Markets Selloff 10% Overnight
By Larry Doyle on October 24, 2008 at 9:55 AM in Current Affairs
Just a quick post. Foreign markets sold off app. 10% overnight and we should expect our markets to open down 7-9% on the open.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122484171623466137.html
Commodities are down significantly.
10yr TSY has ralled in a “flight to quality” trade with the rate at app 3.55%.
I have been away for the last two days but from what I have seen and read, virtually every company that announced 3rd quarter earnings also put out serious warning signs about future growth and future sales. Chinese and Japanese companies realize that their exports to the United States are going to drop precipitously. A deep global recession is a virtual certainty.
Hedge fund liquidations are playing a huge factor in this selloff. These funds are faced with enormous redemptions. They are levered typically 5-10 times. Given that leverage, selling begets more selling.
Chrysler announces this morning that it is going to layoff 25% of it’s white collar workforce next month!!!
The level that I think the Dow will work towards is 7500. This level was last seen in 2003 and would reflect about a 12%-13% selloff from yesterday’s close. That 7500 level is close to a 50% retracement from the Oct 2007 high.
This equity selloff virtually guarantrees a Fed ease next week, probably 50basis points. In fact, it is not outside the realm of possibilities that the Fed comes into the market and eases today.
For those in the enviable position of having cash to invest, as the market approaches that 7500 level, I do think it is a good point of entry to put a little cash to work in “the strongest, greatest market share” companies. I would be reluctant to buy compnaies that are dependent on Wall St. or banks for financing as that may be tough to come by. (GE has already indicated that they will utilize the Fed’s facility to support the commercial paper market on Monday….this is very significant because it means that the private markets will not finance GE’s overnight cas needs!!!) Municipal bonds are looking very attractive but again be cautious as to the particular municipality.
I will post again at the end of the day as we are sure to have many highlights and lowlights in today’s market activity.
In the midst of all this though, please remember that as I have tried to highlight, that there are likely $1 trillion in embedded losses in the banking system. That bill must be paid. Wachovia’s announcement of a 24bln loss yesterday (real losses on mortgage and a writedown of goodwill) is a good example of what is to come.
Hug your kids and your wife!! I’m not trying to be a doomsdayer, but merely trying to give an honest perspective.
Aside from this market instability, the much bigger question is if, where, and how it plays into POLITICAL INSTABILITY. Iceland is bankrupt. Argentina has seized it’s pension funds. Russia is facing a credit downgrade!!! OPEC is being tested given the selloff in oil. Now more than ever we need real leadership. USA!! Country First!! McCain/Palin !!!!!!

















