It’s Not Over
By Capt Howdy on October 10, 2008 at 1:10 PM in Arrogance, Barack Obama, John McCain
I don’t need to tell anyone who reads Charles Lemos’s blog By The Fault (where I usually post) that many people are saying the election is over. The Obamans have gone past measuring drapes to talk of plans to rip out the bowling alley and install a hoops court. If you Google “why Obama will win” you get 49,800 hits compared to 16,200 hits for McCain (I was actually surprised it was that high). How about this: Why don’t we all just take a deep cleansing breath and let it out slowly through the mouth. There, don’t you feel better? It’s not over. Let me repeat that.
IT’S NOT OVER.
Everyone loves to make predictions. Particularly when lots of other people are making the same prediction. Big Tent Democrat, for example, over at Talk Left, has started predicting an Obama win about three to five times a day. I thought it might be fun to look at some predicted wins from past elections. Here a classic from the famous Chuck Todd:
A Kerry Landslide?
Why the next election won’t be close
But there’s another possibility, one only now being floated by a few political operatives: 2004 could be a decisive victory for Kerry. The reason to think so is historical. Elections that feature a sitting president tend to be referendums on the incumbent–and in recent elections, the incumbent has either won or lost by large electoral margins. If you look at key indicators beyond the neck-and-neck support for the two candidates in the polls–such as high turnout in the early Democratic primaries and the likelihood of a high turnout in November–it seems improbable that Bush will win big. More likely, it’s going to be Kerry in a rout.
As BTD’s “mini me” might say, “heh”. Here is another oldie but goodie come from E. J. Dionne:
Dukakis Remains on Course, Dismissing Polls and Advice
Advisers to both Mr. Bush and Mr. Dukakis say that if the election comes to turn around whether the Massachusetts Governor is too ”liberal” the Vice President will win. Specifically, if the campaign becomes a referendum on taxes, with Mr. Dukakis as a stand-in for taxes, both taxes and the Democrats will lose.
But Mr. Dukakis and his aides think there is another kind of campaign that he can win, and Mr. Bush’s aides are worried they might be right. As seen by the Dukakis campaign, their candidate’s main asset in the competition with Vice President Bush is certainly not ideological.
Instead, the qualities Mr. Dukakis’s aides emphasize these days are ”character,” ”leadership,” ”coolness” and ”predictability.” The George Bush they want to run against is not the moderate-to-conservative heir to Ronald Reagan, they say . . .
Wow. The more things change, the more they stay the same. I guess we need to ask a pollster. Let’s ask Zogby:
I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls. Sometimes I haven’t had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election.
Want a real laugh? Try Googling “Hillary will win” and read some of the 2,210,000 posts. In the interest of full disclosure, I will admit that my own predictions for this election season have been, shall we say, less than accurate.
I never believed the Democratic party would nominate someone with Obama’s thin resume and heavy baggage, and I also never thought the Republicans would be able to swallow their hatred of McCain and nominate the only candidate they had who could win, but there you are.
One wonders why, if the Obamans are so sure, they seem so worried. Here is a little truth. No one knows what will happen on November 4th. There are simply too many variables. Will Obama’s advantage in excitement and registration make him the next president, or will the doubts that voters have about his judgement and qualifications make McCain the next president. I will not make a prediction. I will offer an opinion.
Obama will lose, for at least a couple of reasons. First, the general voting population is far less burdened by liberal guilt than the average Democratic primary voter.
Secondly, and probably more importantly, there will be no caucuses on Nov. 4th. As much as the Obama brigades might like to, they will not be able to follow people into the booths on Election Day.
I have written at Charles’s blog before that I think there is a significant hidden anti-Obama vote. How big it is, no one can tell. But almost everyone agrees it is out there. Obama got yet another gift from the election Gods in the financial crisis, but the polls are tightening up again.
It’s not over.
Speaking only for me.
From Charles Lemos’s blog, By The Fault.
, the basis for the Best Motion Picture Nominee (Golden Globes) starring Brad Pitt.
, the novel by John Le Carre, a new motion picture starring Gary Oldman and Colin Firth.
by 
* (Included in the 
* 
.by David Fredosso who wrote 2008's 
- You'll have access to 18 million movies, TV shows, songs, magazines, and books, as well as ultra-fast Web browsing with Amazon Silk -- faster than iPad. Full e-mail and document access and a keyboard. Fire can transmit what is on your screen onto a connected TV or monitor without an accessory. It runs Flash (iPad doesn't). 
