Ohio News Organization Poll — McCain By Six
By Charles Lemos on September 21, 2008 at 8:25 AM in Barack Obama, John McCain, Ohio
This is the fifth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) and the fourth to show the trendline in Senator McCain’s direction. Two weeks ago, the Quinnipiac poll showed that Senator Obama had a five point lead and last week, the Survey USA poll had McCain up by four. Today a new poll from the Ohio News Organization (a consortium of Ohio newspapers) shows McCain still holding a moderate lead over Obama in the Buckeye state. The poll has McCain leading 48% to 42%. Four percent expressed a preference for independent candidate Ralph Nader and 1% for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.
In the battle for Ohio’s 20 electoral votes, Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a 48-42 percent lead over Democratic opponent Barack Obama — but with lots of time left in a volatile race, according to the first Middletown Journal/Ohio Newspaper Poll.
The poll also surveyed Ohio voters on health care, energy, and their personal financial situations — with nearly half saying they are worse off today than four years ago.
The Ohio News Organization — a cooperative formed this year by the state’s eight largest daily newspapers — commissioned the poll. The Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati, which also runs the Ohio Poll, surveyed 869 likely Ohio voters Sept. 12-16, with an error margin of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
While McCain is in front, the poll showed his margin is less than secure. Four percent favored Independent Party candidate Ralph Nader, 1 percent opted for Libertarian Bob Barr, and 5 percent said they were undecided. In addition, 19 percent said they could change their mind by election day.
“Even though it seems like this presidential race has gone on for an eternity, in many ways, especially in Ohio, it’s just getting started,” said Eric Rademacher, interim co-director of the institute. “When you bring the margin of error into consideration it’s certainly a very close race in the state.”
He said voters are still learning about Obama, which will make the poll volatile through the month of September.
“There is a great deal of potential for change in this race,” Rademacher said. “Almost a quarter of Ohio voters are still looking carefully at the candidates and have yet to make a final vote decision.”
The poll revealed deep dissatisfaction about Ohioans’ personal economic situation: Asked if they are better off, worse off, or the same as four years ago, a slight majority said they were either the same (34 percent) or better off (19 percent), while 47 percent said they were worse off.
Energy policy, health care
The poll also illuminated the difficulties of reaching consensus on energy policy:
– 70 percent agreed that global warming is a proven fact, not an unproven theory. However, fewer than half — 46 percent — blamed man-made emissions.
– 55 percent said investing in alternative energy sources should be the top priority for U.S. energy policy, while 29 percent saw expanded exploration and drilling for oil and natural gas as the top priority.
– 59 percent favored building more nuclear power facilities.
McCain has advocated nuclear plant construction and additional off-shore drilling, while Obama has promised a massive investment in alternative and renewable energy sources.
In response to a question about health care, 65 percent of respondents said they support providing health care for all Americans, even if it means raising taxes.
Views on candidates
Respondents attributed to McCain more than Obama the qualities of “good judgment,” “qualified,” and “higher personal and ethical standards.”
Obama scored better than McCain with likely voters on “personally likeable” and “best understands the problems facing Ohio.”
The poll findings are in line with many other recent polls of the Ohio electorate in giving McCain a slight edge.
The University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll conducted one week earlier showed McCain with the same 48 percent support, but had Obama with 44 percent.
Nationally, Obama leads McCain 47-45 percent according to a Zogby International poll out Wednesday, a seven-point reversal from an August Zogby poll that had McCain in the lead. The pollster credits Obama’s national rise in the poll to increasing support from women.
Clarence Martin, 57, of Hillsboro, an employee of a shipping operation in central Ohio that is slated to be shut down soon, said he is backing McCain because he believes keeping taxes low is how to spur investment.
“I’m still on the fence but mostly for McCain,” said Martin. “It just seems like he’s a better choice than Obama at the moment.”
Martin’s employer, ABX Air, contracts with DHL Express, which announced in May it would close the Wilmington Air Park hub, eliminating 8,000 jobs, including Martin’s.
McCain supported DHL’s purchase of the hub and his campaign manager, Rick Davis, lobbied for DHL’s German-based parent firm to purchase the Wilmington business five years ago.
Jean Fleck, 68, of Toledo, who works in a box and container factory, said Obama “seems to give you a sense that he’s for the working people, and we need somebody like that.”
“These people that make all this money don’t realize what everyday life is like, and he gives me the impression he knows what it’s like. He’s just a regular person,” she said.
But Toledo entrepreneur Donnie Stevens, 27, said he supports McCain because, “I like smaller government. I don’t like national health care.”
The self-employed photographer and school maintenance worker predicted McCain will carry Ohio because Ohio voted in 2000 and 2004 for George W. Bush and he said McCain is “10 times” smarter than President Bush.
Andrew Kaminski, 54, of Stow, near Akron, said the abortion issue is a key one for him. “I can’t support Democrats because their platform is not pro-life in any way, shape or form,” Kaminski said.
McCain’s positions on social and moral issues strikes a chord with Deborah McGee, 60, of Southpoint, near Kentucky and West Virginia.
“He is not for same-sex marriage, he is not for abortion. And for me that’s two important things,” McGee said, adding that her husband is a Vietnam veteran — like McCain — and so, “maybe it’s a sentimental factor also.”
Obama has also said he does not support same-sex marriage, but supports civil unions. He supports abortion rights.
Several Obama supporters predicted that the Illinois senator’s race will be an impossible obstacle for many voters. Obama had a black father and a white mother.
“The color of Obama’s skin — he will not carry this area,” said William Nesselrode, 64, of Stockport in Morgan County. He said in his community people who support Obama put their signs in a field, rather than in their yard, apparently out of fear of being affiliated with him.
Obama supporter Elizabeth Snyder, 37, of Greenfield in Highland County, also was pessimistic about Obama’s chances of winning.
“There’s a lot of prejudiced people out there. I’m not one of them. If it’s not a reporter asking the question, they’ll say it’s because of his color,” Snyder said.
She said she tries to correct people when she hears them question Obama’s American nationality, but “you wind up in an argument over it.”
Takeaways
The value add from this poll is the comments of Ohio voters. They reflect that when a voter is ambivalent they tend to go for McCain. The other key takeaway is that this is fourth poll with a moderate but clear McCain trend. While the race remains close for Ohio’s 20 Electoral College vote, Ohio may not be the critical battleground state in 2008 election cycle as it was in 2004. This time around that honour is likely to go to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other close states right now are Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico.
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