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Borscht, Blinis, and Bombs…oh my!

By Shtuey Shtuey on December 6, 2008 at 8:00 AM in Current Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Russia

In 1991, on the eve of the collapse of the Soviet Union, I went to visit my grandmother in Florida (all those stereotypes you hear about retirees and the early bird special…they’re true).  She was born in Ukraine and immigrated with her family to the United States when she was a teenager, shortly before the breakout of World War I.  Though she spent most of her life living here, she continued to follow the political events in what became the USSR. 

One night during my visit she expressed concern that the fall of communism would not spell sunshine, lollypops, and moonbeams for the Russian people.  In fact, she saw civil wars, and an unchecked black market mafia tearing the old empire apart.  She wasn’t too far off.  Something else she said to me that night stuck with me.  The world was expecting the old Soviet Union to embrace democracy and hold hands with the West.  She knew that was not going to happen.  She went on saying that the Russian people had never known anything resembling democracy in their history.  They would always turn to, and feel safer with, a strong centralized government.  That’s what they had under the Czars, and under communism.  Why should post-communist Russia be any different?  She also correctly predicted that any democratic Russia would be short lived, and that eventually power would be consolidated back into the hands of the old communist apparatchiks who would move to reconstitute the old empire.  Was I surprised by the rise of former KGB (FSB…same difference) head Vladimir Putin?  Not really.

 So let’s fast forward to the summer of 2008.  Russia invades Georgia.  I don’t believe this was a dispute about borders, territory, protecting Russian nationals, or any other presumed reason.  Putin has been telegraphing messages for months.  The first is that Russia is intent on rebuilding its empire, not only within its immediate sphere of influence, but in the Middle East as well. 

We already know that the Russians are assisting the Iranians with the construction of Chernobyl South (if there wasn’t an acute risk of Iranian uranium ending up in a suitcase in downtown Tel Aviv, or packed into a long range missile, I wonder if the Israelis would be content to wait on the new plant to go China Syndrome and turn Iran to a sheet of glass).  It is also no secret that Israel has established good relations with Georgia, selling them weapons to the tune of $300 million dollars last year.  Mother Russia was not at all pleased.  Israeli defense experts believe that Russia has sold surface to air defense systems to both Syria and Iran, specifically the SA-3 Goa, a low altitude system that might be used to say…defend against an attack like Operation Ofra where the Israeli Air Force leveled the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq, much to the private cheering of Iraq’s neighbors.  Rosoboronexport, the firm holding a monopoly on Russian arms exports, claims that it made no such sales. And yet Bashar Assad went to Russia to secure an arms deal in August.  How many sides of one’s face can someone speak out of at the same time?  Maybe we should consult the President-Select on that one.

 I’m recalling those golden Cold War days of yesteryear when the Soviets and the United States fought their proxy war via Israel and the Arabs.  Happy days are here again…oy gevalt.

 But what I think was really behind the aggression against Georgia was a shakedown for the Russian military in the event they move against the real prize: Crimea, principle home of the Black Sea Fleet, the majority of which Russia retains.  Controlling Crimea would, in my opinion, translate into Russian proxy control of Ukraine.  There is already a Russian military presence there, and the Russian government has stirred up a great deal of controversy by distributing Russian passports to residents.  Could this be laying the groundwork for an invasion based on the pretext of defending Russian nationals?  One need only look at Georgia for the answer to that question.  And clearly the Ukranian leadership is concerned, as it restricted the movement of Russian ships to and from the Black Sea Fleet’s home port of Sevastopol, after Russia used Black Sea Fleet ships during the Georgia invasion.  Russia retains a 20 year lease on the Sevastopol port.

 Would Putin be willing to make this move with John McCain in the White House?  I think he would be a lot less likely, than say with a foreign relations novice in the Oval Office.  Soon to be Secretary of State Clinton, do America a favor and fully debrief the man who would be king on the situation.  Last time I checked he thought he could convene the United Nations Security Council and get them to condemn Russian aggression (you might also want to remind him that Russia is a permanent member of the UNSC and has veto power over any and all resolutions).  And maybe put face time with the Russian leadership near the top of your agenda.  But considering your wonkish grasp of the world scene I would imagine you’ve got that covered.

 Hold on to your butts folks.  This could get ugly.  I wonder if Big Joe Biden is girding his loins yet.  At least someone with the capacity to see the big picture, and the spine not to back down, will be in the big chair at Foggy Bottom.  Can you imagine John “Lurch” Kerry asking Vlad to pass the Camembert? 

  • Mar

    My husband and I were in the Ukraine (to adopt) at the time of the Orange Revolution. Most people in Kiev were pulling for Yushenko and for stronger ties with the West.

    When we went to Odessa, some of the people we met favored Putin’s man.

    It seemed that the people who wanted closer ties to the west to offset Russia were those who lived in the areas that had been part of Poland before WWII and had grandparents who told them how different life was apart from the USSR.

    I do hope that as SoS, Hillary can fast track NATO and EU membership for the Ukraine.

    W may have looked in Putin’s eyes and thought he saw something, but Putin’s eyes were probably calculating how much he could put over on W.

    • JozefAL

      I’m not really sure how “different” life was in areas of the modern Ukraine that had been part of prewar Poland. Most of pre-War Poland was little more than an agricultural backwater and the eastern part (which was given to the USSR, and divided among the Soviet Republics of Byelorussia and Ukraine) was no better.
      Incidentally, the anecdote about the people you met doesn’t mean a lot. Odessa AND Kiev were both part of the Russian Empire from the late 18th Century until the break-up of the Soviet Union. Kiev is much closer to the Russian border than Odessa, but (IMS) Odessa was a major Russian naval port town. I’m sure you could find “some” people who voted for Obama in rural and urban areas of Alabama just as you could find “some” people in rural and urban areas of California who voted for McCain.

  • Lizzy

    I loved the personal perspective to this sobering post. Thanks for the analysis.

  • C.S.

    I don’t have a Russian grandmother but I must think like one because your grandmother and I have been saying the same thing since the collaspe. But I do have a niece by marriage who immigrated with her parents as a child and who remembers the old USSR and she admits that more and more she recognizes the Russia her parents escaped from.

    And the idea of an inept man like Soertoro/Obama; who seems unable to go beyond “what’s good for me and my “legacy”; going head to head with our enemies is just one of many reasons I did not support him; it’s like a toddler being in charge of a day care.

    But, the electoral college has not yet met and with two cases before the Supreme Court challenging his eligibility, I’m sure we will soon find out which way the wind blows. Since I have read there are around 20 court challenges to Obama’s identity and/or eligibility it is inconceivable that not one court has received one document of proof of his citizenship, and telling the Judicial Court system to read it off the net is just an insult. But, unless there is convincing proof, the electoral college will have to pick someone else; hopefully someone with more experience at reading our enemies than Soertoro/Obama.

    I, too, think McCain is a better choice for president. And by making Senator Clinton Secretary of State they are admitting that she has the right stuff to take on Putin and anyone else challenging the U. S. And if this Constitutional crisis puts someone else in the Commander in Chief seat, I’d take either one, political parties shouldn’t matter.

  • Galt

    Now I see why Hillary is going to be SoS. Her boss would have to wear a diaper to deal with this himself. Ugh.

  • http://mrsmithmyname.wordpress.com Mr. Smith

    It’s too bad your grandmother isn’t a member of the new administration. She’s probably more capable than anyone there.

    • http://ohmyvalve.blogspot.com/ shtuey

      Sadly, she passed away in 1999, but she was sharp as a tack to the end, with an abiding affection for seltzer.

  • DAB

    My mother was from the Ukraine and my father was of Ukrainian descent so I heard a lot of “Freedom for Ukraine” rhetoric around the house. Having finally attained that long-sought-after goal, Yushenko was poisoned within an inch of his life but the international community didn’t seem to want to really get involved. Pity, because the Russians continue to poison the entire region with their aggressive stance.

    I only hope that the drop in oil prices stifles their ability to expand — on the other hand, it just may provide them with an added incentive to grab all the booty that they can. Hold onto your hats!

  • jean breban

    Please dont bash Putin anymore.

    Here, in western Europe, we consider Putin as our last hope of freedom since you shamefully elected The Precious Incompetent.

    Who else now would save us from the islamists ?

  • http://mrsmithmyname.wordpress.com Mr. Smith

    Jean, Europe must save itself from the Islamists. No one can do it for you.

    • Pennsylvania Red

      and I didn’t elect the Precious. I was one of the 57 million who voted the right way.

      Jean needs to take it up with the DNC, the MSM, and ACORN.

      Tell them to save you from the islamists.

  • jean breban

    we are already lost, I know it.

    Dont destroy my dream, please.

  • Tricia Spiegel

    REALLY interesting post and perspective. Thank you.

  • Flo

    One factor just to think about is Putin rebuilding his empire with an asymetric army — hypothetically, that army can consist of terror groups, worldwide.

    Think of it in conjunction with the reach of the Russian mafia.

  • http://ezinearticles.com/?Three-Basic-Parenting-Styles&id=744499 Northwest rain

    It sounds like the cold war is heating up.

    “Shock Doctrine” by Naomi Klein has a chapter on Russia when it made the traumatic switch to the “new” economy.

    Military careers have been spent on both sides playing games of cat and mouse.

    It was beyond belief that Obama didn’t know how the UN worked (Veto power of Russia etc.) during the Russian invasion of Georgia this summer. This is basic information from grade school — so I’m wondering how well Obama retains basic grade school or high school information about government and International relations. I had some “mean” teachers who required us to draw on a blank piece of paper the countries of each region of the world — all neighbors and major bodies of water had to be drawn and named. I guess what these teachers were doing is to make us create a “mind map” in our brains with the countries and their relationship to other countries.

    Another thing we learned is that when there is a power void it will be filled — with the selection of a weak PEBO the US appears to be creating a power void — which the power players like Putin are itching to fill.

    • Flo

      I’m not sure it ever went away, Russia kind of pulling a fake, in the end.

      But I think they knew, some in defense, anyway, maybe wanting to see how it played out…

      • http://ezinearticles.com/?Three-Basic-Parenting-Styles&id=744499 Northwest rain

        I think you’re right — Russia needed to do a bit of retooling.

    • http://thenewagenda.net/ Woman Voter

      It sounds like the cold war is heating up.
      …………….

      That is one of the things that most of us feared when Clinton was thrown under the bus and the press went for their ‘chosen one’. It was clear that Obama thought once he was put in place that ‘all’ those bad people would come together and beam love beams to him.

      I suspect that Biden was warning of what is too come, we more than likely will end up in an other war and we know Obama will draft our daughters too (even though we have never seen his selective service papers). We will all be asked to support him, and not to question him.

      How much influence will Clinton have as SoS, is seen by looking back at Powell and his now famous speech at the UN. Powell had miss givings, but it was his job to go sell the war and Bush later even joked about it: “No weapons of mass destruction under here.” The SoS is there at the service of the president and like Powell, even if she has some reservations, it will be her duty to move the administration’s agenda forward.

      The ‘New Democratic’ base will soon lose their insulation and know what it is like to live under the fear of nuclear annihilation like we did as children, huddled under our desks being told that would protect us, when the drills were called.

      Thanks Shtuey, for the lovely prose, it makes for better understanding when told in a personalized way.

  • NomNomNom

    I’d freaking rather have the Russians supplying Europe with gas than the plan of the US to route Saudi gas through Georgia to Europe (one might consider that this plan will probably necessitate the forming of a new Kurdistan from chunks of Iraq, Iran and Turkey, while one is thinking about it).
    The idea of the US being the proxy mercenary army for another f#cking bunch of muslims doesn’t actually appeal to me.
    BTW, y’all read that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia wants criticism of Islam to be an international crime punishable by imprisonment?

    • http://thenewagenda.net/ Woman Voter

      BTW, y’all read that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia wants criticism of Islam to be an international crime punishable by imprisonment?
      …………….

      No, please post a link!

      • NomNomNom
        • http://ezinearticles.com/?Three-Basic-Parenting-Styles&id=744499 Northwest rain

          Islamophobia —

          It would seem that this subject discussed in the link above might be worth an article of its own.

          I won’t be paranoid and say that this sounds like the Saudi King is trying to impose one religion on the world. However, with the additional information that the US Treasury wants to explore using Sharia law in regards to banking and the fact that Sharia law is making inroads in the UK.

          Any criticism of “honor” killing or treatment of women in Islamic countries could be considered a crime?

          Read the article — it’s worth the time.

  • Steve_in_KC

    Shtuey, good call on Crimea being the real focal point of Russian aspirations in the area of Ukraine. It’s long been common knowledge that what Russia needs most and is most lacking are warm water ports for shipping and military purposes.

    Shipping routes will always be critical to major nations. The Black Sea, although mostly land-locked, has for years been shared only by the USSR and Turkey. Now Russia’s access to it is relatively minor compared to Ukraine.

    It would be akin to the US losing full maritime access to the Great Lakes!

  • Flo

    What makes anyone think this Russia is open to neogotiation?

  • NomNomNom

    Neither the Ukraine nor Georgia meet NATO’s requirements for entry. The other NATO members have rightfully flatly rejected their acceptance as part of the military pact. The US’s only interest is in using these nations as military bases and shipping/routing centers for BP’s pipelines carrying muslim gas: which might enrich their corrupt governments but makes the ordinary citizens sitting ducks for terrorist attacks on the pipelines and the US military their armies’ trainer, supplier, and minimally, backup. No freaking thx.
    Let Russia have it or let Europe deal with it! The US doesn’t need to be the world’s cop, especially for the interests of muslim nations.

  • Hot Librarian

    Russia pipes natural gas to Europe. R u talking gasoline or natgas from ME?