Bronwyn: William Arnone’s analysis, updated, to track states / electoral votes. (Original intro below.)

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Asterisk (*): States William projects will switch from 2008 vote.


States | Romney/Ryan | Projected to Win (Electoral Votes in parentheses):
Decisively (10+%) – 15 states, 125 EVs, 1 CD switch:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Nebraska (5) (*one Congressional District)
Oklahoma (7)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

Narrowly (by under 10 percentage points) – 13 states with 149 EVs, 6 switches
Arizona (11)
*Florida (29)
Georgia (16)
*Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)
Montana (3)
*Nevada (6)
*North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
*Pennsylvania (20)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
*Virginia (13)

TOTAL: 28 states with 274 Electoral Votes – 6 states and 1 CD switches

States that the Democratic ticket of President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are projected to win (with their Electoral Votes in parentheses):

Decisively (by at least 10 percentage points) – 18 states and the District of Columbia with 227 EVs, no switches
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
Michigan (16)
Minnesota (10)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)
Wisconsin (10)

Narrowly (by under 10 percentage points) – 4 states with 37 EVs, no switches
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)

TOTAL: 22 states and the District of Columbia with 264 Electoral Votes – no switches

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I am pleased that William supports Romney/Ryan. He said I may use his name and analysis. In 2009, In The Beltway wrote, “Mr. Arnone, who is with Ernst & Young [spoke] with Mrs. Clinton last month when she threw a thank-you reception for her supporters in Manhattan.” Thank you, William.

As you may recall, in 2008 I issued a series of assessments on that year’s Presidential election. The Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama and Senator Joe Biden won 28 states, part of one state, and the District of Columbia with 365 electoral votes. The Republican ticket of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin won 21 states and parts of one state with 173 electoral votes.

In my final pre-election assessment, I had the Obama-Biden ticket winning 27 states (including the District of Columbia) and part of one state (Nebraska) with 339 electoral votes. I had the McCain-Palin ticket winning 23 states and parts of one state (Nebraska) with 199 electoral votes. I missed two states: North Carolina (15 electoral votes) and Indiana (11 electoral votes).

This year, I refrained from issuing periodic assessments due largely to the extreme fluidity of the data I was tracking. As we approach Election Day, here are my assessments.

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Based on a projected turnout of nearly 139 million voters, the Obama-Biden ticket is projected to win 52.2% of the nationwide popular vote and Romney-Ryan 46.7%. As last occurred in the 2000 election,the Democratic Presidential ticket is projected to win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote.

One oddity: If the electoral vote had not changed from 2008, then the Democratic Presidential ticket would have won 272 electoral votes to the Republican Presidential ticket’s 266 electoral votes.

For a brief analysis of my assessment with a focus on older voters (age 65+), please see my Huffington Post piece, including my comment at “Will Older Voters Retire ….”

As always, I welcome your comments and questions.

–William Arnone
New York, NY

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P.S. This will help us tonight and hopefully not tomorrow. I haven’t received his analyses since 2009, and am so pleased he included me on his list of recipients. And I am thrilled that he too arrived at the same conclusions many of us did. We need a great money manager, hopefully for eight years. We can get rid of HARRY REID once and for all when MITT RUNS AGAIN! Same year! 2016. Cannot wait. – Bronwyn

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  • jemblue

    Why do you think states like Georgia and South Carolina will be (relatively) close? I know they were in ’08, but this is a much better year for the GOP.

    I’m curious also as to why you think Michigan and Minnesota will go Obama by more than 10 points. While both states have been going for the Democrats the last few times, their margins of victory are not normally that large. In Michigan (my home state), Gore got 51% in 2000 and Kerry also got 51% in 2004. 2008 brought a much larger margin for Obama, but it was an exceptional year for the Dems (and exceptionally bad for the GOP).

  • foxyladi14

    Big change from 08 Here is why.

    we are refereed to as the silent majority.

    But today we are not silent.

    We are Roaring like an African Lion.

  • mgm

    I shudder to think of the pandemonium that will most certainly occur if Obama wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College/Presidency to Romney. It’s really too awful even to imagine. Pray, or do whatever you do in dire straits, that Romney wins BIG and decisively.

    • beyond partisan

      Don’t worry…that’s not going to happen. If Romney wins, and I think he will, it will be a clear victory.


      They really can’t complain. After all, in 2008 Hillary Clinton won more votes in the Democratic primary (the popular vote) but Obama was given the nomination by super delegates (the electoral college).

      They had no problem with the concept at that time.

  • KataKimbe

    I read this and had to laugh. UN poll-watchers ‘amazed’ US doesn’t require ID’s to vote.

    “The most often noted difference between American elections among the visitors was that in most U.S. states, voters need no identification. Voters can also vote by mail, sometimes online, and there’s often no way to know if one person has voted several times under different names, unlike in some Arab countries, where voters ink their fingers when casting their ballots.”

    • MG6

      I wonder how the NAACP and Jesse Jackson feel about THAT! They have been calling foul and voter suppression all the way to the UN. The only suppression I have seen is from the Dems and the NBPP.

      • elizabethrc

        Today I read that the Black Panthers are again at Philadelphia polling places. I also read that a group of former and retired Navy Seals are going to be present at those same polling places, let’s say, as a counter balance to their intimidations and tough guy acts.
        The pitiful little bullies in black will be shaking in their paramilitary boots when the come face to face with real men. This is what needs to happen, going forward, when voter intimidation and fraud appear.

    • BronwynsHarbor

      Where did my message go?