He could be talking about the behavior science of passionate, partisan bunnies and it would sound the same witty and modest wise observation — the sort of talk when men hold their hands out, palms upturned, and shrug while looking in the near distance. (Jerry Seib, WSJ, is a first-rate political pundit as well as a careful, quiet, discreet Democrat — most trenchant and reliable.)
The numbers show a wave election that will sweep the GOP into the House and leave it a few seats short in the Senate — with a much better opportunity for the Senate in 2012 even if the GOP puts up a sentimental zombie for a top of the ticket.
The trends in place for the House show a gain of 35-45 at the very minimum — not because POTUS is a Muslim bunny, nor because Nancy Pelosi is a flippant Frenchwoman, but rather because the jobs numbers are ghastly, and the housing numbers are fake. The Obama administration went for the stimulus to prod the economy just enough by election day in order to make the claim that we are on the right path.
The markets do not believe Washington and have started talking randomly about the next Black Swan (known only after the fact) and those Hindenburg open-tickets to Lakehurst. Shrug. The housing program is the monster in the basement.
The foreclosure gambit by the Treasury means that we have fake housing numbers because folk have been allowed to game the system and stay in their houses after stopping their mortgage payments. This keeps the house off the market, keeps their houses without overhead, and completely wrecks the comp prices on their streets and in their towns.
Who can have confidence to buy when the Feds and the banks are warehousing inventory that is 30-50% overpriced and won’t be marked down until after you buy at the phony price? See the video below from my favorite Jim the Realtor re how Fannie is scheming in North San Diego County to hide the real decline in house prices in order to prop up the banks (who would have to mark down their asset sheets) and to hope and hop and hope and hop that prices rebound so they can move their shadow inventory stuff. Shrug. They pretend to fool us and we pretend to be entertained. The midterm is nearly now locked in as a wave swamp tsunami that will make the GOP feel important. What we do to the GOP after it has the House is not for the family hour programming. There will be blood.