Fire Jumps Kuwait (+ Larry Johnson on radio tonight) & Open Thread
By John Batchelor on February 20, 2011 at 6:00 PM in Current Affairs
* Bumped Up to include OPEN THREAD *
Editor’s Note: Catch Larry Johnson on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show TONIGHT at around 10:05 to 10:35 p.m. ET. You’ll find programming details and “how to listen” instructions at the end of this post.
Editor’s Note 2: Do not miss a sentence that John wrote. It’s below the fold, and in boldface. It is a warning. I italicized a couple more must-reads.
The fire in the Maghreb spread quickly to Cairo, and thanks to Al Jazeera, it lit up the Gulf like a forest fire skipping from valley to valley. The struggle in Manama in Bahrain is fierce and unresolved. The fresh flare-up, just like an LA wildfire buring will-nilly, is at Kuwait, where the Arabist adventure started in 1990.
Spoke Seb Gorka, Michael Vlahos, Victor Hanson, Malcolm Hoenlein, Niall Ferguson, and several commentators from the US and from Israel — Tony Badran FDD; Andrew Apostolou, Freedom House; Hillel Frisch, Bar-Ilan University; Eyal Zisser, Tel Aviv University — who all look to the fire burning out of control for some time.
The pattern of revolutions is not positive, not ever. From Niall Ferguson’s observation, the turmoil of 1848 is the fair analogy of where we are in the cycle. The old regime tumbles quickly, and anarchy follows, many voices, many stopgaps; then the enterprise that is most violent and most resolute prevails, such as the Jacobins, the Bolsheviks, the Twelvers.
Is there the possibility of a break in the pattern? Yes.
However what we see now is a pattern than attracts the predators.
The one predator who gains most from the bottomlessness in the Gulf is Tehran. However mention that it is never wrong to look for Moscow Center, to look for PLA ops, to look for the rogues.
Anarchy is not manageable. It is survivable.
What of POTUS Obama and the serene pacifism and passivity of the NSC? Unknown, and that is a grown-up nightmare. What happens next is consistently predictable and at the same time random. The reversals will war the confidence of the region; then the defeats will wear the patience of the allies.
The Gulf returns toward where it came from in 1950, silence and intrigue and a traditional violence.
And how did 1848 turn?
Alexis De Tocqueville: “society was cut in two: those who had nothing united in common envy, and those who had anything united in common terror.”
Larry Johnson is a regular on the “experts panel” every Sunday night on John Batchelor’s syndicated radio show that airs nightly from 9:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. ET. You can listen live to every show via iTunes, and you can also listen to podcasts of previous shows.
Check today’s schedule (if available) for topics and co-guests during Larry’s appearance and for the full four-hour broadcast. If there’s no schedule, you can usually count on hearing Larry between 10:05 and 10:35 p.m. ET.
Here’s how to listen to the live show, using iTunes:
- Click Radio.
- Double-click News/Talk Radio.
- Scroll down and double-click WABC-AM.


















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