Worth Watching. 

Charlie Cook is a pro’s pro who makes calls based on moving numbers and historical models and is entirely absent of palaver or rancor.

He could be talking about the behavior science of passionate, partisan bunnies and it would sound the same witty and modest wise observation — the sort of talk when men hold their hands out, palms upturned, and shrug while looking in the near distance. (Jerry Seib, WSJ, is a first-rate political pundit as well as a careful, quiet, discreet Democrat — most trenchant and reliable.)

The numbers show a wave election that will sweep the GOP into the House and leave it a few seats short in the Senate — with a much better opportunity for the Senate in 2012 even if the GOP puts up a sentimental zombie for a top of the ticket.

The trends in place for the House show a gain of 35-45 at the very minimum — not because POTUS is a Muslim bunny, nor because Nancy Pelosi is a flippant Frenchwoman, but rather because the jobs numbers are ghastly, and the housing numbers are fake.  The Obama administration went for the stimulus to prod the economy just enough by election day in order to make the claim that we are on the right path.  

The markets do not believe Washington and have started talking randomly about the next Black Swan (known only after the fact) and those Hindenburg open-tickets to Lakehurst.  Shrug.  The housing program is the monster in the basement.

The foreclosure gambit by the Treasury means that we have fake housing numbers because folk have been allowed to game the system and stay in their houses after stopping their mortgage payments.  This keeps the house off the market, keeps their houses without overhead, and completely wrecks the comp prices on their streets and in their towns.

Who can have confidence to buy when the Feds and the banks are warehousing inventory that is 30-50% overpriced and won’t be marked down until after you buy at the phony price?  See the video below from my favorite Jim the Realtor re how Fannie is scheming in North San Diego County to hide the real decline in house prices in order to prop up the banks (who would have to mark down their asset sheets) and to hope and hop and hope and hop that prices rebound so they can move their shadow inventory stuff.   Shrug.  They pretend to fool us and we pretend to be entertained.  The midterm is nearly now locked in as a wave swamp tsunami that will make the GOP feel important.  What we do to the GOP after it has the House is not for the family hour programming.   There will be blood. 

black swan.jpg
  • creeper

    Oh, isn’t THIS special?  I got an e-mail from Kos.  Yup…mailed direct to my very own inbox.  Kos wants me to contact my representatives to pass legislation outlawing the filibuster.

    Are you kidding me?  Support removal of the one impediment to total Democratic control of our government?  That’ll be the day.

  • vermont

    where is the housing video referenced?

  • oowawa


  • oowawa

    He was a brute!  He whacked the poor little thing with his oar.  It just wanted to get out of the water!  It’s hard to be a creature in this world . . .

  • Faye

    Didn’t former President Carter claim to have been attacked by a bunnie or rabbitt during his one and only term?

  • getfitnow

    Can you say Paul Ryan? :*

  • getfitnow

    Couldn’t resist, Sassy:

  • getfitnow

    I’m all for it.

  • EllenD

    Compared to that, fixing the problems is a breeze. 

    I sure hope you are right, jbjd.

  • My Site (click to edit)

    Actually, the house went to the bank and then someone in the family would buy it.  That happened several times and the original owners are still in the house.  For some odd reason, we all pay high maintenance fees and our community has strict covenants so the town will look attractive, but this guy gets away with letting his lawn go to seed because the house is always in flux.  That lowers the value of our houses even more, living on the same block with the eyesore of the neighborhood.

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  • EWard


    In normal times, the Republicans would govern as before.  However, with rampant unemployment, debt, immigration, and so on, things are going to change.  The nation wants divided government and Cook’s interview was amazing. 

  • EWard

    My Site

    Appraisals of foreclosed homes  – It is my understanding that appraisers use the last sold price of a home and that includes foreclosures or short sales.  I doubt that the house across the street changed legal owners four times because the original owner would have been evicted long ago.  My guess is the bank still owns the home and it hasn’t sold yet.     

  • creeper

    Note to the GOP:  Be careful what you wish for.  You may get it.

  • jbjd

    DLCHNTC, please, be optimistic.  The articles posted on NQ only deal with laws broken to pull off the fraud at the convention.  But, especially after the final piece, everyone will know how this was done.  And this arms people with the means to prevent this from happening in the future (if not punishing worngdoers for breaking these laws in the past).  Together with the articles on my blog regarding massive ballot fraud – that is, putting names on the ballot in states that require candidate elegibility, without first ascertaining these candidates are actually eligible for the job – these provide ample information for voters to both tighten up existing legislation where necessary but also ramp up enforcement and prosecution.  No need to be pessimistic.  The biggest obstacle was in identifying what went wrong.  Compared to that, fixing the problems is a breeze. 

  • Guest
  • Sassy

    Good comment Diana L.C.
    Republicans will retake the House and make gains in the Senate. They will then face enormous fiscal challenges, and the public’s patience is at an end.
    We probably have decades of difficulty ahead, but I now trust republicans more than democrats on the budget issues.

  • Sassy

    oowawa, please don’t do a “Hop-A-Long Cassidy”! I have relatives flying into California today, and they would like some peace and quiet. LOL!

  • Diana L. C. Hazelnut Nut Thin Cracker

    Actually, the problem as I see it based on this interview is that when the Republicans take the house and gain seats in the Senate, will they be like the Dems were in 2006–sit on their hineys and do nothing.  (Gosh it will be good the see Fancy Nancy not in charge, won’t it?)  Will they be able to show some intelligence in the way they do things?  Will they not go back to their old white guys club attitudes?  I do see some good signs from the Republicans lately.  I hope Cantor continues his You Cut program and that they do some cutting of unnecessary projects while the country is in so much financial trouble.  I do hope we get some Republicans who will say no to pork and do some serious attempts at balancing a budget.  I do hope some will come in with good ideas for jobs creation.

    The other problem I see is the one My Site (click to edit) brings up and that is the massive voter fraud that is possible–especially since I am so depressed from reading the two posts so far by jbjd on the primary fiasco.  Perhaps its not as easy or as possible to commit the fraud when the young thugs and their handlers aren’t as motivated (without a new popular Idol brand to push), but it is a major worry for me now every time I vote–Does my vote really count?

  • HARP

    Love it !!!

  • kenoshamarge

    I have a bumper sticker to cover that.

  • HARP

    Hopefully…….Now look at the fossil remains of a voter who would not take the cure.

  • oowawa

    So, once they have the House, any smug non-performing GOP incumbents will also be at risk of being kicked out.  We ain’t “gonarrhea lectum.”  Right?

  • HARP

    Protect Yourself From Gonorrhea Lectim!! (Pronounce it real slow, and you’ll get it.)

    Information about Gonorrhea Lectim
    The Center for Disease Control has issued a warning about a new virulent strain of this old disease. The disease is called Gonorrhea Lectim, and it is a terrible obamanation.
    The disease is contracted through dangerous and high risk behavior involving putting your cranium up your rectum. Many victims contracted it in 2008…but now most people, after having been infected for the past 1-2 years, are starting to realize how destructive this sickness is.
    It’s sad because Gonorrhea Lectim is easily cured with a new drug just coming on the market called Votemout. You take the first dose in 2010 and the second dose in 2012 and simply don’t engage in such behavior again; otherwise, it could become permanent and eventually wipe out all life as we know it.
    Several states are already on top of this, like Virginia and New Jersey, and apparently now Massachusetts, with many more seeing the writing on the wall.
    Please pass this important message on to all those bright folk you really care about.


  • HARP

    I told you the bunnies are taking over.  😉

  • oowawa

    “What we do to the GOP after it has the House is not for the family hour programming.”

    I’ll confess to being a dumb bunny, but I have no idea what is being implied here.  Does anyone have an idea?

  • My Site (click to edit)

    timely article.  So why do the headlines keep repeating the Dems have the advantage in the fall elections?  I read a very disturbing blog on Numbers USA where people were saying that in their states it’s possible to register to vote online, get a voting card and you never have to show proof that you are a citizen.  If that’s true, the Dems could get all their illegal Mexican buddies on the voting rolls and sweep Congress.  I’m upset about it.

    As for the mortgage stuff, yes we are seeing that in our neighborhood.  The assessed value of our house has dropped hugely because of foreclosure and short sales around us.  Appraisers aren’t supposed to compare your house to foreclosures and short sales if your mortgage has never been in trouble, but apparently they do anyway.  The house across the street has foreclosed about 4 times in the past two years but the same family is still living in it.  Now they say they are in bankruptcy, but they are still living in the house.

  • oowawa

    “passionate partisan bunnies?” “POTUS is a Muslim bunny”?

    Now where did these phrases come from?  I’ve noticed some instances of blatant bunnyism on this site lately, and it had best stop or I’m going to have to unleash my bunny-fu . . .