Thoughts Post -Election
By Charles Lemos on November 7, 2008 at 11:45 AM in Barack Obama, John McCain
The Map
In the end, the Obama-Biden ticket won 28 states plus the District of Columbia with a total of 364 Electoral College votes (67% of the total). Obama won 52.3% of the popular vote, the highest total for a Democrat since LBJ’s 61.1% in 1964. Obama became the first Democrat to carry North Carolina since 1976 and the first Democrat to carry Colorado and Virginia since 1964. As a measure of comparison, Bill Clinton won 31 states plus DC for 379 ECVs but he only won 49.2% of the popular vote in 1996 (Reform Party candidate Ross Perot won 8.4%).
Obama carried New England, the Mid-Atlantic region, the West Coast and swept the industrial heartland of the mid-west (The Big Ten states) in addition to making inroads in the Mountain West and the South.
The Margin
The final margin looks to be just slightly more than six points which is surprising in some respects. My own expectations had been more on the order of an eight point win especially since Obama was racking up large landslide margins in some of the nation’s populous states. Obama would win five of the ten most populous states by landslide margin and lose but Texas by a landslide margin.
The Polls
Pre-election polls were largely accurate especially in the underlying trends and movement in the race. My thesis on the race was largely accurate and my own prediction of 349 ECVs for the Obama-Biden ticket deviated from the final results in just three states: Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina. In each of these the final tally was under a percentage point differential.
More troubling is the exit polling which for the third successive election failed to accurately call the election. The exit polling projected a margin of victory that far exceeded the actual six point margin.
Rahm Emmanuel
President-elect Obama confirmed the appointment of Congressman Rahm Emanuel as his White House Chief of Staff.
“I announce this appointment first because the chief of staff is central to the ability of a president and administration to accomplish an agenda,” Mr. Obama said in a statement. “And no one I know is better at getting things done than Rahm Emanuel.”
To begin with, I am relieved it’s not former Senator Tom Daschle. It is also a partisan choice and to be frank I was never one who viewed Obama’s post-partisanship as a good thing. Some fights are worth fighting and Congressman Emanuel knows to how fight and hard nosed. A consummate insider, Congressman Emanuel has intimate knowledge of the Washington power broker scene and the legislative ties. Though officially neutral in the primaries, Congressman Emanuel has close ties to the Clinton wing of the party and with the House leadership where he is currently the fourth-ranking Democrat.
So far, the appointment has received mixed reviews from the GOP.
The selection of Mr. Emanuel, known by some as “Rahmbo” because of his toughness, was met with criticism by some Republican lawmakers. The House minority leader, John A. Boehner of Ohio, said in a statement, “This is an ironic choice for a president-elect who has promised to change Washington, make politics more civil and govern from the center.”
But Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican who campaigned strenuously for his close friend Senator McCain called it “a wise choice.”
“Rahm knows Capitol Hill and has great political skills,” Senator Graham said in a statement.
He added: “He’s tough but fair. Honest, direct, and candid. These qualities will serve President-elect Obama well.”
My guess is that Congressman Boehner has been on the losing end of battles and that his comments reflect such. My read is that Senator Graham’s assessment is the more accurate.
Is The GOP Still A National Party?
The last remaining Republican Congressman in New England lost his bid for re-election. Senator Susan Collins did win her re-election bid in Maine. That leaves Collins, Senator Snowe and Senator Gregg as the sole Republicans in the Congress from New England. Here in California, the GOP’s fortunes are tied to Governor Schwarzenegger. Beyond that, it’s hard to see another California Republican on the horizon.
For the GOP, it’s back to drawing board and if I have any advice to offer the GOP it’s don’t take any advice from the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the CATO Institute or the Hudson Institute. They are the ones that got you in this mess.
From my blog, By The Fault.
by Ronald Scott
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