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Israel Ready to Launch?

I think war between Iran and Israel is inevitable and is likely to occur before our election in November. The following memo was published today at the blog, TIKUN, and merits your consideration. Mysteriously obtained by Richard Silverstein, who runs the blog, the memo certainly has the ring of authenticity:

The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan—will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.

A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMD], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.

The missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility.

A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.

After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data, will the information be transferred directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short-list of targets which require further assault.

Among the targets approved for attack—Shihab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants and more.

Like all war plans, there is a dramatic divergence between what planners “hope” will happen and what actually unfolds on the ground. The drumbeat for war is as intense as anything we have heard over the past two years. Israel’s Ambassador was on Bret Baier’s show tonight and, in typical diplomatic style, was ringing the alarm bell:

This, to the horror of Obama’s re-election team, is moving forward. Obama does not want to face the electorate with a messy war underway. But he will have little choice. What will be interesting is whether Bibi chooses to give Mitt Romney a heads up. Both campaigns will be tested when it comes time to respond to Israel’s action.

The most worrisome scenario entails Israel failing to accomplish its key objectives and the loss of several pilots, who wind up in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard. That could unleash enormous pressure on Obama to intervene. Failure to do so will reinforce an image of weakness (just the opposite of what he is trying to cultivate with his Osama Bin Laden victory lap).

Once Israel launches strikes, Iran will take the gloves off and move to hurt us and our allies in the Gulf. At that point, the potential for the situation to spin out of control increases significantly.

This is not the kind of blow a struggling global economy needs. I’m hoping Israel is engaged in an aggressive psyops campaign rather than actually prepping for an imminent strike. But I think the actual strike is in the cards and will happen before November 6. Let’s hope I’m wrong on this.

  • lola828

    Funny that you Larry Johnson are quoting a strong progressive like Richard Silverstein.

    Obama’s views on Israeli probably line up pretty well with those of Richard Silverstein, although Silverstein thinks Obama might not really be too bothered by an attack on Iran (he writes this in another of his posts). Your views, Larry Johnson, seem to line up much more with Obama on Israel than with Romney, who seems perfectly willing to hand over our Middle East foreign policy to Netanyahu. Your views on Syria, also seem to line up much more closely with Obama, as Obama had largely kept America out of Syria and Republicans want to go as far as arming the Syrian Liberation Army. Why are you voting for Republicans?

    I thought according to the post you, Larry Johnson, wrote earlier in the year that the U.S. was going to attack Iran back in the Spring. That never happened and now it is Israel attacking and not the U.S. before the election. We will see if this new prediction by you turns out just as well.

    However, these days your foreign policy astuteness is nearly as bad as your economic analysis. That is what happens when you constantly look through your rose-colored political ideologue hate Obama glasses on every single thing.

  • Popsmoke

    @Hokma

    No jew hater here.. I just don’t like right wing foreign politicians playing with our political process. Though it really pissses me off when a supposed friendly government who we are bank rolling spys on us as well. .

  • Popsmoke

    No jew hater here.. I just don’t like right wing foreign politicians playing with our political process. Though it really pissses me off when a supposed friendly government who we are bank rolling spys on us as well.

  • Popsmoke

    In Israels dreams……. Like Iran is not ready to retaliate……

  • Hokma

    This was something I had previously expressed fear of and it is likely to happen.

    “Traditionally, when we have national security crises in an
    election, there’s a rally around the flag effect, where people say — regardless of my party affiliation — it’s time for us to stand with our president,” Rove said. “So if there was a military action between now and November, in all likelihood, people would stand — would rally— around the president, and . . . President Obama would benefit in the polls.”

    http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/iran-attack-israel-obama/2012/08/17/id/448930

    Rove is right and I believe that Obama advisors know that.

    I believe that Obama is carefully playing on both sides of
    this by making sure his public position is that he is opposed to Israeli action before the election while doing little or nothing to prevent such action. But make no mistake about it, Obama knows that Israeli military action against Iran if done within weeks of the election will likely give him a victory.

    I also believe that Netanyahu knows this as well as is allowing public leaks in order to force Obama to submit to firm assurances so that Israel does not have to bomb Iran before the election. The reason to bomb Iran before the election is a result of a complete and warranted distrust of Obama.

    • lola828

      Newsmax?

      • Hokma

        What’s your issue? Do you now believe that Newsmax interviewed Karl Rove? What Rove said is a statement of historical fact.

  • BronwynsHarbor

    Just posted on Twitter: The Washington Post ‏@washingtonpost
    In Israel, speculation rises of pending attack on Iran’s nuclear facilitiesLINK

    • Hokma

      I was listening to author/journalist Ed Klein get interviewed this morning and, other than confirming that Hillary was offered the VP slot 2 weeks ago and turned it down, he said that Hillary and Obama have had a contentious working relationship and does not approve of many of Obama’s policies (foreign and domestic).

      If Hillary had been President (or McCain) Israel would not be in this situation now.

      And it was great to hear that she still can’t stand Obama. That is one thing about women – they have very long memories.

  • mgm

    The one “issue” that would/will keep me from voting for Romney is his stance on Iran and Israel. I have no interest in supporting Israel’s bellicose rhetoric and we’re-the-only-ones-who-can have-nuclear-weapons attitude. With friends like the Israelis who put Netanyahu in office, the US would be better off dealing with its enemies. This whole Iran is the monster is a diversion to keep the Palestinian tragedy off the front pages and swing the US election toward a candidate who will make a more satisfactory Israeli puppet.
    Maybe someone can show me why Romney won’t get us into another hopeless, costly ME war.

    • Hokma

      “This whole Iran is the monster is a diversion to keep the Palestinian tragedy off the front pages and swing the US election toward a candidate who will make a more satisfactory Israeli puppet. ”

      You must be one of the Daily Koz Kidz

      • mgm

        No I’m not of kos. Is that your standard comment to anyone who disagrees with you on Israeli policy? Do you really believe the only Israeli non–apologists are liberals? If so, you need to get out more.
        You also ought to read today’s reader comments to the NY Times article on a possible Israeli strike on Iran. It’s clear that Americans are getting fed up with supporting a nation that is imperiling America at a terriible cost. If Israel insists on attacking Iran, they should go it alone. I care a lot more about America’s interests than I do Israel’s. Please tell me what Israel has done for the US in return for billions of taxpayer dollars other than breed hatred of us in the Arab ME.

        • Hokma

          For starters, yes, because Daily Koz is a breeding ground for Jew haters (not just Israel haters) and its little Fuhrer, Markos, was actually once on Meet The Press admitting as much and feeling that it was okay.

          Are there conservative Israel haters? Yes, but based on your comment it was a good guess and your follow up here further supports that you are a left wing loon.

          The minute you bring up The New York Times you expose yourself. I stopped reading the NY TImes years ago when it was evident that they ceased being a legitimate newspaper and were now the equivalent of Daily Koz in print and trying to live off past glories. They have been on the brink of insolvency many times because of how irrelevant they have become.

          If you think viewers of the NY Times represents Americans I would urge you to get out of your basement. Readers of the NY Times represents a tiny segment of people in this country who would better labeled socialist workers.

          What has Israel done of the United States? What has Japan done for the U.S. or Germany or South Korea or any country that receives military aid? As far as Israel, how about we start with drone technology,

        • lola828

          Hokma calls anyone who disagrees with Israel or those Israeli Neocons in Israel a Jew hater.

          • Hokma

            Just cutting out the coded B.S. Get lost Jew-hater

    • jrterrier

      oh, right. Israel’s bellicose rhetoric? israel has never initiated a war. they have only defended. and i guess you don’t listent to the garbage coming out of iran daily and not just in recent weeks about their desire to eradicate israel.

      • mgm

        Israel has never initiated a war? What are you smoking?
        I think you mean that Iran has never initiated a war. The idea that Iran would strike Israel is ludicrous. But If I lived in Iran I would be very uncomfortable with all those Israeli weapons pointed my way. Your knee-jerk defense of israel no matter what it says or does is irrational.

        • Hokma

          What war did Israel initiate?

          Iran has never initiated war? Directly you are right. But they count on morons like you to not understand how they disguise it using their surrogates.

          And since you read the NY Slime (“All The News They See Fit To Print”) what Israeli weapons are pointed at Iran?

          • lola828

            How many times did they invade Lebanon? What about the Gaza strip or the other occupied territories?

            1956 and 1967 were also pretty much initiated by Israel.

            Begin pretty much admitted it in 1982.

            http://www.wrmea.com/backissues/0794/9407073.htm

            How about 1948?

            • Hokma

              Israel never was provoked?

              Your link of Begin’s speech does not prove anything at all. He even admitted that the U.S. forced Israel to join them and the UK in the Suez Canal crisis. In regard to the other wars Begin said that Israel’s other alternative was to continue to accept casualties from the ongoing terror attacks.

              But in the mind of a typical socialist Jew-hater like you, what’s some more dead Jews.

              I am not int he mood for your ignorant Jew hating crap right now. Go back to Daily Koz where Jew hating is a regular practice.

    • jrterrier

      apparently you missed this also:
      Hezbollah Marks End Of Ramadan By Bragging Their Rockets Could Kill “Tens Of Thousands” Of Joooos…

      http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?ID=281645&R=R1&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  • Justine00

    Why leak all this information beforehand?
    .

    • Hokma

      I think Israel is trying to penetrate into Obama’s head and convince him to provide SOLID (in stone) assurances to Israel that will carry on after the election in case the slug gets re-elected.

      Despite the anti-Semitic stuff you read elsewhere (and below) no one in Israel wants war with anyone. Their economy is doing extremely well and they have had a very long period of relative peace which they have become accustomed to.

      Israel does not trust Obama at all which I believe is the only reason for them to attack now and not wait till a time after the election when Obama would have no reason to support Israel.

      • jrterrier

        solid assurances? what good would those be?

      • Popsmoke

        Who the hell is Israel to be blackmailing anyone? It is this simple. They attack? They are on there own…. Body bags and all….

        • Hokma

          Right now I am not in the mood for your Jew-hating crap. So go to hell.

  • jrterrier

    meanwhile, in afghanistan another two american soldiers killed by an afghan “policeman.” i know we shouldn’t let a single terrorist drive us out but i cannot stand to see another good American soldier die like this. I cannot imagine the pain this must bring to their families.

    Get them out NOW. if they want to kill each other, go ahead.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_AFGHANISTAN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-08-17-07-05-57

  • http://www.facebook.com/calm.calmcalm Calm CalmCalm

    If Israel attacks Iran, and which results with me and my family left freezing in the dark and/or spending hours looking around for supplies of oil/gas and paying huge prices ….. then I’m gonna be some angry.
    As each day of hardship passes, I will need lots of control in order to not just walk up to the Jewish area of my city and demand their supplies of oil/gas ….. and perhaps much more.
    The Jewish Folks (Pro-Israel Supporters) in North America need to be told that I will hold each and every one of them responsible for what Israel does.
    This Catholic altar boy does not intend to take this sitting down.
    Calm

    • FormerLiberal9

      Hater!

    • Andy_Lewis

      Any time, punk.

    • Hokma

      You should be upset about the religious thugs that run Iran. When the people in Iran sought to change the government with massive protests and were crying out for Obama’s support, the tough guy-in-chief sat on his hands in stone silence and allowed Iranians to be slaughtered.

      That is who you should direct your anger.

  • jrterrier

    The rhetoric seems to be ramping up. Now it’s not just Ahmadinejad. Yesterday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that he was confident that “the fake Zionist (regime) will disappear from the landscape of geography.”
    http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=281366

  • lola828

    Funny you are quoting a strong progressive like Richard Silverstein. Obama’s views on Israeli probably line up pretty well with those of Richard Silverstein, although Silverstein thinks Obama might not really be too bothered by an attack on Iran (he writes this in another of his posts). Your views, Larry Johnson, seem to line up much more with Obama on Israel than with Romney, who seems perfectly willing to hand over our Middle East foreign policy to Netanyahu. Your views on Syria, also seem to line up much more closely with Obama, as Obama had largely kept America out of Syria and Republicans want to go as far as arming the Syrian Liberation Army. Why are you voting for Republicans?
    I thought according to the post you, Larry Johnson, wrote earlier in the year that the U.S. was going to attack Iran back in the Spring. That never happened and now it is Israel attacking and not the U.S. before the election. We will see if this new prediction by you turns out just as well.
    However, these days your foreign policy astuteness is nearly as bad as your economic analysis. That is what happens when you constantly look through your rose-colored political ideologue hate Obama glass on every single thing.

  • http://www.theindependentview.com/ Matthew J. Weaver

    The more out-of-the-loop or impotent Obama appears, the worse for him. He’s already squandered credibility by standing idle while Syria self-destructs.

  • Retired_from_SPOnaj

    Larry, In backchannels, Obama has begged the Israelis, and indeed is still begging them, not to attack before November 7th. Detailed operational coordinate is at an uprecendented low, just enough to allow us to avoid total disaster when they attack. This is unquestionably a low point in US-Israeli relations, and our strategic opponents are taking full advantage of it.

    • lola828

      So you think it is not a good thing for the U.S. to try and convince Israeli not to attack Iran at this point? So you think an Israeli attack right now on Iran would be a good thing for the world and the U.S.?
      Relations are not great between hardliners/neocons in Israel and the U.S., but not with Israel as a whole. In fact, relations with Israel have never been better.
      “Romney was in Jerusalem last weekend parading his Jewish-American supporters, kissing Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand and promising to be a less critical friend of Israel than Obama has been, but Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak somehow didn’t get with the program. Barak was effusive in his praise for Obama.
      “I should tell you honestly,” Barak told an interviewer, “that this administration under President Obama is doing, in regard to our security, more than anything I can remember in the past.”
      Similar expressions of support for Obama came from Shimon Peres, the Israeli president, who said Israelis’ security needs were “never better met than today under President Obama. This is a fact.”
      These two, Barak and Peres, really know how to hurt a guy. Their timing, from Romney’s point of view, was dreadful. Sometimes, it seems Mitt, even with all his money, can’t buy a break.”
      http://blog.nj.com/njv_john_farmer/2012/08/mitt_romneys_rough_week_highli.html

    • Popsmoke

      i am not buying this Israeli daydream attack plan. Yes we are at a low point but the Israelis need to get real and stop this bullshit political game with us. If they do attack then there should not be any US support forthcoming.

    • lola828

      I doubt your “backchannels” are any better than Larry Johnson’s and his seem to be pretty bad.
      So you think it is a bad good thing for the U.S. to try and convince Israeli not to attack Iran at this point? You think an Israeli attack right now on Iran would be a good thing for the world and the U.S.?
      Always the thing with you military/intelligence guys. Always a hammer looking for a nail. Military strikes will do absolutely nothing other than throw the world into further turmoil and economic uncertainty, which is something I guess you would hope for, so your guy Romney may have a better chance.
      By the way relations are not great between Israeli hardliners/neocons and the U.S., but not with Israel as a whole. In fact, relations with Israel have never been better.

      “Romney was in Jerusalem last weekend parading his Jewish-American supporters, kissing Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand and promising to be a less critical friend of Israel than Obama has been, but Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak somehow didn’t get with the program. Barak was effusive in his praise for Obama.
      “I should tell you honestly,” Barak told an interviewer, “that this administration under President Obama is doing, in regard to our security, more than anything I can remember in the past.”
      Similar expressions of support for Obama came from Shimon Peres, the Israeli president, who said Israelis’ security needs were “never better met than today under President Obama. This is a fact.”
      These two, Barak and Peres, really know how to hurt a guy. Their timing, from Romney’s point of view, was dreadful. Sometimes, it seems Mitt, even with all his money, can’t buy a break.”
      http://blog.nj.com/njv_john_farmer/2012/08/mitt_romneys_rough_week_highli.html

      • Hokma

        Same crap link would get the same answer – wait till Obama is out of office to see what they really think of the pond scum. Actually wait till Hillary is retired and writes her book. Revenge is best served cold.

        Poll of Israelis favor Romney 2:1

        • lola828

          How about you give us the link to that Poll? Sounds like a bunch of BS.

          • Hokma

            Go find it yourself Jew-hater.

            As far as the 68% of American Jews who still support Obama, first let’s see how that turns out on election day since it is declining a lot.

            Also, there are Jews in name only and are not people who support Israel.

  • Hokma

    There is only one reason for this to be imminent – Barack Obama.

    From what I have read coming out of Israel, any action against Iran could wait but what is of great concern to Israel if a possible second term for Obama.

    There has been a very warranted complete lack of trust with Obama and Netanyahu knows that in a second term, an unrestrained Obama could be a virtual enemy of Israel and enabler of Iran. At that point any attack by Israel would become an impossible task simply by the obstacles that would be thrown by Obama.

    Israel, including the Likud Party do not want any war, What I hope is happening is that the real audience for these threats emanating from Israel are intended for Obama to force him to make and put in place certain guarantees before the election for the period following the election.

    • TeakWoodKite

      The details are leaked to make it more difficult for Israel to strike. What is not mentioned by Larry is the current intel on Iran’s pursuit of weapons grade material. What is interesting is the NIE that was released in Bush’s last term that was slammed by Bush as way off the mark.
      I wonder where the hands on that clock are now?
      Iran is not a threat to us directly perhaps , but Obama is not inclined to back Israel’s play and for that, there is a heavy political price to pay during an election season… So being the predictable political createn that he is, BO would only make the lame rethorical statement and do nothing but frustrate Isreal. If it was so important, has anyone seen on thin dime of “peace talks” hosted by Obama? He has NO diplomacy. Sanctions are like so much water through one’s hand and Iran has been making circumventing them into a high art form.

  • TeakWoodKite

    LJ, your not.
    Iran is gearing up for seventy virgins with Russia and China giving them all the e-lint at their disposal, it will be nearly impossible for the US to sit back and watch on the side lines…
    The biggest concern I have, is will BO win re-election on the issue? When was the last time someone was voted out during a “war”? And Harp is right, the other great concern is that BO has alienated so many nations, that many are not inclined to share critical details which may leave the US in a position to get blindsided.

  • HELENK2

    why do they make the plans public?? do they think the enemy can not read??
    I can understand stories about a coming conflict being made public. But why the plans???

    • Malcolm_Reynolds

      Psy-ops

  • HARP2

    I wouldn`t trust Obama with ANY information.