that money and to avoid putting the real cost of FM and FM on the books? It is TWO TRILLION dollars which would be added to the deficit..

  • Guest

    I agree that this crisis offered a welcomed opportunity to make a permanent shift in our spending habits and to redefine our definition of personal fulfillment to include spiritual and interpersonal relations in addition to material possessions. But that opportunity may be squandered by the government policies to stimulate the economy through bailouts and handouts, rather than encouraging thrift and savings.
    OTOH, although certainly greater saving would help reduce our dependence on foreign sources capital, and improve the long-term economic outlook by increasing investment spending. But in the meantime, the US economy is hooked on credit, and to get things going again in their old proportions, we’ll need to start borrowing again, and soon. For now, it looks like thrift is the last thing America needs. :(

  • Noogan

    Oh, what a web they weave…..because they endeavor to deceive.

    Frank wanted all these banksters to push these people into these homes they couldn’t afford; that was the first moral hazard. Democrats–liberals to be precise–are masters of “unintended consequences” aren’t they? They never met a economic principle they didn’t want to pervert through meddling. 

    Let them fail; let them ALL fail–the people who bought houses they couldn’t afford, along with the banksters who wooed them into it, and the liberal politicians who lied to the people and encouraged all of them to enslave themselves through debt.

    It’s only going to get worse; as David Cay warned, “we will be poorer.” 

    Deal with it. Debt default and bankruptcy is the only way out of this morass, for everyone. Covering up the festering sore that is our economy, is stifling the health of the system, like a flesh-eating bacteria that will eventually kill us. 

  • No Longer Banned in Beantown

    That is the problem, the US is still rewarding bad economic behavior. And the Obama administration is fighting hard to create incentives for being unproductive.

    The US did not become the economic powerhouse that it still is by rewarding failure.

    People and businesses that work hard, pay their bills, and don’t accumulate debt that they cannot afford to pay off should be given tax incentives and tax credits, not the other way around.

    If you give a dog a treat every time it craps the house, you are going to have a house full of crap.

  • Onofre’s arm

    NLBiB wrote:”That is the problem, the US is still rewarding bad economic behavior.”

    This was the principle reason for the economic meltdown, and it is the principle reason that the economy will NOT recover in the near future. As long as banks, auto makers, and unions can run back to Mommy and Daddy government to bail them out of their bad decisions, they’ll keep making bad decisions.

    Not too long ago, bankers and big business owners had their personal fortunes tied to the fates of their operations. If a banker were to allow his bank to go belly up, he stood to lose his house, savings, and any other wealth he had. This type of potential risk was excellent pressure that would force the banker to make good decisions and sound investments. When the government stepped in and eliminated that risk, business practices became sloppy. Add to this the fact that most of the larger entities became incorporated and were owned by stockholders, and you again have a company that is being run by individuals (CEOs) who were insulated from personal loss should the company fail, but the stockholders would get hammered instead.

    How many risky mortgages were funneled into FM & FM, where the taxpayer would eventually be on the hook when they failed? These risky loans were cheerfully made in an atmosphere of little risk to the institution making the original loan, before the ink was dry on the signatures, the loans were sent down the pipe to FM & FM where creeps like Jim Johnson, Franklin Raines, and Jamie Gorelick,( Investigation by the OFHEO detailed in their official report on the accounting scandal in 2006 on page 66 that from 1998 to 2002 Gorelick received a total of $26,466,834.00 in income [at Fannie Mae]) got a piece of every commission from every mortgage that they landed. The system was set up for disaster.

    I realize that the economic meltdown had a multitude of reasons, but this particular issue is a prime example of how the best intentions of government, are usually just more bricks in the road to Hell.

  • elaine

    Punishing savings & rewarding debt, what’s new?

  • No Longer Banned in Beantown

    After being a shill for years for Fannie, Freddie and easy mortgage money, Barney Fife , I mean Frank, is in no position to lecture anyone about sound financial principals.

  • No Longer Banned in Beantown

    I saw a movie on TCM a few weeks ago, and I can’t remember the name of it, but there was a classic line from a banking president.

    “We cannot risk our depositors money with risky loans.”

    The movie was made right after WWII and possibly in 1945. A loan officer had issued a questionable loan to a GI with no collateral.

    The Bank President questioned the Loan Officer, who relpied that although the GI had no tangible collateral, he did have a strong work ethic, and that was his collateral.

    The Loan Officer being a former Master Sergeant said his experience in the war gave him insight on who was dependible and who was a slacker. The Bank President agreed and the GI got the loan.

    We are no longer responsible to depositors, or shareholders. We make no distinction between those that hard work and those that slack off. By God just because you are a slacker doesn’t mean it isn’t your God given right to a Big Beautiful House, Health Insurance, and what ever else you don’t have.

  • EllenD

    The liens must be largely written off so that Washington can then compel banks to engage in writing down principal on first liens in an attempt to keep people in their homes.

    Bingo! Thank you Mr. Doyle.
    For those of you who wonder why banks are not adjusting first mortgages and doing short sales, despite their protests that they are doing so, they are also holding the SECOND MORTGAGE on the house with an equityline.  Any change in the first mortgage they would make would destroy the value of the second.
    Like you, I don’t know how long they can delay the inevitable.
    This may be why the General Accounting Principles were changed.

  • HARP

    Just love this.

  • Guest

    Barney Frank is doing a great job. There is probably no one in Washington who is balancing the issues of the financial industry and the taxpayer better than Frank.

  • Onofre’s arm

    Hey guest, we’re talking about Barney Frank here, not Barney Fife.

    I will give him credit for one thing though, he sure has managed to shovel truckloads of shit onto American taxpayers with getting too much of it on him.

  • Guest

    same old meaningless comments. Why not say something of some value like I disagree with you, I think Barney Frank is not doing his job and here is why….. or explain why you think heis shoveling truckloads of shit onto American taxpayers. I would love for you to explain that one exactlly….

    having been a watcher of Frank for years I think he is one of the best ones we got. straight shooter, smart and good at balance all the competing issues and pressures.

  • oowawa

    Hi guest–enjoy this.

  • Onofre’s arm

    Neither of your comments provides a single reference to anything Frank has done. Your posts simply have the shallow tenor of a cheerleader’s chant. Barney is good, a straight shooter, (what image THAT conjures, yuk) and smart? Where are YOUR footnotes? Your first post was so vacuous and generic, essentially a Barney bumper sticker, that it didn’t deserve more than the quip I gave it.

  • Guest

    A completely bias and BS post the you link to. Where exactly is Frank lying, as the title of the post says. There is absolutely nothing inconsistent with Frank asking financial firms to write down their second liens to market and what Frank and Kanjorski have said in the past about mark-to-market accounting. The author to your linked post does not know what he is talking about. In fact, Kanjorski has said exactly the opposite as the post author you link to says. I think the author of the post you link to is the liar. Frank and Kanjorski never forced any changes. They held a hearing to look into it. Show me a link where it says Frank actually forced through accounting changes.

    At their March hearing they said:

    “Kanjorski said that Congress “cannot allow for fantasy accounting that wishes away bad assets by merely concealing them.” Kanjorski is chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises.
    Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), asked about mark-to-market accounting in February, said that he doesn’t believe it should be abolished but also doesn’t believe that Congress should be in the business of regulating specific accounting standards.

    “I want to find a way — within the existing independent standard-setting structure — to still provide investors with the information needed to make effective decisions without continuing to impose undue burdens on financial institutions,” said Kanjorski. “Each of our anticipated witnesses will have the opportunity to contribute as we all pursue consensus solutions together to this thorny, contentious issue.”

  • Guest

    oowawa,

    A completely bias and BS post the you link to. Where exactly is Frank lying, as the title of the post says. There is absolutely nothing inconsistent with Frank asking financial firms to write down their second liens to market and what Frank and Kanjorski have said in the past about mark-to-market accounting. The author to your linked post does not know what he is talking about. In fact, Kanjorski has said exactly the opposite as the post author you link to says. I think the author of the post you link to is the liar. Frank and Kanjorski never forced any changes. They held a hearing to look into it. Show me a link where it says Frank actually forced through accounting changes.  
     
     
    At their March hearing they said:  
     
    “Kanjorski said that Congress “cannot allow for fantasy accounting that wishes away bad assets by merely concealing them.” Kanjorski is chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises.  
    Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), asked about mark-to-market accounting in February, said that he doesn’t believe it should be abolished but also doesn’t believe that Congress should be in the business of regulating specific accounting standards.  
     
    “I want to find a way — within the existing independent standard-setting structure — to still provide investors with the information needed to make effective decisions without continuing to impose undue burdens on financial institutions,” said Kanjorski. “Each of our anticipated witnesses will have the opportunity to contribute as we all pursue consensus solutions together to this thorny, contentious issue.”

  • Guest

    arm,

    my comment was in reference to the above post by Larry Doyle where he talks about what Frank is doing about trying to motivate banks to restructure residential mortgages. Frank has been trying for well over a year now to clean up this mess. lets hope he is successful. very few others, particularly on the Republican side, are doing anyting on financial regulation (actually Republicans will block new financial regulation) and trying to clean up the mortgage mess. It is admirable what Frank is doing. There are show horse and work horses in congress and clearly Frank is one of the work horses.

  • Diana L. C.

    Are you suggesting as Bush did in regardt ot supporting our soldiers, that the best way to get out of this mes is by shopping, shopping, shopping? 

    Your comment it quite strange.

  • jbjd

    The Best Years of our Lives.  Great movie.

  • jbjd
  • guest

    jbjb,

    Another bullshit link to a bullshit right-wing crazy website. First, it if very debatable about whether Fannie and Freddie Mac were doing anything wrong whatsoever. The reality if you know what was going on was that Fannie and Freddie did not source one single mortgage. There is a very good case that they were a vicitim in the housing crisis.

    “The second claim from advocates of deregulation is that the roots of the current crisis lie in efforts to encourage Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do more to help low- and moderate-income homeowners. The assertion is that Democrats encouraged financial recklessness by insisting that Fannie and Freddie fulfill their congressionally mandated public purposes by expanding access to home mortgage loans to non-creditworthy borrowers. But again, the argument is not supported by the facts.

    The Clinton administration explicitly discouraged Fannie and Freddie from buying predatory subprime loans. A report on predatory lending in 2000 from a task force formed by the Treasury Department and the Department of Housing and Urban Development called for Congress to enact legislation to “prohibit the purchase by each of these entities of predatory loans.”

    Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and Gary Gensler, an undersecretary of the Treasury, were severely criticized by the Republican Congress in 1999 and 2000 when they called for reforms to address the systemic risk from Fannie and Freddie and to reconsider their government line of credit. When the Clinton administration left office, the two mortgage firms were still bit players in the subprime market.

    The subprime boom was led by investment banks and mortgage brokers, not by government-sponsored enterprises.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/18/opinion/18barr.html?_r=1

    “But here’s the thing: Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do with the explosion of high-risk lending a few years ago, an explosion that dwarfed the S.& L. fiasco. In fact, Fannie and Freddie, after growing rapidly in the 1990s, largely faded from the scene during the height of the housing bubble.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/14/opinion/14krugman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

    Second, there is no evidence the Barney Frank had any control about what was going on at Freddie and Fannie Mac. The reality is that Republican had control of the everything from 2000 to Jan. 2007 when the housing bubble built and therefore they had the ability to change anything they wanted at Fannie and Freddie Mac.

    And from Frank himself:

    “Dealey then cites comments I made in 2003 that the GSEs are not in trouble as evidence that I did not support reform. Wrong. I supported reform then, I support reform now and I delivered. Dealey also fails to report that the Bush Administration did not support the reform efforts of Republican former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Mike Oxley, who recently told the Financial Times that the White House gave him “the one-finger salute” for his efforts to bring about GSE reform.
    I also supported—with major opposition from the Bush Administration and their conservative Congressional allies—a tough federal law against predatory lending, and I urged then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to write regulations based on the Home Owners Equity Protection Act passed by a Democratic Congress in 1994. Those regulations would have outlawed many of the irresponsible lending practices that fueled the housing bubble and now threaten the entire economy”

    http://www.usnews.com/blogs/sam-dealey/2008/09/12/speaking-frank-ly–barney-frank-fires-back-on-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac.html

  • Larry Doyle

    Mr. Guest, 

    The record shows that Mr. Frank was integrally involved in the enormous growth of Freddie’s and Fannies platform throughout the 90s and ’00s. Barney only got religion recently. Freddie and Fannie had a huge competitive advantage given their very cheap source of funding and they grew their internal portfolios to drive profits (and enormous bonuses for senior management).

    The fact is Congressman Richard Baker (R-LA) and the Wall Street Journal editorial page were the loudest voices calling for reform of F and F starting in the late ’90s. John McCain joined in somewhat but not too loudly.

    Barney and team were banging the drum for F and F to be left alone because they helped promote housing. 

    Freddie actually played a big role in cleaning up some of the abuses within the sub-prime industry but Freddie bought a lot of sub-prime paper from the late ’90s on while Fannie bought a lot of Alt-A paper. 

    Barney was no reformer. 

  • ogee

    Obot stinkin up the isle with pro barney propaganda. Even a child can see that we are screwed just by looking at barney. He is the dumbest piece of shit they have next to knarly Nancy. One look and one listen to him and you know why this country is in the hole. Is this the best we can do? There are no work horses in congress of whom you mention. These people are as dumb and lazy as a bag of rocks. There are exceptions but the ones you mention are not it.

  • DB

    Elaine, I tried to tell Democrats about Barack Hussein Obama. I tried to tell them, but they were so focused on hating GWB, they wouldn’t listen. I had a talk with a Dem a few weeks ago. She was still going on about how stupid W is. Finally, I couldn’t take it anymore and I was screaming at her in the middle of a restaurant: Jeeezus god, give it a rest already! Our experiment in republican government (NOT democratic government) may end this week when Pelosi brings the gavel down. Obama’s health care death grip will squeeze the last drops of blood out of the American people. Democrats will finally have ALL the power, but they will rule over a dead carcass. We will be enslaved to the Democratic Party and its the union thugs who own them. How’s it feel to have worked your whole life so that you now have to hand it all over to some UAW asshole in Detroit who already earns a six figure salary? Oh you don’t like our new arrangements for health care? Rocko will show up at your house with a baseball bat to take care of your little attitude problem. Nowhuddamean? :(

  • No Longer Banned in Beantown

    Why is Barney still around? He belongs in the land of the extinct purple dinosaur.

  • Guest

    Mr. Doyle,

    This is nothing wrong with the growth of Fannie and Freddie. They play a very good and important role in financial and mortgage markets. They put millions in their houses. By the way Fannie and Freddie did not originate one single bad mortgage or sell one crooket mortgage. They are not in the origination game.

    It is debatable how much Fannie and Freddie have had a competitive advantage. In fact, if you check the record with a little more of a pointed pencil you will see that these two agencies actually lost signficant market share during the run-up and height of the housing bubble between 2003 to 2007 to the private sector. From Krugman “In fact, Fannie and Freddie, after growing rapidly in the 1990s, largely faded from the scene during the height of the housing bubble.” See my links above.

    I think Frank would disagree with your comment that he is not a reformer. Where do you get that from? From his quotes above:

    I supported reform then, I support reform now and I delivered. Dealey also fails to report that the Bush Administration did not support the reform efforts of Republican former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Mike Oxley, who recently told the Financial Times that the White House gave him “the one-finger salute” for his efforts to bring about GSE reform.  

    I also supported—with major opposition from the Bush Administration and their conservative Congressional allies—a tough federal law against predatory lending, and I urged then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to write regulations based on the Home Owners Equity Protection Act passed by a Democratic Congress in 1994. Those regulations would have outlawed many of the irresponsible lending practices that fueled the housing bubble and now threaten the entire economy”

    Where is your proof that Frank did not do these things?

    You just repeat the same Republican narratives supported with zero facts designed to tear Frank down. Good luck! He is way to smart for that.

    You first try to blame Freddie and Fannie for the housing bubble, they no doubt played a role, but that role is being exaggerated by those Republicans trying to escape the blame themselves, and then you try and pin Frank to Freddie and label him not being a reformer or some how suggesting he had the power when his party was not in power.  The reality is that Frank has been a very hard worker in trying to push reform and clean up this mess. Very few others are actually doing anything. Frank is also excellent at balancing the needs and issues of the financial industry with those of the tax payer. The reality is the Fannie and Freddie were also vicitims of the housing bubble and play and continue to play a very important role in this country.

  • Guest

    LD,

    How is this for leadership?

    “Republicans who moaned about President Barack Obama’s broken C-SPAN promises on health care negotiations, beware: Barney Frank plans to demand an old-school conference on financial reform. ‘Remember this, ‘Let’s do it all on C-SPAN? … Clear your calendar,’ Frank told POLITICO…”

    http://www.politico.com/morningmoney/0310/morningmoney100.html

  • Guest

    Part I

    Larry Doyle,

    Here is an article for you.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aeSenIUvpSK0&pos=10

    Obama Defies Pessimists as Rising Economy Converges With Stocks

    March 10 (Bloomberg) — The political consensus may be that President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy has been weak. The judgment of money in all its forms has been overwhelmingly positive, and that may be the more lasting appraisal.

    One year after U.S stocks hit their post-financial-crisis low on March 9, 2009, the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen more than 68 percent, and it’s up more than 41 percent since Obama took office. Credit spreads have narrowed. Commodity prices have surged. Housing prices have stabilized.

    “We’ve had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “If he was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the president.”

    The economy has also strengthened beyond expectations at the time Obama took office

    . The gross domestic product grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, compared with a median forecast of 2.0 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists a week before Obama’s Jan. 20, 2009, inauguration. The median forecast for GDP growth this year is 3.0 percent, according to Bloomberg’s February survey of economists, versus 2.1 percent for 2010 in the survey taken 13 months earlier.

    You have to give them — along with the Federal Reserve – - a lot of credit,” said Joseph Carson, director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. “A year ago, there was panic, as well as concern. And a lot of the expectations were not only that we were going to have declines in activity but they would stretch all the way to 2010, if not 2011.”

    Job Losses Ease
    Since then, monthly job losses have abated, from 779,000 during the month Obama took office to 36,000 last month. Corporate profits have grown; among 491 companies in the S&P 500 that reported fourth-quarter earnings, profits rose 180 percent from a year ago, according to Bloomberg data. Durable goods orders in January were up 9.3 percent from a year earlier. Inflation is tame, and long-term interest rates remain low.

    Still, the economy has become a political burden for Obama. Voters give his administration little credit for its performance, while the unemployment rate remains high, at 9.7 percent in February.
    Public opinion of Obama’s handling of the economy has gone from 59 percent approval in February 2009 to 61 percent disapproval this February, according to Gallup polls.

    Critical of Deficit
    The budget deficits the administration has run up have stirred criticism from investment managers and economists, as well as voters. The Congressional Budget Office projects Obama’s spending proposals would produce a record $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year and a $1.3 trillion deficit in 2011.

    The investment returns and economic data don’t impress some Obama critics.

    “Coming off a level that was ridiculously low isn’t much to boast about,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research. “What most people care about is the economy creating jobs. It’s still not.”

  • Guest

    Part I

    Larry Doyle,

    Here is an article for you.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aeSenIUvpSK0&pos=10

    Obama Defies Pessimists as Rising Economy Converges With Stocks

    March 10 (Bloomberg) — The political consensus may be that President Barack Obama’s handling of the economy has been weak. The judgment of money in all its forms has been overwhelmingly positive, and that may be the more lasting appraisal.

    One year after U.S stocks hit their post-financial-crisis low on March 9, 2009, the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen more than 68 percent, and it’s up more than 41 percent since Obama took office. Credit spreads have narrowed. Commodity prices have surged. Housing prices have stabilized.

    “We’ve had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “If he was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the president.”

    The economy has also strengthened beyond expectations at the time Obama took office. The gross domestic product grew at a 5.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, compared with a median forecast of 2.0 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists a week before Obama’s Jan. 20, 2009, inauguration. The median forecast for GDP growth this year is 3.0 percent, according to Bloomberg’s February survey of economists, versus 2.1 percent for 2010 in the survey taken 13 months earlier.

    You have to give them — along with the Federal Reserve – - a lot of credit,” said Joseph Carson, director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York. “A year ago, there was panic, as well as concern. And a lot of the expectations were not only that we were going to have declines in activity but they would stretch all the way to 2010, if not 2011.”

    Job Losses Ease
    Since then, monthly job losses have abated, from 779,000 during the month Obama took office to 36,000 last month. Corporate profits have grown; among 491 companies in the S&P 500 that reported fourth-quarter earnings, profits rose 180 percent from a year ago, according to Bloomberg data. Durable goods orders in January were up 9.3 percent from a year earlier. Inflation is tame, and long-term interest rates remain low.

    Still, the economy has become a political burden for Obama. Voters give his administration little credit for its performance, while the unemployment rate remains high, at 9.7 percent in February.
    Public opinion of Obama’s handling of the economy has gone from 59 percent approval in February 2009 to 61 percent disapproval this February, according to Gallup polls.

    Critical of Deficit
    The budget deficits the administration has run up have stirred criticism from investment managers and economists, as well as voters. The Congressional Budget Office projects Obama’s spending proposals would produce a record $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year and a $1.3 trillion deficit in 2011.

    The investment returns and economic data don’t impress some Obama critics.

    “Coming off a level that was ridiculously low isn’t much to boast about,” said Dean Baker, co-director of the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research. “What most people care about is the economy creating jobs. It’s still not.”

  • Guest

    Part II

    Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, said the public’s opinion of the economy is likely to improve as the gains companies have made begin to translate into more jobs and higher wages.

    “Businesses are doing very well but households have yet to benefit,” Zandi said. “Households will eventually benefit, but they’ll have to see it before they believe it.”

    300,000 Jobs Seen
    The U.S. may add as many as 300,000 jobs in March, the most in four years, David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

    Zandi said the economic rebound is largely a result of the policies of the White House and Federal Reserve

    . He cited the bank bailout, the Fed’s low-interest-rate policy and support for credit markets, and the Obama administration’s stimulus plan, bank stress tests and backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    When you take it all together, the response was massive and unprecedented and ultimately successful,” Zandi said.

    Phil Swagel, who was assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy in George W. Bush’s administration, considers himself a critic of Obama, though he said the White House policies were crucial.

    They could have done a better job, but their economic policies, including the stimulus, have helped move the economy in the right direction,” said Swagel, now an economics professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.

    Productivity Gains
    While jobs have been slow to come back even as GDP is growing, the gains in productivity during the past year will strengthen the economy, said Greenhaus of Miller Tabak. Productivity grew at a 6.9 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, capping the biggest one-year gain since 2002.

    While small businesses still have difficulty getting loans, credit markets have thawed. Spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds have narrowed from 5.13 percentage points on the day Obama took office to 1.63 percentage points on March 8, according to Barclays Capital.

    Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages have dropped from an average 5.20 percent on Inauguration Day to 5.03 percent on March 8, according to Bankrate.com.

    Housing prices, which dropped since 2007 and proved a drag on the economy, have firmed. The median sales price for existing homes in January was the same as a year earlier.

    International currency markets are bullish on the dollar
    , which has rallied more than 8 percent since Nov. 25, according to the Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index. And
    commodity prices are up more than 32 percent since Obama took office, according to the UBS Bloomberg Commodity Index.

    There’s definitely legs in this recovery,” said John Silvia, chief economist for Wells Fargo Securities. “There’s progress being made at the national level. But in their own situations, a lot of people are still struggling.”

  • M Miller

    For all of you responding by saying Barney Frank was not involved with the risky business FM & FM engaged in..you are not informed. Barney’s partner was the head of FM and Barney actually went on tevelvision in a news hour and reported to the country that FM was sound and Amercians should invest…these statements were recorded and played over and over. This was after Congress (Repubs) reported the bad loans..
    None of this is the point now..they are bad news and Frank asked that the agencies be disbanded and the bad debt forgiven and wiped off of the books of the US..The agencies have never been on the books because, if they were, since they have been once again given UNLIMITED tax payers dollars (DECEMBER 24, 2009), they would have to be added to OBAMAS many trillion dollar deficit..to the tune now of two trillion in bad debt from FM & FM to the US. Not encouraging..all of this debt and all of the paper came from an all DEMOCRATIC controlled congress…The house led by BARNEY FRANK and his partner who worked at FM and collected over a million dollars in bonus money for writing all of the bad paper.
    Get back on point and listen..Soros is buying up many of the FDIC failed banks..for pennies on the dollar all over the country. Look at where Countrywide went..straight to SOROS. For very little..what he got was BILLIONS in FM and FM (government backed) mortgage paper. He added 40 BILLION dollars to his bottom line compliments of FM & FM unlimited bailout money..Do you not get this?
    We are paying over and over to this man via the likes of OBAMA and his ‘consortium’..Geitner, Dodd, Frank..et al. We are paying him billions as he picks up these failed banks all over the country and on December 24, 2009 Congress led by Barney Frank and Chriss Dod gave him the money by granting unlimited funds to bail FM & FM. Put it together and ask yourself why Barney Frank wants to disband these institutions now? So he and his fellow merrymen do not get caught with hteir hands in Soros’ pocket.
    Soros bought Move On. Org and was through his ‘political’ acumen the largest donor to Obama and his idiots SEIU..put it together..where do you think the SEIU got 60 million to donate to Obama?
    Soros..

  • Larry Doyle

    Nice try.

    I worked within this space for 25 yrs. Barney was no reformer.

    The executives who ran Fannie and Freddie ran the private profit (big bonus) social loss trick to precision.

    Save Barney’s hyperbole about his reforms, he PUSHED the Freddie/ Fannie agenda for a LONG time.   

  • Larry Doyle

    You know you really do not know what you are talking about when you try to make the case that Freddie and Fannie did not have a decided advantage. 

    Anybody and everybody anywhere close to the business, knows Freddie and Fannie had an enormous advantage in funding their operations given their quasi-governmental status. 

    Your copying and pasting quotes and assertions put forth by Barney does nothing to change the fact that his efforts to promote homeownership actually served to exacerbate the irresponsible lending within the industry. Them’s the facts!!

  • elaine

    MMiller, I’m glad I came back to this thread & found your comment. Although I just can’t help but wonder why everyone, but you, thinks Countrywide was taken over by Bank of America not Soros. Soros, I think, is heavily invested in Citi. You may be interested in George Soros Jan 28 Interview on Bank Regulation at Bloomberg. The video is a bit lengthy but worth the listen if you want insight into his mind & hence Obama’s mind.

  • Guest

    M Miller,

    So just because Frank went on TV to say that Fannie and Freddie were sound, how exactly does that mean that he was some how involved in some kind of conspiracy around these institutions, with which it is very debatable that they were responsible for the economic and housing meltdown to start with? Fannie and Freddie played a roll, but not the central roll in the housing meltdown.

    Alot of people were saying at that time, a very long time ago ,that Fannie and Freddie were sound, including the Bush adminstration and financial markets. In fact, if the Bush admin who at the time held all the power, did not think they were sound, why didn’t they do something about it?

    The rest of your rant is not even worth a comment because it completely does not make sense. You provide no proof to back up you profound statements. Real financial conspiracy stuff.