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Snark from Salon … and hk2′s open thread

Salon‘s snarky story takes us to a new site to check out! From “The website where Mitt Romney’s winning in a landslide,” Salon magazine, September 25, 2012 — with this subtitle:

At UnSkewed Polls, “liberal media bias” is removed
from every survey that shows Obama ahead.
Guess who wins?

I present UnSkewedPolls.com, the best new website on the political Internet. UnSkewed Polls finally removes the “liberal media bias” from every single national opinion poll, and it turns out that “unskewing” them means “making it so that Romney is ahead by a lot.” Rick Perry approves!

The UnSkewed Average has Romney at 51.8 percent and Obama at a mere 44 percent. How does the genius behind UnSkewed Polls go about unskewing all the polls — like, for real, the vast majority of polls — that show the opposite result?

Well, Dean Chambers, the polling genius behind the site, simply “re-weights” every single national poll to reflect his belief that Republicans are undersampled, based on right-leaning pollster Rasmussen’s partisan breakdown of the electorate. (Scott Rasmussen blurbs: “you cannot compare partisan weighting from one polling firm to another.”)

Oh, I am impressed. One of the sources? Wonkette … check this out:

Wonkette’s story today? “DON’T WORRY, REPUBLICANS, WE HAVE FOUND THESE AWESOME MADE-UP POLLS FOR YOU.” That bit of top-drawer journalism is cited by Salon here:

[O]bviously “re-weighting” every single poll to reflect an electorate made up of a plurality of self-identified Republicans also involves a bit of guesswork! Like, for example, sometimes polls don’t include crosstabs, so Mr. Unskewed just assumes they’re skewed with liberal media bias, and corrects accordingly.

Rasmussen’s party ID makeup does not remotely resemble any other organization’s party ID makeup. Every other organization finds that more Americans identify as Democrats or independents than Republicans, and that has been the case for years, …

Hey, if you insist, read it all here: “The website where Mitt Romney’s winning in a landslide.”

Or, better yet, go here: UnSkewedPolls.com.

OPEN THREAD!

  • iert2

    Batchelor you can believe what you want. Yes, there is a chance the upswing was just a convention bump (although where is Romney convention bump?), but as we get further and further away from the convention, it has to be something more.
    I suggest you read Nate Silver. He is the best the business at interpreting polls.
    Here is a good piece for you to read:
    “This is probably about the last week, for instance, in which Mitt Romney can reasonably hope that President Obama’s numbers will deteriorate organically because of a convention bounce. That is not to say that Mr. Obama’s standing could not decline later on in the race, for any number of reasons. But if they do, it will probably need to be forced by Mr. Romney’s campaign, or by developments in the news cycle, not the mere loss of post-convention momentum.”
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n
    In the last 70 years there have been very few cases where a challenger was able to catch-up this late in the race.

  • RPL29

    The real reason that Obama isn’t meeting with world leaders is that, by protocol, the challenger for the presidency must be given equal time with the heads of state. This would make Romney look “presidential,” while Obama gets no advantange. If Obama doesn’t meet with them in an official capacity then Romney can’t either. If Romney meets any of them it’ll be informal, and the press doesn’t have to cover it.

  • binky354

    Wonkette is still around? I found that site so disgusting I could go there no longer.

  • JohnnyTwoDog

    After reading my long comment, this is all that needs to be said:
    In 2004 the vote was 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, 26% Independent.
    In 2008 with a historical transformative candidate, and the aftertaste of Bush II, the vote was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Independent.
    The 2012 Gallup, PPP, and Reason Rupe polls assume the vote will be 50% Democrat, 42% Republican, 9% Independent. They assume the 18-29 year old vote will be close to the 2008 level at 16% for 2012. They give Obama a solid 8 point tilt, plus fewer independents who skew towards Republican.

  • JohnnyTwoDog

    The polls all except Rassmussen, assume that Obama is the same historical transformative candidate that he was in 2008. He isn’t. The MSM can’t and doesn’t make that claim this season.

    In 2008 many new voters believed they were actally partying with Will.I.Am, Oprah, George Clooney, and every other Hollywood animal. All they had to do was vote and the A list invites would be ringing on their phones.

    That mania does not exist this time around.

    In 2008 the percentage of 18-29 year olds who voted doubled from 9% to 18% of the vote. Expect that percentage to return closer to the historical norm, and a significant number of those now 22-33 year olds to switch their vote in favor of a job creator. The credit card, rent, car, and school loan bills turn out to be very real. Obama is not feeding their families – food stamps don’t cut it.

    In 2004 the vote was 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, 26% Independent.

    In 2008 with a historical transformative candidate, and the aftertaste of Bush II, the vote was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, 29% Independent.

    The 2012 Gallup, PPP, and Reason Rupe polls assume the vote will be 50% Democrat, 42% Republican, 9% Independent. They assume the 18-29 year old vote will be close to the 2008 level at 16% for 2012. They give Obama a solid 8 point tilt, plus fewer independents who skew towards Republican.

    The only group that remains the same is the percentage of female voters. In 2008 that group had a historically high percent of first time, liberal, and minority voters.

    Pew research calls the 2008 electorate the most diverse in history. Can that be maintained without a historical candidate? Doubt it.

    But it still all comes down to Ohio.

    • akaPatience

      Interesting analysis JohnnyTwoDog. Thank you! I live in OH and although I’m loathe to divulge personal info, I’m going to make an exception here and reveal that I live in Cincinnati, which is in Hamilton Co. OH. Now, Hamilton Co. has traditionally been reliably Republican but it went for Obama in 2008. Cincinnati is about 43% AA and has an AA Democratic mayor and City Manager. In the last month or so, I’ve seen a lot of young AA people soliciting non-registered pedestrians to sign up to register to vote. And of course like in some other states, there’s been a brouhaha about voter suppression by Republicans, eventhough voting hours, etc., have become increasingly liberal over the years yet voter participation has decreased!
      Anyway, one thing that’s been bothering me is that I’m seeing as many if not more Obama ads on TV as Romney. And the Romney ads aren’t exactly terribly compelling. I’m not seeing some of the more interesting ones I’ve seen on the Internet. Maybe that doesn’t matter though — maybe those, which seem more tailored to younger voters, wouldn’t bee seen by them on TV anyway nor would they be appreciated by older voters. Whatever. But what really discouraged me the other day is that I ran into a fellow property owner who’s the landlord of the 2012 Republican headquarters downtown. He’s a former Republican office holder. I asked him how it was going and he said he wasn’t optimistic. He said the local Romney people seem too unconcerned. I mentioned to him that someone on a blog (meaning NQ) said she’d ordered signs, etc., from the Romney website and hasn’t received them even though she already paid!
      I can only hope internal polling is telling a different story than polls the public are privy to. I keep hearing about a Romney ad blitz but I haven’t seen it yet. He can’t afford to wait too late in the game — absentee ballot applications are WAY up and many people will probably mail them in before the last couple of weeks before Election Day.
      Sorry for the long response!

      • JohnnyTwoDog

        That anecdotal analysis is somewhat discouraging. Romney needs Ohio. But it’s not like Romney lacks funds to go after it with TV spots. Lack of ground organization, wich generates word of mouth, friend endosements – peer pressure – concerns me more than TV ads.

        There have been several recent articles that making a case that most if not all TV advertising is wasted money. TV advertising is spent on largly the same pool of voters who watch the same programs day in day out.

        So eventually political TV ads have little if any effect. It’s not the same as being able to claim Tide is “New and Improved” or claiming the superiority of this model year car or truck.
        Some advertising is needed to not gie the impression of falling off the face of the earth. But if the votes are not generated with ads, they have to be generated from somewhere.

        MSM and TV in particular are still and always driven by one thing, the advertising dollar. They get less dollars when they have less viewers in the age bracket that advertisers love, the 18-39 year old bracket. The same bracket that loves Obama. TV won’t risk losing viewers in that bracket so naturally they favor Obama to attract those viewers. Which also makes it un-natural for Romney to spend mega cash in that medium.

  • HELENK2

    http://weaselzippers.us/2012/09/25/islamic-battle-flag-makes-its-way-from-cairo-to-nyc-muslim-day-parade/#disqus_thread

    islamic battle flag makes its way from cairo to NYC muslim day parade

    you want to fly that flag then get your ass out of my country

  • HELENK2

    on Fox now
    John Sununu and Joe Trippi on the Hannity show
    when the video comes up you have to see it
    John Sununu has Joe Trippi stuttering

  • HObama HObamanana

    This is sure to piss Neil Young off, but whatever dude. It’s an anthem of my generation that I modified to align with the world we live in today. You probably already know the tune. Feel free to sing along.

    Black banners and Islamists coming
    Our freedom is under the gun
    This autumn our flags are burning
    Four dead in Libya

    Gotta get down to it
    Militants mowing us down
    Should have been stopped long ago
    What if you knew him
    And found him dead on the ground
    How can you lie when you know?

    Four dead in Libya
    Four dead in Libya
    Four dead in Libya
    Four dead in Libya

    How, how many more?
    Why, why did they die?

  • HELENK2

    http://www.westernjournalism.com/black-bishop-blacks-christians-jews-godly-must-leave-the-democrat-party-now/

    I think the democrats screwed up bigtime
    black bishop : blacks, christians, jews,godly must leave the democratic party now

    • binky354

      I hope someone is listening to him.

  • KataKimbe

    All I am asking is… Who had the most correct polls last time around? Answer: it was that “based on right-leaning pollster Rasmussen’s” Rasmussen.

  • HELENK2

    http://www.maciverinstitute.com/2012/09/website-error-put-wisconsin-military-ballots-at-risk/index.php

    this might have been one way the dems counted on to win WIsconsin. wrong date to have military ballots in

    • BronwynsHarbor

      That just fries me … can you imagine what the soldiers are saying? Those who vote anyway? And I bet part of the reason they don’t vote is that they’re fed up with both parties but NO ONE could ever accuse Republicans of manipulating ballots so soldiers can’t get their votes counted.

  • HELENK2

    http://freebeacon.com/iran-preps-new-drones/

    iran preps new drones. technology from downed US drone??

  • HELENK2

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/ahmadinejad-criticizes-navy-seals-for-killing-osama-bin-laden/article/2508950?custom_click=rss#.UGHhhxj2FNg

    ahmadinejad criticizes Navy SEALS for killing osama bin laden

    keep it up fool , you might be next

  • HELENK2

    http://weaselzippers.us/2012/09/25/afghan-16-year-old-girl-whipped-100-times-on-orders-of-muslim-cleric/

    16 year old girl whipped 100 times on orders of muslim cleric

    not too long ago
    a 13 year old girl raped by 3 muslim men when she reported it they put her in a pit and stoned her to death while “good ” muslims cheered

    how many young girls have had acid thrown in their faces for trying to go to school?

    several years ago
    bombs placed under a school in Russia during the summer break and set off when the kids went back to school

    who stands up for them, not backtrack he is too busy bowing to their murders

  • HELENK2
    • CathyInKs

      Way to go for them! It’s the ad wars that are going to make the difference in this election! Man that hits it on the head and I’m so glad they used Obama’s entire name – Barack Hussein Obama. There is a lot of truth in a name – particularly a name that he chose as an adult. Would Obama had been a different man, a different leader had his name remained Barry Soetero?

  • HELENK2
    • HObama HObamanana

      But the attacks of the last two weeks are not simply an assault on America.

      Bullshit, that’s exactly what this was. This was not an attack on the world of nations, it was an attack upon one nation. Ours.

  • http://twitter.com/beyondpartisan beyond partisan

    Remember how these liberal pundits were trying to spin Scott Walker’s lead in the Wisconsin recall as being only “close” and dismissing any poll over 3% as “partisan”? And then Walker kicked the pants of the unions with a huge win. That these same people are trying to mock any sort of reasonable skew of Republicans in the polls shows just how desperate they are.

  • http://twitter.com/beyondpartisan beyond partisan

    Remember how these liberal pundits were trying to spin Scott Walker’s lead in the Wisconsin recall as being only “close” and dismissing any poll over 3% as “partisan”? And then Walker kicked the pants of the unions with a huge win. That these same people are trying to mock any sort of reasonable skew of Republicans in the polls shows just how desperate they are.

    • http://twitter.com/thebigotbasher The Bigotbasher

      In 2004 Democrats did not believe the polls.
      In 2006 the GOP did not believe the polls.In 2008 the GOP did not believe the polls.
      In 2010 Democrats did nit believe the polls.
      In 2012 the GOP does not believe the polls..

      When you are on the losing side blame the polls.

      • Hokma

        incoherent ?????

        • http://twitter.com/thebigotbasher The Bigotbasher

          Very coherent, just typos. If you are losing you blame the polls.

          • shelldoll2

            No I blame you. Look up your party’s history. They fought civil rights and women’s rights for decades.
            But that doesn’t bother you.

            Polls be damned.

            Your party has a long an brutal history of oppressing both women and black people.

            But let’s not talk about that.

            Trying to sideline us with petty slogans?
            Ain’t working.

      • KataKimbe

        There is something to your thinking… but you are forgetting the bias in the polls too. I also remember the polls saying Kerry would win in 2004 and we know he did not.

  • HELENK2

    http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/25/the-jack-ryan-files-one-mans-playbook-for-defeating-state-sen-barack-obama/

    this should be interesting
    daily caller got Jack Ryan’s opposition research against backtrack from his first senate race

    • Hokma

      Unfortunately Axelrod got his old boss at the Chicago Trib to publish Ryan’s sealed divorce records other wise we would not have known who this bum is. let alone have to deal with him. And that was after Axelrod got the Chicago Trib to publish the sealed divorce records of Dem Blair Hull so that Obama could win the nomination first.

      • getfitnow

        Okay, this was the US senate run. When he ran for state senate, was there another incident of sealed documents being opened?

        • Hokma

          I was not aware of State Senate on the U.S. Senate run and that happened twice.

        • FLDemFem

          No. In that race he hired a lawyer to go over the petitions for the other candidate and got her out of the race when she came up short. This was the same lady who had held the job before he came along and he had agreed to step down and let her run if her bid for a seat in the House of Representatives didn’t work. He didn’t step down, he lied, again. Lies and broken promises line his path to power.

          • getfitnow

            Yes, Alice Palmer. that was disgusting the trick he played. I thought I read that for one of the reelection campaigns to the state house, docs were opened. I’m probably merging a lot of info.

            I do wish the debate between That One and Bobby Rush would surface.

          • shelldoll2

            This was an African American woman he ran over to get what he wanted.

            But let’s not talk about that.

  • HELENK2

    http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/25/the-jack-ryan-files-one-mans-playbook-for-defeating-state-sen-barack-obama/

    this should be interesting
    daily caller got Jack Ryan’s opposition research against backtrack from his first senate race

  • HELENK2

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/24/muslim-led-nations-seek-ban-on-insult/

    muslim led nations seek ban on insult to islam.

    maybe when they stop killing people of other religions and stop burning churches and tearing down thousand year old budhas they could ask for this.
    till then screw them, they insult the world with their sickness

    • Hokma

      you left out our preference not to behead people.

      • http://twitter.com/thebigotbasher The Bigotbasher

        Tell that to the Lords Resistance Army, a Christian Taliban that Limbaugh defended,

  • HELENK2

    from a commenter at the crawdad hole

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/kt-mcfarland-obama-blocked-mitt-romney-from-meeting-with-world-leaders-at-un-video/

    backtrack blocked Romney from meeting with world leaders at the UN

    • TeakWoodKite

      Interesting point.

    • getfitnow

      No surprise. Romney looks and sounds more presidential.

      Romney’s closing paragraph of his remarks at Clinton’s Global Initiative.

      “A year from now, I hope to return to this meeting as president, having
      made substantial progress toward achieving the reforms I’ve outlined. But I also hope to remind the world of the goodness and the bigness of the American heart. I will never apologize for America. I believe that America has been one
      of the greatest forces for good the world has ever known. We can hold that knowledge in our hearts with humility and unwavering conviction.”

      Please, god, America needs this
      man as POTUS.

      • CathyInKs

        Amen Getfit! Wonder who Bill’s really voting for in Nov.?

    • CathyInKs

      Despicable! At a time when we need a president to lead, our president runs off to the ladies at the View and doesn’t let the man who could assure our friends and put our enemies on alert do anything for this country!

  • HELENK2

    http://pjmedia.com/blog/is-bill-ayers-influencing-race-to-the-top/

    Is bomber bill ayres influencing race to the top educational program?

    • MG6

      Of course! Only those who are weak minded will fall for his hatred toward his country.

  • HELENK2

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/leading-coal-company-will-lay-off-1200-workers-blames-obama-epa-regulations/

    coal company to lay of 1200 workers in Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virgina due to backtrack’s EPA regulations

  • HELENK2
  • HELENK2
  • beachnan

    Loved the unskewedpolls web site. Thanks to one of our readers who pointed it out the other day. The articles are very informative and shows this race is nothing like the msm would like us to believe. Fox News needs to see this website and change their reporting. Frankly, after seeing Obama refuse to meet with any foreign leaders at the UN and instead spend his time on the campaign trail or going on stupid shows such as “The View”, it is hard to imagine how anyone can take this Obama presidency seriously. He doesn’t, so why should we? One and done sounds good to me.

    • win43

      The nice thing about these stories about what the race is “really” like is that they’re verifiable.

      If Romney really is running 8 points up on Obama rather than the 4 points behind that the RCP average shows, then we’ll find out in six weeks.

      • Hokma

        Rasmussen and Pew have proven to be the most reliable political election polls just based on being right for the past few elections.

        The unskew is a good answer to the some of the ridiculous polls out but it does not into consideration voting patterns.

        What many of the heavily Dem skewed polls base their sampling on is the voting patterns of the ’08 election which is not happening this time around which is why they are so heavily biased toward Dems. Although in some cases polls do just cheat more towards Dems. The RCP poll does not factor any of this in and sine most polls are weighted heavily towards Dems based on what I just stated then their average is not correct.

        Unfortunately polls have become corrupt because they are being used as a campaign tool rather than a verifiable research tool.

        It should also be understood that at this time in the race Carter was beating Reagan and it was the debates that turned the tide toward Reagan.

        • http://twitter.com/thebigotbasher The Bigotbasher

          Actually all Ras does is change their model nearer to the election to retain credibility. Three weeks from now they will show actual results. In swing states they already are and Ras shows a big problem for the vulture/voucher ticket.

          • Hokma

            “Actually all Ras does is change their model nearer to the election to retain credibility.”

            No they don’t. You can’t just make shit up and think you can get away with it.

            • http://twitter.com/thebigotbasher The Bigotbasher

              Want to look at their 2008 polls?

              • shelldoll2

                Want to look at my personal experience as a black American? No?

                Did not think so. After all we are just stupid niggers that need protection by white liberals. Just like Obama.

                Right?

    • Dissentispatriotic

      So many of Obama’s voters don’t take it seriously and really don’t care. He’s one of “them”. As I was told today by someone watching a re-run of The View, “it really showed him in a different light”. She was thrilled to see him there with Michelle. Guess that’s the audience he targeted, though he would have gotten that vote regardless.
      Those two ought to get academy awards for their ability to pull off this sham.

    • elizabethrc

      Especially after that UN speech which was a not so coded message to the Middle East that he’s with them more than he’s with us.
      Seriously? Does any leader in the ME think of Obama as anything except a tool and a fool?

    • BettsAZ

      I agree. If you look at the large % of voters that think the country is going in the wrong direction, it’s hard to take the polls seriously. Perhaps they polled Howard Stern’s “people on the street”.
      This may backfire on the media. By falsely putting Obama ahead in every poll, there may be a lot of Obama supporters who don’t feel the urgency to vote at all.

  • HELENK2

    iowa hawk

    David Burge
    ‏@iowahawkblog

    The First Amendment is incompatible with your religion? Then get another religion.

  • HELENK2
  • HELENK2

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obama-adviser-if-he-met-one-leader-he-would-have-meet-10_653033.html

    backtrack advisor: if he met one leader he would have to meet 10

    WELL GUESS WHAT IDIOT THAT IS HIS JOB

    • Hokma

      LOL. Based on comments by Dana Milbank and Chuck Todd it appears Obama is pushing “good will” with the press too far and they have turned on him in regard to this.

      I just thought of it. Obama reminds me of the Tom Hanks character in the movie “BIG” and the same mentality.

      At a time of international crisis and all the players are in NYC, where’s Obama? Sitting with the idiots on “The View” telling them that he is the “eye candy.”

      Does he have any idea that world leaders are watching this and imagine what they are thinking? In the case of the enemies of the U.S. and Israel they are saying, “it does not get any better than this.”

      • beachnan

        I wonder what Romney’s ad team can do with that stupid comment by Obama about being “eye candy”. BTW-YUCK!

        • Hokma

          We joke about Jimmy Carter but Carter is Lincoln compared to Obama. In fact Obama was the best thing to happen for Carter’s reputation rehabilitation.

          And you have that dim-wit Joy Behar saying that he was better off meeting with the women of the view than with Bibi Netanyahu.

          I mean you really have to ask yourself, where are we? It’s like we’re living through the collapse of the United States – like the fall of Rome – but inside some kind of Airplane movie sequel.

          You better believe that Romney just won the foreign policy debate with Obama’s elitist ignorance this week and last.

    • CathyInKs

      So is this Obama’s motto – “When he can’t take the heat he gets out of the kitchen and heads to the mommas at the View?”

  • HELENK2

    I have never been so embarrassed or ashamed of the president of the United States of America.

    he just declared open season on us

  • HELENK2
    • HObama HObamanana

      If only we had a President with this man’s cajones. I totally agree with him.

      • CathyInKs

        Me too!