Hurricane Hysteria UPDATED
By Larry Johnson on September 2, 2010 at 7:24 AM in Current Affairs
God, how I hate the news media. They would hype the shit out of a fart released at a Taco stand. They currently are in full blown wailing over the impending doom bearing down on the Eastern seaboard of the United States that goes by the name of EARL. You know, Earl the Hurricane.
While I am aging (gracefully I might add) I have not succumbed to Alzheimer’s disease and can actually remember bold predictions made by the weather forecasters. Here’s what they said about our current hurricane season before it started:
The 2010 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Ocean began on June 1, 2010, and will end on November 30, 2010. Atlantic hurricanes affect the eastern and Gulf coasts of the U.S. and the Caribbean nations. Those with interests in hurricane-prone areas must heed federal and state advice on preparedness, the season in general, and each specific storm in the season.
The experts are predicting a busier-than-usual hurricane season for 2010.7 The early forecasts are being modified as the season progresses but the climactic conditions indicate the 2010 hurricane season will stand in sharp contrast to the relatively mild 2009 season. Special concerns in 2010 are whether a hurricane will hit the already-devastated island of Haiti and how a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico would affect the giant oil slick created by the explosion on the BP offshore driling platform. 8 Another question is whether a hurricane will come ashore in the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coastal areas, some of which have not yet recovered from 2005′s Hurricane Katrina.
Busier than usual huh?
The media cluelessness was on full display last weekend as they commemorated the disaster that was Hurricane Katrina. Remember Katrina? The slammed into New Orleans way back in 2005 at the end of August. In 2005 we had 11 major storms before September.
So here we are in 2010 and September has begun. How’s your math? If you understand the naming convention for hurricanes then you realize that Hurricane Earl marks only the fifth storm. 50% less than what we experienced in 2005. But is the media reporting that? Hell no. Everything has to be a fucking crisis. We need to be pelted with blaring warnings of breaking news. If they are not scaring the shit out of you they are not doing their job.
I suppose I would not be so angry about this if they confined their mindless fear mongering to hurricanes and snow storms. But they don’t. It is their standard operating procedure. Dire warnings devoid of context.
Here’s a prediction–for as long as you live there will be hurricanes. Some will be bad. Some years we will have more than others. Some years fewer. It is called weather. Accept it and get on with life.
Oh, and one more thing. If you choose to live on the sea coast in an area that is below sea level, you are a moron if you are surprised when a hurricane hits and you get flooded. You may have an inalienable right to drown yourself and your family but don’t expect me to pay for it or to give a shit.
UPDATE: Here’s what happened in 2009:
On September 1, the season’s fifth named storm, Tropical Storm Erika, formed east of the Lesser Antilles. Upon forming, the storm had attained its peak intensity with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h). Persistent wind shear prevented the system from intensifying and resulted in the storm’s convection being completely displaced from the center of circulation by the time it passed over Guadeloupe on September 2. After entering the Caribbean Sea, Erika briefly regained strength before fully succumbing to strong shear. The system eventually dissipated on September 4 south of Puerto Rico.[24]
Several days after Erika dissipated,[24] a new tropical depression formed southeast of the Cape Verde Islands on September 7. This depression rapidly intensified within an environment of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. Receiving the name Fred on September 8, the storm quickly developed an eye feature and was upgraded to a hurricane roughly 24 hours after being named. Within a 12 hour span, the storm’s winds increased by 40 mph (65 km/h) to its peak of 120 mph (195 km/h). Upon reaching this intensity, Fred became the strongest storm on record south of 30°N and east of 35°W in the Atlantic basin. Not long after the intensification ceased, it began to weaken as dry air became entrained within the system. By September 11, the storm nearly stalled northeast of the Cape Verde Islands and weakened to a tropical storm. The following day, Fred degenerated into a remnant low before taking a westward track across the Atlantic. The remnants of Fred persisted for nearly a week, nearly regenerating into a tropical depression several times. The low eventually dissipated on September 19 south of Bermuda.[25]
In late September, a new, well-defined tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic Ocean. By September 25, the system had developed sufficient deep convection for the NHC to classify it as Tropical Depression Eight. Shortly thereafter, wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures caused the depression to weaken. The system degenerated into a remnant low on September 26 before degenerating into a trough of low pressure.[26]
Just to reiterate the key point–this year’s hurricane season is very similar to last year’s, which was considered relatively mild. Note that the 2010 hurricane named Earl formed about the same time that the 2009 hurricane, Erika, appeared. Unlike 2005, when we had 11 named hurricanes before the end of August, we have only had five this year (with six, Fiona, on the way).
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