McCain May Catch a Case of Pennsylvania
By Shtuey Shtuey on November 3, 2008 at 9:40 PM in Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Democrats, Ed Rendell, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Joe The Plumber, John Murtha, McCain/Palin 2008, Pennsylvania
First, I want to address those supposed internal poll numbers that have McCain ahead in PA, MI, NJ and closing in on CA. I have not been able to verify those numbers. They could be true, they might not be. I said back during the primaries that a Pampers nomination would put PA, MI, and NJ in play. Since we know that the pollsters have not been releasing accurate numbers, as their models are weighted heavily to Pampers, with interviewees being mostly Democrats, I think it is safe to say that this race is tied, and will be decided by the undecided voters, which have been breaking for McCain, and will continue to do so. Why? Because if you haven’t made the commitment to Pampers by now you are nervous enough about his fraudulent fascist ass that you are going to hold your nose and vote for McCain; at least he is a known quantity. Internals cannot always be trusted either.
In NC internal numbers had Clinton within 5 points and shaving a point each day off Pampers lead; she lost by 15, but we know now that was due to double counted ballots, and other methods of fraud. Numbers can be given to motivate workers, volunteers, and voters. I think the best strategy is to not put faith in numbers and work your asses off in the next 24 hours to defeat Pampers. Keep making calls. Keep canvassing, get out the vote, and go vote yourselves. The Pampers fraud machine is in full force so we need every vote for McCain to count (we can deal with the “what should have been” with Hillary later). DO NOT ALLOW ANY POLL NUMBERS MAKE YOU FEEL THIS IS OVER.
And lay off the conscientious abstainers. They have made their decision based on their ethics. Respect it. If, in the privacy of the voting booth they have a change of heart, they will do that without being cajoled by us (my entire immediate family is voting for Pampers, guess how that feels?). Now, on to Pennsylvania.
I believe that John McCain is going to win the 21 electoral votes in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania on Tuesday. In 2004 Bush lost the state by 144,248 votes (see the above map of the 2004 result). The cities of Philadelphia, Allentown, Pittsburgh, Wilkes-Barre, Scranton, and Erie went to Kerry, while the entire rest of the state voted for the Shrub. Pampers will no doubt take Philadelphia. But McCain doesn’t need Philadelphia to win. He needs, and he’s going to get, Allegheny County.
In 2004 Kerry won Allegheny, and outlying counties, by slim margins:
Allegheny: 96,987
Beaver: 2,230
Washington: 552
Fayette: 4,075
That’s 103,844 votes. Leaving a margin of 40,044 votes in the 2004 totals.
There is one reason and one reason only that Kerry took these counties: Tereza Heinz-Kerry. Knowing this, Obama tried to trot her out in the run-up to the Pennsylvania primary. Her lack of enthusiasm for the candidate was pretty obvious. Obama has no such connection. In fact, the one thing he had going for him in the area, John Murtha, decided to pick the scab off the bitter/cling incident by calling his constituents racists, and then rednecks. Personally I think Murtha fell on a grenade, potentially ending his political career to prevent Obama from getting into the White House. Between that, Joe the Plumber, Bittergate, the Hillary/PUMA effect and Obama’s ever shrinking tax break income threshold (it used to be $250,000…now his ads say $200,000….his VP says $150,000….Bill Richardson says $120,000….we know it’s really around $42-50,000…middle class, get ready for the mugging) chances are McCain is going to win all four of those counties.
Another Kerry stronghold was Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties. Margins were not that wide there either.
Lackawanna County (Scranton is County Seat): 14,807
Luzerne County: 4,620
I believe that it is the PUMA effect that will have the greatest impact in drawing Democrats away from Obama. Forget Biden’s connection to Scranton. He hasn’t had any there in decades. No one is seeing his appearance there as a homecoming. It’s a hey I used to be from here vote for me kind of feeling. When Democrats for McCain and Harriet Christian are leading PUMAs on major canvassing safaris, reminding everyone what Obama and the DNC did to Hillary, the candidate they still love, what Obama said about them, etc. I see both counties in play big time. Thank you all for your hard work and dedication up there!
Joe the Plumber will also pull in votes in Allentown, and Erie. We hear time and time again that working class voters are “values voters,” meaning that they vote with the candidate whom they feel represents their beliefs, even if they are voting against their economic interests. In 2008 the McCain/Palin ticket not only speaks to them more, especially with a woman who comes directly from the working class, but will better serve their economic interests by not taxing them into the poor house, or taxing their employers into laying them off (and with those ever lowering tax thresholds that is exactly what is going to happen).
The simple fact of the matter is that if McCain’s internals didn’t have him in striking distance he and Palin wouldn’t be wasting their time. And if Camp Pampers didn’t think the same thing he and Biden wouldn’t be there either.
One final factor working for McCain: Pampers fatigue. Pennsylvania was the state that shocked the nation when polls came out saying they were sick and tired of hearing Pampers’ voice and seeing his face everywhere. They felt that way during the primaries. I can only guess how they feel now. I would imagine there are a lot of people in PA doing what I do…turning down the volume on the TV, changing the channel, or throwing random objects. No one overkills like Pampers whose motto must be, “Too much of me is never enough.” Pampers, I’ve got news for you; too little of you is too much of you. PA is also the state where Pampers told Ed Rendell, “We don’t need the people, we just need the checks.”
Don’t be surprised if it’s going to be Pennsylmania for McCain tomorrow. Sorry Pampers, you need the people, not just the checks.
[More of Shtuey Van Shtuey's superb writing can be found here]
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