It’s funny and ironic that our group knew from the start that Barack Obama didn’t have the depth and gravitas for the presidency, and now all of a sudden, the mainstream media is catching on.  Now he’s at that tipping point where it seems totally unlikely he will win a second term.  I don’t think there are many knowledgeable political observers who expect him to win.  It all seems to be coming to a head very quickly.  Here today, gone tomorrow.

Assuming Obama has little chance of winning re-election, I think the main question is whether he will step aside, either voluntarily or by order of his handlers.  And if this happens, will it occur in time for another Democratic candidate to get organized and positioned for a serious run?  Is it already too late?  Probably.

As disinterested as he is in the affairs of state, I find it astonishing that Obama even WANTS to go for a second term.  It seems to me he is only in it for the prestige and occasional adulation, but he’s going to find himself with neither very soon, the way it’s going.

I find it interesting, in fact I find it confusing, that we always want to compare what’s happening in current events to historical precedents.  For example, we keep hearing speculation about Obama “doing an LBJ” because President Johnson was the last president to change his mind about re-election and take himself out of the race.  Precedent aside, Johnson was getting old and tired, and retirement was appropriate for his age and length of service in politics.  Obama is still relatively young and there’s really nowhere for him to go except on speaking tours.

Here’s another comparison to history that’s not working out:  the primaries and convention.  It’s been quite awhile since the candidate was decided at the convention by multiple ballots.  States are competing for having their primary elections as early in the year as possible.  We don’t seem to have the patience for indecision.  We want our candidates chosen ASAP, then we complain all year about how long the process has become.

With the candidates selected by March or earlier, that puts us smack dab up against it already.  We should know in about four or five months who the nominee will be for the Republicans, and if Obama is to step aside, it will have to happen pretty soon for a replacement to have a chance.

Of course, it’s highly unlikely he will step aside, even with his approval ratings at historic lows, about 36% approval at this writing.  Narcissism always trumps common sense.  And Obama doesn’t have enough sense, as my grandpappy always used to say sometimes, to pound sand in a rat hole.