Myths of Mumbai and Other Bogus Terrorist Nonsense
By Larry Johnson on December 7, 2008 at 10:27 PM in Current Affairs
(bumped up by nasuS)
Did you know that only ten guys caused the mayhem two weeks ago in Mumbai? That’s the party line and the media, for the most part, appears content to parrot this without questioning or challenging some of the logical inconsistencies. Let’s follow the chronology of the attack and do some basic math (chronology drawn from CBS, the Mirror, BBC and India Times):
Ajmal Amir Kasav, said a former soldier, Abdul Rahman, known as Chacha (uncle), had trained them. “He said the first phase was hard physical training followed by three months of running up to 15 kilometres a day,” police told the Times of India. The rest included arms and ammunition training, the sources said. After the year’s training the group was sent to Mumbai for “a short internship”, when they did reconnaissance of the city. The next three months were devoted to marine training including swimming, surfing, diving and sailing.
It appears the training took place in Pakistan, probably near Karachi. Why? This was first and foremost a maritime operation. You don’t just take some guy off the street and stick him on an ocean going boat. Most folks who go out on the ocean their first time on a small boat get sea sick. The folks involved in this attack had been trained and seasoned to deal with floating on the ocean.
The so-called “internship” in Mumbai also is important to note. You must know a city in order to navigate your way from point A to point B, especially at night.
Kasav claims there were 24 trainees. That sounds right. You plan anticipating that some will drop out because they can’t meet the training objectives or become sick or are injured. What we are not told is who was doing the training. I believe there were at least 5 trainers, may be more. This does not include support staff (where did these trainees sleep, shower and eat?). I doubt they were staying at a Holiday Inn Express.
22 November
Kasav had said the group of 10 left Pakistan’s port city of Karachi in a single boat, according to the Mumbai Mirror. gunmen who attacked Mumbai set out by boat from the Pakistani port of Karachi, then later hijacked an Indian fishing trawler that carried them toward this financial capital on their suicide mission, a top police official said Tuesday. According to the account of Kasab’s interrogation, the terrorists were trained over five months in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, then had a month off before the attacks.
Kasab and the nine other terrorists, who communicated using BlackBerry mobiles, began their journey to Mumbai on a merchant vessel owned by Mumbai mobster Dawood Ibrahim. Ibrahim is on Forbes’ list of the 10 most wanted criminals and is believed to hiding out in Karachi, Pakistan.
For the sake of argument we will assume that 10 guys left Karachi. We still do not know if Kasav and his bodies went to the port in Karachi and boarded a ship at dock or if they got on small boats and traveled out of the harbor and rendezvoused with a mother ship. The mother ship probably has a crew of at least five if not more. In addition the boat is carrying assault rifles, ammunition, pistols, grenades, back packs, and two rubber zodiacs.
23 November
Once on board, each terrorist Each was given six or seven 50-bullet magazines, eight hand grenades, an AK-57 rifle and an automatic loading revolver.
Kasab told police that the group then hijacked a fishing trawler near the maritime boundary between Pakistan and India.
Four of its crew are missing while the fifth has been found dead, apparently beheaded.
On November 23, about 500km from Mumbai, the insurgents were intercepted by two coastguard officers. The group hoisted a white flag and allowed the men to board their boat.
According to Kasab, one of the militants then attacked one of the officers, slitting his throat and throwing him overboard. The other man was forced to help the group reach their destination before being executed near Mumbai.
So why do you hijack an Indian fishing vessel if you are already on a perfectly good boat? Only one reason, the boat you are on has a Pakistani flag and the boat itself probably belongs to Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence agency or folks linked to it.
Let’s also remember that if you hijack another boat you will need a crew for that boat as well. I believe that the original mother ship may have had at least a 10 man crew.
What are we to make of the murder of the two Indian Coast Guard? Is it likely that India patrols its coast with two man teams? What did they do with the Indian Coast Guard boat? I have not seen explanation so far (if you have, please let me know). This encounter apparently took place just off the coast near Mangrol, India.
26 November Wednesday
According to one version of Kasav’s confession, once the hijacked Indian trawler arrived just offshore from Mumbai, three speedboats came out and docked with the ship. Who was driving those boats? And why did they hook up with the trawler? Kasav also claims that the ten men on the trawler climbed into two zodiacs (rubber boats with outboard engines) and made their way to shore. They apparently made land somewhere between noon and 9 pm. The current account of the attack asks us to believe they had no contacts waiting for them on shore, no transportation lined up, and that they were just going to wing it.
Leopold Café: 9.15 pm
Five terrorists armed with AK-47 rifles barge into the cafe, which is popular with tourists, and start firing at diners and throwing grenades. Gunmen storm the Cafe Leopold and open fire on diners, causing numerous casualities.
Cama and Albless Hospital: 9:20 pm
Gunmen raid the Cama and Albless Hospital, shooting indiscriminately. One attacker is captured here.
Nariman House, Colaba: 9.20 pm
Two men on a scooter throw a grenade at a petrol station close to the Bootleggers pub, a nightspot popular with backpackers, damaging the facade but missing the pumps. They then run into the Nariman House business and residential complex. Police surround the complex, which houses the Jewish Chabad Lubavitch outreach centre. The terrorists killed six people and taking a number of hostages, thought to include a rabbi and his family.
CST Railway Station: 9.24 pm
start shooting at the ticket reservation counter of the station. A number of people are believed to have been killed and dozens wounded in this attack. The terrorists then ran out of the station. Shooting starts at the Chhatrapati Shivaji railway station when at least two gunmen storm the crowded terminal, firing indiscriminately. Many of the deaths and injuries occurred in this attack. 10.30 Firing near Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus. Suspected terrorists hijack a police jeep near Metro Cinema. Shooting starts at Chhatrapati Shivaji rail station, one of the world’s busiest, handling thousands of passengers each day.
Taj Mahal Palace Hotel: 9.30pm
At least seven gunmen enter the lobby of the Taj Mahal Palace hotel, which contans about 2000 people and staff, and begin firing. They were reportedly looking for British and American nationals and took up to 100 hostages.
A massive fire broke out at the hotel which firefighters were still battling the next morning. At least two terrorists are thought to have been killed in the hotel. Hermant Kerkare, chief of the police anti-terrorist squad was killed during the operation to retake the hotel.
Hotel Trident Oberoi: 10:20 pm
Firing near Hotel Trident – another five-star hotel – barely a kilometre away. Gunmen storm the Oberoi-Trident hotel, where about 380 people are staying.
Times of India: 10:50 pm
Gunfire reported at Times of India offices.
Vidhan Sabha, the legislative assembly: 12:10 am
Just after midnight gunman attack the Vidhan Sabha, the legislative assembly, the lower house of state legislature in India.
There is no consensus yet as far as what happened when. Check out the interactive map put up by the Guardian: (click here).
You get a different set of facts at the NY Times interactive map:
At least two cabs were used to haul the attackers to various sites in Mumbai. Someone tossed a handgrenade in each. But the numbers don’t add up:
At least two (2) shooters up north at the Cama and Albless Hospital at 9:20 pm. One of the shooters reportedly captured there.
Two (2) shooters hit the train station four minutes after the shooting starts at the hotel. Appears to be different shooters.
Two (2) shooters hit the area around the Nariman house at 9:20 pm.
Five (5) shooters hit Cafe Leopold at 9:15 pm. They move on to the Taj Mahal hotel at 9:30 pm. But witnesses claim there are seven (7) shooters at the Taj.
So we are up to at least 11 shooters and perhaps 13 and we have not yet accounted for who hit the Oberoi Hotel.
The training in marksmanship and explosives was rudimentary. No one was wearing a suicide explosive belt. As I have noted before their skill as shooters also was not great (thank God or Allah, your choice). The attackers learned the point and spray method of shooting, which is imprecise and not terribly effective. Each man had 400 bullets more or less, which sounds like a lot. But if you are firing on automatic, you will zip through a clip (they reportedly had clips aka magazines that would hold 50 bullets) in short order.
My initial impression that the Government of India and their police SWAT teams (NSG) did a good job of managing an almost impossible situation was wrong. They were overwhelmed and had a very difficult time organizing their counter response. The attackers were not terribly skilled in fighting from fixed positions inside the hotels. This was not a death blow to India by any means. It did provoke a level of rage not elicited in previous terrorist attacks.
I am still of the opinion that while the people involved in this operation had been preparing for some time, this attack was probably launched as a reaction to the recent actions of Pakistan’s President Zardari, who was vowing no first strike against India and to dismantle the political wing of the ISI. There are elements in Pakistan that do not want peace with India.
Beyond the 11 to 15 men involved in the attack, there were at least that many involved in providing logistical and training support. I believe those links certainly are based in Pakistan.
I hope we all appreciated the irony of Secretary of State Rice asking the Indians not to attack sites in Pakistan linked to the people responsible for the attacks in Mumbai. After 9-11 we had no hesitation whatsoever about hitting Afghanistan. Here we are again telling other countries not to do what we do.
On the other hand, we need to find a way to assist President Zardari who appears to be genuine in his desire to root out terrorist cells and infrastructure in Pakistan. That is a tough task that Bush Administration has failed to tackle successfully. Obama and his team have a chance to make their mark.
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