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Cheney’s AIPAC Speech: The Hell With Logic

Try to create a logical outline of Cheney’s speech tonight to AIPAC. Just try. But, what does logic have to do with propaganda anyway:

The most common myth is that Iraq has nothing to do with the global war on terror. Opponents of our military action there have called Iraq a diversion from the real conflict, a distraction from the business of fighting and defeating bin Laden and the al Qaeda network. We hear this over and over again, not as an argument but as an assertion meant to close off argument.

Yet the critics conveniently disregard the words of bin Laden himself. The most serious issue today for the whole world, he has said, is this third world war that is raging in Iraq. He calls it a destiny between infidelity and Islam. He said the whole world is watching this war and that it will end in victory and glory or misery and humiliation. And in words directed at the American people, bin Laden declares, “The war is for you or for us to win. If we win it, it means your defeat and disgrace forever.”

This leader of al Qaeda has referred to Baghdad as the capital of the Caliphate. He has also said, and I quote, “Success in Baghdad will be success for the United States. Failure in Iraq is the failure of the United States. Their defeat in Iraq will mean defeat in all their wars.”

Obviously, the terrorists have no illusion about the importance of the struggle in Iraq. They have not called it a distraction or a diversion from their war against the United States. They know it is a central front in that war and it’s where they’ve chosen to make a stand. Our Marines are fighting al Qaeda terrorists today in Anbar province. U.S. and Iraqi forces recently killed al Qaeda terrorists in Baghdad who were responsible for numerous car bomb attacks. Iraq’s relevance to the war on terror simply could not be more plain.

Here at home, that makes one thing above all very clear. If you support the war on terror, then it only makes sense to support it where the terrorists are fighting us. (Applause.)

We’re fighting Al Qaeda in the “capital of the Caliphate” because they’re there. And they’re there because we’re there. And we’re there because they came there because we were there? Forget, for a moment, any earnest confusion. It’s his certainty, in defiance of historical chronology and logic, that we must admire.

The Vice President has solved the chicken-versus-egg conundrum that the rest of us were just too stupid to! (But, but … TEACHERRRRR! When we weren’t there, was Baghdad “the capital of the Caliphate”? And Iraq became a “central front” of the GWOT because ??? Never mind, the teacher would say. “The Vice President is certain, and that’s all that matters.”)

I sense an Olbermann “Special Commentary” coming soon …

P.S. Actually, I think that Cheney is a big bad bald chicken(hawk) who sat on a tiny egg that’s mutated into a huge monster egg that’s blown his ass away! (Where his head was.)

P.P.S. Take this, you anti-war, money-grubbin’ ninnies:

Anyone can say they support the troops and we should take them at their word. But the proof will come when it’s time to provide the money. We expect the House and Senate to meet the needs of our military and the generals leading the troops in battle on time and in full measure.

And, no, the Vice President did not mention veterans, medical treatment, or Walter Reed. Just as President Bush did not in his State of the Union address. Let the anti-war, anti-troops ninnies worry about that stuff.

  • Uppity Gal

    Susan! this absolutely made me laugh out loud:
    “P.S. Actually, I think that Cheney is a big bad bald chicken(hawk) who sat on a tiny egg that’s mutated into a huge monster egg that’s blown his ass away! (Where his head was.)”
    perhaps the implosion explains his poor handling of a shotgun? (NOT the beers, surely)

  • http://profile.typekey.com/JimGormley/ Pvt. Keepout

    Yaas, that Dick Cheney sure has a way with words doesn’t he? Hey, speaking of words here’s a few inspired by Larry Johnson’s “Next Steps In Plamegate” Tue Mar 6, 2007:

    Re: US v. I. Lewis Libby

    Dear Senators/Representative,

    Trial evidence shows Dick Cheney led the Wilson attack to conceal fraud justifying the Iraq war. Valerie Wilson was exposed to discredit her husband’s criticism of the Iraq-Niger uranium forgeries. It’s now settled that senior White House officials organized a smear campaign to discredit Wilson by exposing his wife’s identity.

    Congress must investigate the Iraq war’s false case and Cheney’s campaign to silence Wilson’s criticism.

    Cheney, Addington, Hannah, Libby, Matalin, Wurmser, Card, Bartlett, Fleischer, Gerson, Rove, Rice, Hadley and others must testify under oath on their use of the Iraq-Niger uranium forgeries and other lies to deceive Congress and the public about Iraq.

    Additionally, Michael Ledeen, Douglas Feith, Larry Franklin, William Luti, Abram Shulsky, Ahmad Chalabi, Nicolo Pollari and Rocco Martino must testify under oath about the fabrication and promotion of these forgeries.

    US v. Libby questions whether we’re a nation of laws or mere subjects of a gang of bullies. You must act decisively to expose the Cheney gang’s lies, cover-ups and crimes. Thank you.

    Sincerely yours,

    Cc: Hon. Richard B. Cheney, The White House, Washington DC 20500

    Any copying or plagiarism will be greatly appreciated; sort of our own little NQ Snowflake Campaign. I sincerely hope NQ commenters are making similar demands on our People’s Deputies. If enough subpoenas start landing on these perpshits desks, they might not have time for additional mischief making in Iran or elsewhere.

    P.S. Please ensure hardcopies have wide margins so Cheney has plenty of room for notes.

  • Cee

    Cheney needs to stop listening to the loud and wrong crackpots like Bernard Lewis and the PNAC fools.

  • http://kowai.wordpress.com Shawn

    The most common myth is that our playground has nothing to do with the global war on hair pulling. Opponents of our military action there have called our playground a diversion from the real conflict, a distraction from the business of fighting and defeating bin Laden and the bully network. We hear this over and over again, not as an argument but as an assertion meant to close off argument.

    Yet the critics conveniently disregard the words of bin Laden himself. The most serious issue today for the whole school, he has said, is this hair pulling that is raging in our playground. He calls it a destiny between infidelity and the principal. He said the whole school is watching this war and that it will end in victory and glory or misery and humiliation. And in words directed at the 4th graders, bin Laden declares, “The war is for you or for us to win. If we win it, it means your defeat and disgrace forever.”

    This leader of bullies has referred to the swingset as the capital of the bullies. He has also said, and I quote, “Success at the swingset will be success for the 4th graders. Failure in the playground is the failure of the 4th graders. Their defeat in our playground will mean defeat in all their wars.”

    Obviously, the bullies have no illusion about the importance of the struggle in our playground. They have not called it a distraction or a diversion from their war against the 4th graders. They know it is a central front in that war and it’s where they’ve chosen to make a stand. Our 3rd graders are fighting al Qaeda hair pullers today at the slide. 4th grade and playground forces recently killed bully hair pullers at the swingset who were responsible for numerous lunch box attacks. The playground’s relevance to the war on hair pulling simply could not be more plain.

    Here at home, that makes one thing above all very clear. If you support the war on hair pulling, then it only makes sense to support it where the hair pullers are fighting us. (Applause.)

  • Chris Vosburg

    Cheney takes the bait: “[bin Laden] has also said, and I quote, ‘Success in Baghdad will be success for the United States. Failure in Iraq is the failure of the United States. Their defeat in Iraq will mean defeat in all their wars.’”

    [sigh] One of the more dependable characteristics of Yosemite Sam was that no matter how many times Bugs Bunny walked him off a cliff with the old “I dast you to step across this line” gag, he’d always be bull-headed enough to say “Oh yeah? Well, I’m a-steppin’, ya long eared galoot!” one more time, and down he’d go.

    Congratulations, Dick: You make Osama bin Laden sound like the rational one.

  • http://profile.typekey.com/dan_allnews/ Dan

    If you define “global war on terror” as whatever-it-is-the-Bush-administration-feels-like-doing-and-needs-some-wack-label-to-legitimise-it, it’s perfectly logical.

  • H.T.

    Wait … if Bin Laden (who is a Saudi Sunni) is to blame for the troubles in Iraq, why is Bush blaming Iran (which is Shiate) on Iraq … I am getting a mixed message here!! who is right, Cheney or Bush???? Neither. The Saudi Sunnis weren’t there before Bush entered Iraq, and the Iranians have every interest in stability for Iraq, so the Shaites can take charge. But you kinda lean to believe Cheney, the reason … Bush always looks and sounds stupid when he talks, but Cheney gives that look from the edge of his eyes and that low tone, giving you a feeling that the sky is about to fall. Another thing, what is it of his business if they made a Caliphate over there?

  • Michael Hand

    Hey, I just want to say that this site rocks. Larry Johnson- You sir also rock. And, finally, the name for your blog seriously rocks. It’s about damn time we “reality based” Americans, who love our country dearly, stopped taking crap from the hordes of chicken-shit keyboard warriors of the proto-facsist rightwing. We give no quarter.
    Best Regards- M. Hand

  • attobuoy

    So there we have it: Dick Cheney takes his marching orders from Osama bin Laden.

    Which gives Osama bin Laden an amazing amount of power that he would not otherwise have.

    Dick Cheney, agent of a foreign power. Traitor.

  • KenBee

    Sometimes someone says something so well, I know I can’t improve on it…so I steal it.
    Here’s a great comment from Indyscott on Dkos today:
    from “Cheney baits Dems on ‘support the troops”http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/3/12/113252/595

    *Before they go to war you manufacture lies about weapons of mass destruction so you can send them to Iraq for your bullshit agenda.
    *During the war you refuse to provide them with the body and vehicle armor they need to maximize their safey.
    *After they come home from war you give them crappy treatment at Walter Reed and throw them on the scrap heap when it’s determined they can no longer pull a trigger.
    *During it all, you and your cronies steal billions from the treasury via no-bid contracts and outright fraud.
    *And you’re the ones who “support our troops.”
    Meanwhile, the people who want to end this war and bring these troops home alive “hate our troops.”
    Welcome to what passes as “logic” in the United States of America in 2007.
    by IndyScott on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 09:06:44 AM PDT
    Well said I thought.

  • http://welcome-to-pottersville.blogspot.com jurassicpork

    You wanna know what the best part of that speech was, Larry? Max Cleland’s Murtha-esque response. That made it all woethwhile.

    Max never should’ve gotten voted out of the Senate.

    Oh, wait. He wasn’t.

  • Ill Do Chay

    I’m with attobuoy. I suppose Cheney is so used to using suspect and discredited sources for his intel, he’s perfectly comfortable spouting bin laden’s proper gander. In the words of Bugs Bunny, “What a maroon”.

  • http://www.moesmusings.blogspot.com/ Moe Dubreuil

    Press Conference by the President
    The James S. Brady Briefing Room
    March 2002

    Q But don’t you believe that the threat that bin Laden posed won’t truly be eliminated until he is found either dead or alive?

    THE PRESIDENT: Well, as I say, we haven’t heard much from him. And I wouldn’t necessarily say he’s at the center of any command structure. And, again, I don’t know where he is. I — I’ll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run. I was concerned about him, when he had taken over a country. I was concerned about the fact that he was basically running Afghanistan and calling the shots for the Taliban.

    But once we set out the policy and started executing the plan, he became — we shoved him out more and more on the margins. He has no place to train his al Qaeda killers anymore.

    Link: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/03/20020313-8.html

  • Thinker

    You keep on inferring there is a network called Al Qaeda, Susan. What is the basis for this?

    Also I can find not a single piece of irrefutable evidence that Osama Bin Laden is alive, though I concur with Mr M, there is a high likelyhood that he is not a great deal to do with this situation other than his “celebrity” status.

    Once a Carlyle man always a Carlyle man, they say.

    The “terrorist” problem is very different bowl of cherries. At the moment it is heralded by incompetance and directed by low IQ vigilantes. Give it time and a bellyful of instability, hells gates will open. But the Dem’s will wind the clock for the Arabs at least.

    Three cheers to 2009!!!!

  • GreyWolf – USA

    So if we withdraw to Long Island and promise to be nice to islamofascists, they promise no more 9//’s?

    We’re there becaue it is easier to kill them there.

    The problem is that our wussified, over-lawyered society doesn’t want to kill bad guys.

    The foreign policy of the people on this board is simple:

    Bend over.

  • Ill Do Chay

    Grey Wolf trolling!

  • Extradite Rumsfeld

    GreyWolf;

    You say that “the problem is that our wussified, over-lawyered society doesn’t want to kill bad guys.”

    The point is; (in case you missed the whole 1776-thing) – sure we want to kill bad guys. But nobody should have the legal right to kill GOOD guys. Even if we think they’re “bad guys” – you gotta prove it first.

    Otherwise, the people we put in charge of killing “bad guys” will start killing anyone and everyone they please. And if anyone asks them, they’ll say; “Oh, we were just killing your bad guys for you. You want to be protected from bad guys, don’t you?”

    Believing otherwise betrays a stark and troubling ignorance as to what America has stood for for the past 231 years. Worse than ignorance – it’s a simple dumb political ploy; “trust my guy to do whatever, because we’re the good guys!”

    Yeah. That’s what they were saying about Caesar at first too. And Hitler. And Stalin. Idiots like you is what put these monsters in power.

  • shargash

    “The problem is that our wussified, over-lawyered society doesn’t want to kill bad guys.”

    You’re right. I don’t want Bush, Cheney & Co. dead. I want them sent to the Hague to stand trial for war crimes.

    Oh, wait, you mean you weren’t referring to Bush & Cheyney? You were perhaps referring to the 600,000 Iraqis we’ve already killed, which I presume is insufficient mass murder to sate your blood lust. If 600k isn’t enough dead bodies for you, how many would be enough? 10 million? 100 million? A few billion? I’m sure you could easily convince yourself they’re all “bad guys.”

  • http://noquarter.typepad.com SusanUnPC

    Graywolf, I have a job for you.

    As you may or may not recall, in the 1990s we successfully prosecuted and imprisoned for life numerous terrorists, including the blind Sheikh.

    Many, including tratior Robert Hanssen, are in the supermax prison in Colorado.

    Problem is — and this is your task — please find out why the supermax prison doesn’t have enough staff to check/censor all the mail coming in and going out of the prison. Please? Is this the product of more Bush administration cuts for practical, needed services that truly aid the WOT?

    I’d like to think the blind Sheikh, Robert Hanssen, et al. aren’t freely plotting by U.S. mail with their terrorist pals.

    You guys sure like to talk tough. But you also NEED TO TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS.

  • GR3

    The most common myth is that Iraq’s oil is irrelevant. Proponents of our military action have denounced the civil terror in Iraq as a diversion from profit-taking, a distraction from the business of realigning the whole Middle East into a western corporate money maker. We do not hear this argument expounded as such, but our leaders’ actions and words do have much the same effect.

  • Sheerahkahn

    One of the things that confuses me about Cheney and his incredible powers of self-persuasion is to whom does he think he’s addressing…himself?
    Is he in his own little world?
    Is it that ever-shrinking Republican core (what are they down to now, 23%?)
    for whom Cheney throw these lil tidbits of fearmongering to?

    Ah, well, I’m done thinking about him. I’m afraid all we can do now is suffer through his blubberings, and after his term is over hope to G-d that he relocates to Dubai.
    Good riddance to bad rubbish!

  • S
  • GreyWolf – USA

    Joe Lieberman spoke to the AIPAC. Here is a quote:
    “The esteemed historian of the Middle East, Bernard Lewis, was in Washington this past week. He said that, when he looks at the world today and the threats we face, it reminds him of the 1930s—and that he hears far more voices that sound like Chamberlain than like Churchill. And so I challenge each of you to find the voice of Churchill inside yourself, and let it be heard this week on Capitol Hill and throughout the nation in the days and years ahead.
    Stand up for your arguments. Stand up for your principles. Stand up for your values. Stand up for America. Stand up for Israel. Stand up for freedom. And have confidence that in the end, our cause will, with God’s help, prevail.”

  • attobuoy

    GreyWolf, open your mouth. I want you to eat this from Keith Olbermann’s commentary at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/:

    -
    Dissent and disagreement with government is the life’s blood of human freedom; and not merely because it is the first roadblock against the kind of tyranny the men Mr. Rumsfeld likes to think of as “his” troops still fight, this very evening, in Iraq.

    It is also essential. Because just every once in awhile it is right and the power to which it speaks, is wrong.

    In a small irony, however, Mr. Rumsfeld’s speechwriter was adroit in invoking the memory of the appeasement of the Nazis. For in their time, there was another government faced with true peril—with a growing evil—powerful and remorseless.

    That government, like Mr. Rumsfeld’s, had a monopoly on all the facts. It, too, had the “secret information.” It alone had the true picture of the threat. It too dismissed and insulted its critics in terms like Mr. Rumsfeld’s — questioning their intellect and their morality.

    That government was England’s, in the 1930’s.

    It knew Hitler posed no true threat to Europe, let alone England.

    It knew Germany was not re-arming, in violation of all treaties and accords.

    It knew that the hard evidence it received, which contradicted its own policies, its own conclusions — its own omniscience — needed to be dismissed.

    The English government of Neville Chamberlain already knew the truth.

    Most relevant of all — it “knew” that its staunchest critics needed to be marginalized and isolated. In fact, it portrayed the foremost of them as a blood-thirsty war-monger who was, if not truly senile, at best morally or intellectually confused.

    That critic’s name was Winston Churchill.

    Sadly, we have no Winston Churchills evident among us this evening. We have only Donald Rumsfelds, demonizing disagreement, the way Neville Chamberlain demonized Winston Churchill.

    History — and 163 million pounds of Luftwaffe bombs over England — have taught us that all Mr. Chamberlain had was his certainty — and his own confusion. A confusion that suggested that the office can not only make the man, but that the office can also make the facts.

    Thus, did Mr. Rumsfeld make an apt historical analogy.

    Excepting the fact, that he has the battery plugged in backwards.

    His government, absolute — and exclusive — in its knowledge, is not the modern version of the one which stood up to the Nazis.

    It is the modern version of the government of Neville Chamberlain.

  • GreyWolf – USA

    Boy, talk about a twisting of facts to reach a pre-defined – and wrong – conclusion.

    Olberman is truly a stupid asshole….AND he can’t get it up, according to a former groupie – who was not challenged in that assertion.

  • attobuoy

    GreyWolf, your mother never taught you about namecalling, did she?

    Hey, here’s a web site that you, even you, might benefit from: http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/

  • http://tedneros.blogspot.com/ leslie

    Good one Susan, especially the PS’s.

    AIPAC booed Pelosi’s speech. She must’ve spoken after Cheney accused Democrats of treason and wanting to kill US troops.

    Meanwhile, AIPAC has made common cause with Christian zionists, such as Pastor John Hagee, the founder of Christians United for Israel, who when not cultivating ties with AIPAC and Israel gives sermons like this, see YouTube video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SDjzW43XrY&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Ftedneros%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F

    Hurrah for Armageddon! To war, to war, it’s off to war we go….annihilate anyone who may pose a threat at some point in the future, even if they aren’t a threat. And if Baghdad isn’t the center of al Qaeda’s “caliphate,” we made it the center, so it is now, and we’ve got to bomb it in order to save it from itself. That’s how the US spreads freedom and democracy!

  • Donovan Fraser

    IF your such a bad ass (like Cheney)….GO ENLIST Grey Wolf!!!!!and enlist your children as well. you must REALLY think we should be killing off all the brown people to have such a dumb fuck view of this debacle in Iraq. If you have already enlisted previously during peace time, RE- ENLIST… your already trained to be a target.

  • http://noquarter.typepad.com SusanUnPC

    Great points, Leslie. I read in The Hill that Pelosi was booed. She spoke after Boehner, who got lots and lots of applause, sigh.

    As Pat Lang always positions the issue, if there is a *true existential threat* to Israel, that is a most serious matter because we are Israel’s ally. (Which makes Jim Webb’s remarks on ABC’s This Week so right on — Webb says we can only withdraw from Iraq if we have ongoing, regional, vigorous diplomacy — and that also necessarily works to make Israel more secure.)

    Speaking of which, I thoroughly enjoyed Gov. Brian Schweitxer on Charlie Rose last week. You can listen/watch at http://www.charlierose.com
    – just scroll down the page — you’ll see Schweitzer’s wide, friendly face, and can click on the video.

    In talking with Charlie, Schweitzer covered Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Hormutz, and on and on. And (!) the future of the House of Saud. He also discussed our energy situation — and how to get independent of the Mideast –including that biofuels can only, at most, replace 1/6 of our current energy needs, and we need to come up with other ways.

    Schweitzer spent seven years in Saudi Arabia, and speaks fluent Arabic. He is a realist about the Mideast and about our dependence on the region. He is also a realist about how long our military will be in the Mideast (as long as we need oil), and about our ties to Israel.

  • GreyWolf – USA

    To all:

    Get out of your mother’s basement;get your own place.

    Get a REAL job.

    Get laid.

    Have a nice day,
    Your friend,

    Graywolf

    Any 2 of these would do wonders for your pathetic little lives. Three would be the jackpot.

  • http://profile.typekey.com/mpumpky/ PrchrLady

    I guess grey (neither white/black, somewhere inbetween?) is put before —wolf, to warn us. Trolls usually aren’t so kind, which was why I held out some hope for him, unlike some of our previous cretins, who have frequented the pages of this blog in time past. I see after the previous post by this ignorant species that my hope must have been misplaced with this one…

    Susan, Larry, Leslie, PH, and all, thank you so much for helping to get the word out about how unfairly our soldiers and sailors have been treated throughout this debacle. I was glad to hear Clinton renew her call today on the ‘vast right wing conspiracy’. She was right then, and I think many now see, she is correct today. The FACTS, when put across a timeline, show the plan step by step. I hope people open their eyes, and more importantly, their hearts, and give way for the Truth. This is a wonderful and great Nation, that has been taken over and soiled by corporate greed.

    A very wise man once said… You cannot serve God and money. It was true then, as it is true today. We will all be called one day to decide. Just as our forefathers had to do when they revolted against the authority of the King of England… Soon, those among us who have not yet confronted the beast,will be forced to do so. I pray for us all.

  • Chris Vosburg

    Graywolf over and over: “The problem is that our wussified, over-lawyered society doesn’t want to kill bad guys.”

    O little boy, when you stand in front of your mirror and puff out your little chest and say stuff like this, what voice do you prefer, John Wayne or Jack Webb?

    Just for fun, try Elmer Fudd next time, or for a sinister don’t-fuck-with-me-man-or-I’ll-blow edge, mix with a little Christopher Walken.

    And keep checking in, clown shoes. Man, that’s comedy!

  • http://nobloodforhubris.blogspot.com No Blood for Hubris

    Big Dick Cheney deserves a permanent vacation in Gitmo, complete with fabulous food and jaunty Caribbean-style waterboarding. Bright orange SO suits him, it’ll bring out the deep brightness of his ongoing moral hemorrhage.

  • GreyWolf – USA

    Chris:

    Still writing from your mother’s basement?

  • Jethro

    Beyond Quagmire
    A panel of experts convened by Rolling Stone agree that the war in Iraq is lost. The only question now is: How bad will the coming explosion be?

    [snip]

    CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ AND A STRONGER AL QAEDA

    Zbigniew Brzezinski: If we are willing to engage with all of Iraq’s neighbors — including Iran — in a regional effort to contain the violence, the best we can hope for is an Iraq that is politically passive but hostile toward America.

    Gen. Tony McPeak: It’s not a question of whether we’re going to leave Iraq — it’s a question of when. And everybody in Iraq knows that. So they say, “Fine. We’ll stock arms and wait for you guys to leave. And then we’ll do what we want.”

    But the administration has repeatedly highlighted the potential for chaos in Iraq after our departure as a reason we must stay and fight.

    Richard Clarke: All the things they say will happen are already happening. Iraq is already a base for terrorists; there is already a civil war. We’ve got 150,000 troops there now and we can’t stop it.

    Nir Rosen: There is no best-case scenario for Iraq. It’s complete anarchy now. No family is untouched by kidnappings, murders, ethnic cleansing — everybody lives in a constant state of terror. Leaving aside Kurdistan, which is very different, there’s nobody in Iraq who is safe. You can get killed for being a Sunni, for being a Shia, for being educated, for being part of the former regime, for being part of the current regime. The Americans are still killing Iraqi civilians left and right. There’s no government in Iraq; it doesn’t exist outside of the Green Zone. That’s not only the government’s fault, that’s our fault: We deliberately created a weak government so that we would have final authority over everything in Iraq.

    Michael Scheuer: Even in the best-case scenario, the disaster we’re seeing now is nothing compared to the disaster that we’ll see after we leave. The real issue here is American interest: The longer we stay, the more people we get killed. I don’t think the longer we stay, the better we make Iraq. Probably the reverse.

    What happens to the civil war between Iraq’s Sunni and Shia Arabs when we leave?

    Juan Cole: The civil war will go on for five or ten years — that’s inevitable. But the best-case scenario is, at the end of it they find a way to come back together as a nation-state, like Lebanon did in 1989.

    Rosen: People are talking about a reconciliation process, but Iraqi Shias don’t want to compromise with the Sunnis. They don’t have to. There’s going to be a genocide of Sunnis in Baghdad. The Shia have the numbers to do it; they can absorb all the Sunni car bombs it takes. The Americans aren’t capable of stopping it; they can’t tell a Sunni from a Shia. The best you can hope for is that it doesn’t spill into the neighboring countries.

    McPeak: You have to hope that Iraq devolves into a federal state with three strong regional governments. But that has its downsides: The Turks would go berserk. They would see Kurdistan as a base for the Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey, which has bedeviled them like the IRA in Ireland or the Basques in Spain. And if Iraq devolves into three separate “stans,” then it’s going to be pretty tough for Sunnistan not to provide a retirement home for Al Qaeda agents. It’s got warts all over it — but among the “don’t call my baby ugly” possibilities in this world, that looks the prettiest.

    So even in the best of scenarios, Al Qaeda has a lasting base in Iraq?

    Paul Pillar: The president made it sound like Osama bin Laden is poised to march into Baghdad and take up residence in one of Saddam’s old palaces and rule this terrorist state. Nothing of the sort is possible — even as a worst-case scenario. It is true that five years from now, the same people honing their skills in Anbar province may form the cell that will try to pull off another 9/11. But that’s going to happen regardless of what we do. We have the best chance of minimizing those sorts of costs by getting out. At least that takes away the anti-American cause célèbre effect of our presence there.

    Scheuer: No matter what happens now, the Islamists will have beaten both of the superpowers — first the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and now the United States in the heart of Islam. The impact of that in Islamic civilization is going to be enormous. We have made bin Laden a prophet: His organizing concept for Al Qaeda was “The Russians are a lot tougher than the Americans. If we can beat the Russians, then we can eventually beat the Americans.” Even more important, Al Qaeda will have contiguous territory on the Arab peninsula to attack from.

    Where does that leave Israel?

    Scheuer: The neoconservatives and their war in Iraq have made Israeli security worse than at any time since 1967. You’ll see more and more people trying to launch attacks in Israel who are not Palestinian or Lebanese. None of it bodes well for a Middle East peace settlement.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/13710030/leaving_iraq_the_grim_truth/print

  • http://profile.typekey.com/attobuoy/ attobuoy

    Hey Jethro, for another take that agrees with the Rolling Stone story, check out the War Nerd’s latest column at http://www.exile.ru/2007-March-06/war_nerd.html

    (And GreyWolf will enjoy it too.)

  • Mr.Murder

    The defense contractors in the audience booed Pelosi?

    They must have really vetted it, because last year Jews in the audience used laser targets on the screen when Shrubya’s video presentation was shown.

    Must have been more details of the IG Farben/ ‘trading with the enemies act’ leaks getting out ahead of the last convention… made audience members hyper partisan at the time.

    Cheney swung the pendulum back as best he could.

    Called my Congresspersons demanding his censure as he spoke. He conflated Al Qaeida/Osama with Iraq once again. Unless he knows something the NIE doesn’t and hid that from Congress he should clairfy the supposed facts he states.

  • Chris Vosburg

    Graywolf writes: “Chris: Still writing from your mother’s basement?”

    The “mother’s basement” line– which you’ve clumsily copied from others’ comments directed to you and others like you– only works if chiding armchair warriors who advocate a child’s comic-book view of war (kill all the bad guys) but lack the emotional maturity to appreciate the reality of the horror it entails (the megadeaths of innocents that actually result from such a simplistic view).

    Sorry, but you’re just going to have to come up with your own lines, Sonny.

  • http://profile.typekey.com/RailroadStone/ Railroad Stone

    Please stop using the phrase “chicken or the egg” as some sort of mystery.

    If you believe in evolution, it was the egg. If you deny evolution, it was the chicken. Either way, it’s just a stupid question, not a paradox.

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