A couple of points.

The people at ERCI, like Lakshman Achuthan, are constantly say that they wont make a recession forecast until there is also a downturn in the LLI, not just the WLI. So not sure the ERCI tells us much.

See the CNBC interview on their website here:

http://www.businesscycle.com/

Lakshman Achuthan, one of the guys who has created the index, says the index points to slower growth, but not necessarily a recession. He also say there is “no double dip imminent”.

The other commentator in the interview about the index says we are just in a new phase of the recovery. A new more mature phase that represents slower growth, but this is still healthy and makes a recovery more likely to last longer.

Also in a July 14 Bloomberg interview Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI said an economic slow down is likely, but not a recession. This is not a surprise, as many economists have been suggesting this.

However, beyond this index, corporate earnings certainly point to a better economy, certainly much better than where we were a year ago. There is also evidence that CEOs are starting to spend again, so I suspect more job growth is likely to follow. However, we do have a large hole to climb out of and it will take a while.

You mean as opposed to the American stress test that was INSANELY easy to pass?

What?!

There will be no blood?!

::slighty turn up creepy bumper music in background::

Now I’m disappointed…

::creepy symphonic bumper music at full volume::