Comments on: Obama “Adjusts” Ad Buys

By: The Donner Party « Not Your Sweetie

The Donner Party « Not Your Sweetie — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 13:51:24 +0000

[...] there was any truth to the article, then why is Obama scaling down his ad buys (just like Kerry did in 2004, BTW) that Obama is pulling ads from certain Red States. The key word, [...]

By: elise

elise — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 09:49:45 +0000

RMH, can you believe what’s happend with Udall? I never gave Schaffer a second thought because I thought this was a no-brainer.

By: elise

elise — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 09:12:30 +0000

Please, dg. I have seen polls where less than 50% of her voters will vote for Obama in Nov. I hope you find some comfort in polls. When the fog clears away, you can use reason and your own intellect to unravel all the pure, unadultrated, politics as usual to find the truth. I can give you Hillary’s history, defend her against the lies and the smears, point out all the bizarre circumstances which have led to an unknown, freshman senator winning the nomination on the Party, but I know only time will bring wisdom.

By: Rocky Mountain High

Rocky Mountain High — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:39:11 +0000

Obama should be way ahead now, taking the margin of error, it is essentially a statistical tie. Past Democratic contenders who ended up losing in the end, such as Kerry and Gore were 10-16 pts ahead at this point in the race – and look what happened to them. There’s no way Obama can win this now with Biden in tow.

By: stodghie

stodghie — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:28:50 +0000

ok hokey dokey, you are still acting the fool.

By: elise

elise — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:20:45 +0000

Don’t talk to me about the rules of the game dg. The rules say Hillary Clinton should be nominated at the convention and have a fair vote without someone stealing her delegates. You can’t have it both ways you know. If you have a caucus state, the only votes you count are the caucus votes and those are the rules of the game. I’m sure we (Hillary’s supporters) would be happy to go back and have primary votes in Iowa and the other caucus states. And what about automatic delegates,dg? Obama doesn’t have enough earned delegates to win the nomination yet he was never asked to drop out. Yeah. delegates. Well, they were bought, threatened and pressured by the Party in the here and now, to support the DNC choice. Wake up! McCain is 72yrs old and the member of a Party which by all estimates is not very popular and was never given a chance to win this election. Obama will go down in Nov. and how much satisfaction will that give you? I have heard all the excuses and rationalization from the media and people like you, but I am a logical, long time activist in the Democratic party and I will tell you it’s crap. The Republicans have already begun their attacks much sooner than anyone believed, which would have been after the convention. And in the here and now, these attacks from Obama about how many houses McCain’s wife owns are, where did i hear this, silliness. He says his wife is out of bounds and I say if he thinks anything is out of bounds, he is out of touch with reality and so are you. If he thinks he can use race baiting against them, he is delusional. If anyone thinks they can use McCains age, they should look at the demographics to see what percentage of voters are over 40yrs. This is insanity, but you are right about one thing. It will take a miracle for people to find that out before it’s too late. This is a result of a group of idiots in the party who wanted to grab power and don’t have enough common sense to see the destruction it would cause.

By: Rocky Mountain High

Rocky Mountain High — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:20:33 +0000

Elise, I’m in CO too, and I have shifted away from Udall, eventhough I voted for him for years now as my congressman. What is it about the Democrats lately? The only thing they seem to be good at is losing elections they are suppose to win. BO’s choice of Biden instead of HIllary will surely split the party, there can never be unity now, and anyone who thinks 4 days of partying in downtown Denver is enough to heal the fissure is in denial. This kind of wound will take much more time and energy than that, I mean we’re talking about women here. But this just shows how incredibly sexist Obama is. His recent attack ad against Cindy McCain is not only in poor taste, but totally hypocritical, when Obama made it very clear wives should be off limit. But worse than that, he is mocking someone who has achieved the American Dream. There is nothing wrong with being wealthy, abundance is our natural state of being, what people need is to appreciate and awaken to that more, and make America wealthy again. Obama is a Marxist, pehaps he should use his Indonesian Passport and travel to South America or Africa and take over one of those nations? Obama is dangerous for America, and now he could never win the election by cozying up with Biden. He has just alienated 18 million voters. Just another of Obama’s poor decisions, which is a consistent pattern that shows how he lacks good judgment.

By: dg

dg — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:10:12 +0000

Update:

“I believe 18mil others will see the same pictures and hear the same words and they will ask why. ” (elise)

Lifetime Network Poll, August 5, 2008:

“Of those [women] who voted for Clinton, 76 percent said they would vote for Obama while 18 percent would vote for McCain.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0532505820080805

By: dg

dg — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:00:50 +0000

Poll of women voters, Reuters article from August 5, 2008:

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0532505820080805

“The poll, commissioned by Lifetime Network as part of its “Every Woman Counts” campaign to engage women in politics, showed Obama leading McCain by 49 percent to 38 percent.”

[snip]

“Asked who they planned to vote for in November, Obama led in all age groups except the over-65s, where McCain led by 46 percent to 37 percent. Women were split on racial lines, with blacks picking Obama by 89 percent to 4 percent and Hispanics by 62 percent to 21 percent. White women favored McCain by 47 percent to 38 percent.”

[snip]

“Asked who they voted for in the primary elections or caucus, 29 percent said they voted for Obama, 15 percent for McCain and 21 percent for Clinton, who would have been the first woman president of the United States.

“Of those who voted for Clinton, 76 percent said they would vote for Obama while 18 percent would vote for McCain.”

[end cite]

That sink in yet? “Of those [women] who voted for Clinton, 76 percent said they would vote for Obama while 18 percent would vote for McCain.”

Let’s compare the overall women’s vote 2008 today and 2004, early September:

2008: Obama 49, McCain 38

2004, early September: Bush 48, Kerry 43

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/20/politics/campaign/20women.html

By mid-October 2004: Kerry 50, Bush 40

Kerry had turned the woman vote around in a month and a half, as the Democrats came home. With Obama already picking up 76% of Clinton’s women voters, he’s already ahead of the game.

Let’s see what the polls say in mid-October ’08.

By: dg

dg — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 07:12:09 +0000

“You are playing the sandbox game of “I know you are but what am I?””

So it’s ok for Hope to accuse me of lying, which I’m clearly not (we’re simply relying on different polling sites), but it’s not ok to call Hope on it.

The selective outrage is alive and well here.

By: dg

dg — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 06:59:27 +0000

“Anyway you look at it, more votes were cast for Hillary Clinton during the primaries than for Obama. ”

You’re including the caucus votes, of course, yes?

And even if you’re not, both parties agreed to the rules of the game — the delegate count. And Obama gained more delegates than Sen. Clinton, enough to secure his nomination. “Anyway you look at it.”

“You can talk about what might have been if Obama had left his name on MI ballot, but he didn’t. His choice. ”

I never talked about what might have been; you’re having an argument with yourself, elise.

“I believe 18mil others will see the same pictures and hear the same words and they will ask why. ”

I believe that you believe that. I just disagree that’s that’s the case is all.

“Now, why do you want to talk about bumps and Biden”

Because that’s where we are in the here and now. In the here and now, Hillary isn’t the Democratic candidate. In the here and now, Obama and Biden are the Democratic ticket. In the here and now, Obama has continued to either tie or lead McCain in every Rasmussen and Gallup tracking poll since the primary season ended. In the here and now, only one polling aggregate, RCP, has McCain ahead in the EV, while two others, Pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com, continue to have Obama ahead in the EV.

In the here and now, the Democratic Party will nominate Obama and Biden as their Presidential and Vice-Presidential choices. In the here and now, the Republican Party will nominate McCain and his running mate not yet announced.

That’s the here and now. If you wish to either sit this election out or vote for McCain, no one is denying you your right to do that. If you choose to vote for McCain, a man who represents nearly everything Hillary has ever fought against, do what you think is best, and no one will or should dismiss you for it.

I respect your principles. Calling me “childish” for pointing out real numbers, isn’t principled.

By: JozefAL

JozefAL — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 06:45:45 +0000

You seem to forget that among “women” is a strange sub-category known as “African-American women” who, quite likely, make up the vast majority of Obama’s female support. Presuming that Obama gets the same level of support among African-American women that he got in the primaries/caucuses, I’d say that Obama’s support among WHITE women is about on par with McCain. African-Americans make up roughly 13% of the total population; AAs were 90% for Obama in the primaries; 13% of 90–or 90% of 13–comes to 11.7. And, even rounding down, 11 from 53 is 42.
Then, too, you might want to note that support among women in general is DOWN (that little “compared to 55 – 36 percent last month” is there for a reason). That is NOT a good sign (especially as McCain’s support actually INCREASED more than Obama’s decreased).

By: dg

dg — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 06:45:37 +0000

“Anyone is allowed to post here dg. Does that mean we do have a right to challenge you?”

Of course. Challenge me. As I try to challenge you (the generic you)I. I like debate on substance. Not to be confused with 4th-grade-level taunts.

By: elise

elise — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 06:07:46 +0000

Anyone is allowed to post here dg. Does that mean we do have a right to challenge you? You must be thinking of Huffpo or kos.

By: heather

heather — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 05:56:00 +0000

Just more proof that the Dems should nominate someone who can win the battleground states. Someone like … Hillary. Anyone with a brain knew that throughout the primary. But clearly Dean, Pelosi, and company lack brains.