* Bumped Up *
Editor’s Note: We welcome SeattleGonz’s first post at NoQuarterUSA.net. Tomorrow, look for her next post.
Palin will win. No, I mean Hillary will be the next president. Uh, no, Obama has it locked up. Well, I should say, Obama will win unless he’s running against Romney. Romney is the only gop’er who can beat Obama.
I’ve been reading comments and posts for months now that declare, with certainty, who the candidates will be, and the victor of the 2012 presidential election. Sometimes I wish I had such conviction and clarity, other times I know it’s my meditation practice that keeps me from such certainty. It reminds me of the changeability and impermanence of all things, including opinions.
What I do know, based on experience, is that Obama and the Obama press and pollsters are exceptional at creating a narrative and making it appear to come from us, the people at large. As a writer, it’s the Obama narrative that worries me the most. Stories can be powerful manipulators of emotion and ideology.
If you can bear to watch it, here is a video clip of MSNBC’s Domenic Montanaro declaring with emphasis that Palin can win the republican nomination. But, of course the general election, he kindly reminds us, is different from the primary. And, it’s in the general that Palin has a problem with independents and the general public. Here’s where I go, WTF? Sarah’s popularity is with the independents and general public; it’s certainly not with the traditional republican party.
I grind my teeth listening to so-called journalists using descriptors like “hypothetical” and “whopping” as in, “Obama has 48% of the hypothetical support to Palin’s whopping 40%.” Well, at least the bias is out in the open, sort of. Also, lines like, “When putting Obama against an actual candidate he wins against most and is tied with Mitch Romney.” Oh really? I’d like to know the names of those hypothetical candidates that he’s already losing to. The fictional polls and narrative building is well under way.
Researching some of the prognosticators, I came upon a few unusual sites. Here’s this bit from the Magazine of Improbable Research:
“Our 2003 algorithm for determining the winners of United States presidential elections correctly ascertained the winner of each of the 56 U.S. presidential elections between 1789 and 2000 and correctly predicted the winners of the 2004 and 2008 U.S. presidential elections. In this paper we apply the algorithm to 18 potential Republican candidates for the 2012 U.S. presidential election and find that seven have presidential electabilities greater than the Obama/Biden ticket will have in 2012: Michael D. Huckabee, Timothy J. Pawlenty, David H. Petraeus, Marshall C. Sanford, Haley R. Barbour, Sarah L. H. Palin, and Pyush Jindal. If the Republican Party nominates any of these candiates then they will win the 2012 U.S. Presidential election. An additional two potential Republican candidates (Ronald E. Paul and Paul D. Ryan Jr.) could have electabilities greater than the Obama/Biden ticket if they choose the appropriate vice predidential candidate. Barack H. Obama II and Joseph R. Biden Jr. will be re-elected in 2012 if the Republican party instead nominates a ticket with an electability of 35 or less.”
Wow, according to this particular polling algorithm there are seven candidates that can beat Obama. Interesting. I wonder what the polling results would be if Hillary Clinton was the democratic nominee. ( I know, I know, some of you want to scream, “She won’t run. She said so herself.” Maybe, I’ll write my next post on Hillary predictions since she inspires the strongest of statements about what she will and will not do, and whether or not she will or will not win.)
Since predictions at this point in the campaign (we haven’t really started, yet.) are nothing more than hopes, bets, predictions, I decided to check out the line on presidential candidates. It’s very interesting.
The text above the line reads this way:
“The obvious early favorite is Barack Obama at -140 odds. Mitt Romney is next with +1600 odds and Governor Sarah Palin along with Hillary Clinton are close behind with excellent odds at +2000. A couple of the long shorts at +10000 are Al Gore and the World Wide Web’s favorite candidate Congressman Ron Paul. Despite his age you might think Ron Paul is a good bet since he is a true Constitutionalist candidate and if there is ever a revolution in the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA he could be the strong favorite to win. All of this might be true, but there is a good chance no one would want to get paid in American Dollars! Never the less….take a look at the Presidential Betting Odds listed below, place your wagers and enjoy the exciting 2012 Presidential race!”
However, somewhere between the time that paragraph was written and posted the betting line changed. Both Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin are now tied for second at +1000 and Obama has dropped from -140 to -130. Can you imagine the election horserace if the fight ends up being between Clinton and Palin? Wow, wow.
And then, for a laugh, I need to add the poll result from Alan Colmes blog page stating that only 28% (it doesn’t specify 28% of who or what) think that Palin could win the presidency. Maybe that’s because the remaining 72% think she will win the presidency. We just don’t know what the real meaning is of poll results like these.
So, I know you’re all dying to jump in and declare the winners for the 2012 election…or at least who you think will win. My wish is that people will watch and read the words actually said by candidates, not press-edited versions, and that no one will believe the pollsters and public opinion prognosticators because they proved in the dem primaries of 2008 that they, alone with the press, are biased and are nothing more, nothing less than great writers of fiction.
Check out the pdf, Why do election polls vary? (PDF) at AAPOR. It has been made available to AAPOR staff to help them explain why polls are faulty. You might as well read it beforehand because I promise leading up to 2012 there will be many erroneous polls, although any respectable pollster will try to correct the lie in the last days before voting so they don’t come off as complicit in some political lie.