Bronwyn: William Arnone’s analysis, updated, to track states / electoral votes. (Original intro below.)
Asterisk (*): States William projects will switch from 2008 vote.
States | Romney/Ryan | Projected to Win (Electoral Votes in parentheses):
—Decisively (10+%) – 15 states, 125 EVs, 1 CD switch:
Nebraska (5) (*one Congressional District)
West Virginia (5)
—Narrowly (by under 10 percentage points) – 13 states with 149 EVs, 6 switches
*North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
TOTAL: 28 states with 274 Electoral Votes – 6 states and 1 CD switches
States that the Democratic ticket of President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are projected to win (with their Electoral Votes in parentheses):
—Decisively (by at least 10 percentage points) – 18 states and the District of Columbia with 227 EVs, no switches
District of Columbia (3)
New Jersey (14)
New Mexico (5)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
—Narrowly (by under 10 percentage points) – 4 states with 37 EVs, no switches
New Hampshire (4)
TOTAL: 22 states and the District of Columbia with 264 Electoral Votes – no switches
THE ORIGINAL OPENING PARAGRAPHS:
I am pleased that William supports Romney/Ryan. He said I may use his name and analysis. In 2009, In The Beltway wrote, “Mr. Arnone, who is with Ernst & Young [spoke] with Mrs. Clinton last month when she threw a thank-you reception for her supporters in Manhattan.” Thank you, William.
As you may recall, in 2008 I issued a series of assessments on that year’s Presidential election. The Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama and Senator Joe Biden won 28 states, part of one state, and the District of Columbia with 365 electoral votes. The Republican ticket of Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin won 21 states and parts of one state with 173 electoral votes.
In my final pre-election assessment, I had the Obama-Biden ticket winning 27 states (including the District of Columbia) and part of one state (Nebraska) with 339 electoral votes. I had the McCain-Palin ticket winning 23 states and parts of one state (Nebraska) with 199 electoral votes. I missed two states: North Carolina (15 electoral votes) and Indiana (11 electoral votes).
This year, I refrained from issuing periodic assessments due largely to the extreme fluidity of the data I was tracking. As we approach Election Day, here are my assessments.
Based on a projected turnout of nearly 139 million voters, the Obama-Biden ticket is projected to win 52.2% of the nationwide popular vote and Romney-Ryan 46.7%. As last occurred in the 2000 election,the Democratic Presidential ticket is projected to win the popular vote, but lose the electoral vote.
One oddity: If the electoral vote had not changed from 2008, then the Democratic Presidential ticket would have won 272 electoral votes to the Republican Presidential ticket’s 266 electoral votes.
For a brief analysis of my assessment with a focus on older voters (age 65+), please see my Huffington Post piece, including my comment at “Will Older Voters Retire ….”
As always, I welcome your comments and questions.
New York, NY
P.S. This will help us tonight and hopefully not tomorrow. I haven’t received his analyses since 2009, and am so pleased he included me on his list of recipients. And I am thrilled that he too arrived at the same conclusions many of us did. We need a great money manager, hopefully for eight years. We can get rid of HARRY REID once and for all when MITT RUNS AGAIN! Same year! 2016. Cannot wait. – Bronwyn