Comments on: Patriot Room: McCain and Obama Nearly Even in Polls, Obama’s Fundraising Is Dropping “Like a Stone”

By: Eassaiada

Eassaiada — Fri, 29 May 2009 04:25:28 +0000

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By: The New Hope

The New Hope — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 01:20:21 +0000

This is truly an amazing site. I have to give it to you people.

By: proxy

proxy — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 23:15:08 +0000

Actually, there appears to be a simple methodical error in the polls, and we can actually quantify it and adjust for it. This error is the hang-up rate, i.e. people who refuse to participate in the polls. It is far higher this election than previously. This makes sense, after all, what do you do when you get junk phone calls? You tell them to pi$$ off and hang up. Now suppose, instead, it’s a pollster, and you decide to participate. But then they tell you that they have 100 questions, and will you take 45 minutes to participate — NOW, will you tell them to pi$$ off? Don’t laugh, some of these polls are as bad as that. Specifically, the CBS/NYT poll asks 100 questions, and they consistently show a 12%-13% lead for Obama. It’s pretty clear that they are measuring only those people who are willing to answer 100 questions.

If you look at other polls, the trend is plain — those polls which ask the fewest questions show the best results for McCain. So this is the systematic bias in today’s polls — they don’t count people who won’t particiate, and those people are overwhelmingly McCain voters.

So, why has Obama’s lead been increasing lately? Simply because people are losing their patience with the left-wing biased media, and are hanging up at an increased rate as the campaign progresses. And that’s all it is, the hang-up rate, and not a swing to Obama at all. Simple, eh?

Lastly, we can remove this bias by treating the hang-up rate as a certain percentage McCain vote, and seeing what hypothetical percentage yields consistency between the polls, if you add them in. My rough rule of thumb calculation shows 80% McCain, and does not include the “excess”, that is, those voters who just hang up right away, regardless of how many questions the pollsters want to ask.

This all makes sense, as with all the junk phone calls we get, people don’t have the patience for telephone-led processes like they used to any more. It’s like the old famous Willkie phone poll, which showed only how a systematic bias controlled the result, well, today’s sytematic bias is the vastly greater hang-up rate, which are McCain voters overwhelmingly. Look for a decisive McCain win on November 4.

By: a nancy in name only

a nancy in name only — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 18:16:50 +0000

Am pleased to have done my part.

By: bemused

bemused — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 15:23:11 +0000

One of the comments yesterday that seems to have disappeared was that the return of a certified letter could be used to claim that the voter was not really there and it was an invalid voter. Obviously that would be straightened out eventually, but I have used registered mail this way myself (not for voting, but to establish that I tried to reach someone and they didn’t respond). It still seems like a stupid waste of funds.

By: Kristen

Kristen — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:41:18 +0000

I think a major factor is how the media is treating Palin. It brings up a lot of hostility and bad feelings with how everyone treated Clinton in the primaries. I think people are just sick of it.

By: stodghie

stodghie — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:40:19 +0000

don’t the bots sound more desperate and angry. they used to try and use a little more subtle approach.

By: stodghie

stodghie — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:37:07 +0000

magoo! my, my, you sound like an angry, desperate little bot! hehehehe

By: stodghie

stodghie — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:25:18 +0000

good point! i no longer watch the blather brigade on tv anymore. i’ll watch law and order or house, the weather channel and local news. otherwise i go to the computer.

mindless know nothings with too much makeup and too few brains reading telepromoters irritate me.

By: Sue

Sue — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 11:25:30 +0000

That was a great article! Thanks for sharing the link!

By: Katy

Katy — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 08:46:28 +0000

I received this Email from TEAM SARAH.

By: bethtopaz

bethtopaz — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 06:14:06 +0000

You guys (and gals) give me so much hope this election season.

PUMAs are the stealth McCain vote.

The MSM will never know what hit ‘em.

By: jj1980

jj1980 — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 06:07:15 +0000

Only in His mind’s eye maybe??

By: bethtopaz

bethtopaz — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 06:02:22 +0000

Obama is brilliant. (Huh?)

By: bethtopaz

bethtopaz — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 06:01:16 +0000

Obama is a good person.