Replacing Hillary New York Style

With the selection of Senator Hillary Clinton to become Secretary of State comes another interesting parlor game. Who replaces Hillary – after all this is New York so why should anything here be that simple. While there are two other Senators that are being replaced in January – Joe Biden and Barack Obama – there is not much talk or speculation we read about involving those selections. Instead New York is the political version of “American Idol” With far more sidebars than ever appeared on Page Six.

So far there have been as many names mentioned to succeed Hillary as horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby.

To understand this parlor game it is worthwhile starting at the beginning – with Hillary of course. It was in November 1998 – just a few days after Charles Schumer was certified as the new Senator of New York replacing Al D’Amato – that Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan announced that he would not seek re-election in 2000.

As soon as that announcement hit the airwaves the starting gate opened and a throng of candidates were unloaded on New Yorkers. Initially the front runner was New York State Comptroller Carl McCall. Right behind him was environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., HUD Secretary Andrew Cuomo, Congresswomen Carolyn Maloney and Nita Lowey, and perennial candidate Mark Green. There were even rumblings of JFK Jr. jumping in.

But within a month of Moynihan’s announcement came the rumors of someone in the White House having interest in running for that seat. Hillary Clinton began meeting with different Democratic leaders in New York State, particularly upstate, and taking her time about to consider the merits of running or not. She was being encouraged by Representative Charlie Rangel and by Patrick Moynihan himself.

Soon after Hillary began meeting leaders, the oceans began to part. Robert Kennedy Jr. decided he wanted to focus on his young family more and backed out. That was followed by Andrew Cuomo who said he wanted to support his friend Al Gore in his bid for President. At the end of 1998 Comptroller Carl McCall, who had been ahead in the polls, decided not to seek that office after a new poll showed that Hillary would beat him if the primary was held that day. Nita Lowey said that she would only run if Hillary did not run. By the time Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy in February 2000 there were no Democratic candidates left in the field other than her. Walking through canyon of parted waters was Hillary Clinton.

That is not the norm for how New Yorkers elect their Senators but we do tend to have unusual situations through the years.

Hillary’s Clinton’s election became another chapter in what has been a tradition for New York in their selection of U.S. Senators. It’s a tradition that has simply occurred and not by any design. Since World War II New York has always had one U.S. Senator who was a “pothole” Senator – someone focused on the problems and needs of New Yorkers. Among that group were Irving Ives, Kenneth Keating, Al D’Amato, and now Charles Schumer.

The other Senator from New York were people who dealt with more national or global issues. They were regarded as great “thinkers.” Among this group were Herbert Lehman, Robert F. Kennedy, Jacob Javitz, James Buckley, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and now Hillary Clinton.

That gives some history. Now for the game.

When Hillary was announced to be the new Secretary of State once again the starting gate opened and out came a wide array of candidates – some well known and some not. But only one man will be making this call.

The man making the call – and it is entirely up to him and no one else – is David Paterson the current Governor of New York. Paterson was elected to be Lieutenant Governor to Governor Elliot Spitzer in 2006. When “the steamroller” (it is how Spitzer referred to himself when he first came to office) was forced to resign Paterson took over the job.

Paterson has been very well received by New Yorkers and elected officials from both parties. He is an African American who is also legally blind. He is smart, witty, and very engaging. But Paterson has not been elected as Governor and therefore does not have an established voter base like most incumbents. Also as Governor he is now facing serious financial problems in New York and may need to raise taxes, which is not what a Governor ever wants to see during their re-election bid.

Paterson’s re-election is in 2010, which is also the year for Senator Charles Schumer’s re-election and is also the year for a special election for the person Paterson is about to appoint to replace Hillary Clinton as Senator. In addition that selection will also have to have a re-election just two years later in 2012.

As far as credentials a source said Paterson indicated that: “ . . . . the governor would like someone from upstate – every statewide elected official is from downstate – who is a woman and preferably Hispanic.”

Other democratic leaders have been weighing in and providing advice and recommendations to Paterson. One such voice that counts significantly is Senator Charles Schumer who wants to have a junior Senator who will be a junior Senator. A prominent Democrat who has known Schumer for 10 years said,”Chuck wants the least amount of competition. He’s been living with a junior senator who has overshadowed him for the past eight years.” Of course if Paterson listened to him then we would have two Senator Potholes instead of one for the first time since World War II.

The horses in the field number 20 and any one of them may be selected. A Marist Poll was conducted which had Andrew Cuomo well ahead of the others as the most likely person chosen to fulfill Hillary’s Clinton’s term in office. Cuomo had 43% with 42% being unsure.

Despite the guidelines coming from Paterson’s office and the desire of Chuck Schumer, Cuomo is from a popular family in New York and has done a good job as the N.Y.S. Attorney General. As a member of Bill Clinton’s cabinet Cuomo has the experience in D.C. politics. While from New York City he does have strong upstate support and therefore an established statewide base of support.

However, Cuomo is not favored by Chuck Schumer who is tired of being overshadowed by a more popular national figure. “The one person who Schumer doesn’t want . . . is New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who would be at least as aggressive politically . . . . as Schumer himself.”

In the case of Cuomo, Schumer’s opinion may not matter because there has also been talk that he would challenge Paterson for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2010 and Cuomo’s appointment to Senator would negate that challenge.

Paterson has already complemented Cuomo on his credentials for the job.

Behind Cuomo are a long list of candidates but among the more prominent and interesting are:

Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi has been a young charismatic politician who took on the Nassau County Republican establishment by being fiscally conservative and socially moderate. Paterson does have a long standing relationship with Suozzi’s senior advisor Bill Cunningham.

Congresswoman Nydia Velázquez whose district includes parts of New York City was the first Puerto Rican woman Congressional representative. She is also a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton. For Paterson “Velázquez offers the tantalizing possibility of killing two political birds with one stone by appealing to Hispanics and women – both critical voting blocs.”

Congresswoman Kirsten E. Gillibrand does represent 10 counties in upstate New York which is critical for Paterson in his re-election. She was a corporate attorney and is regarded as the star in a class of new upstate Dems, who romped to her second term, is close to the Clinton camp and impressed with her savvy and policy chops. But going from Rookie of the Year to the Senate?

Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney is a feminist who has a close relationship with Senator Chuck Schumer and has received the support from the National Organization for Women and the Feminist Majority who described Ms. Maloney as “a prolific legislator who is an expert on financial, security, and economic issues, as well as women’s issues.”

Mayor Byron W. Brown of Buffalo who is a popular African American from upstate New York but not known downstate at all. But observers say it would be a tough choice for Paterson to name a black successor to Clinton when the governor and likely the state Senate majority leader will be African Americans.

New York City Council President Christine Quinn is popular in New York City but a relative unknown upstate. She is the first openly gay person to be NYC Council President. While Quinn may have a relationship with Clinton, she isn’t all that close to Paterson, who is the man who’ll hold most of the cards.

Attorney Leecia Eve was a senior policy advisor to Senator Hillary Clinton who is from Buffalo and ran for Lieutenant Governor in 2006 with the support of Congressman Charlie Rangel and has Rangel’s support now.

Other candidates mentioned are:
Congressman Jerrold Nadler of New York City
Congressman Greg Meeks of New York City
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. the respected environmentalist.
New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson
Congressman Anthony Weiner of New York City
Congressman Joe Crowley of New York City
Congressman Steve Israel of Long Island
Congressman Brian Higgins
Congressman Jose Serrano
Former N.Y.S. Comptroller Carl McCall
and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión Jr.

Finally there is one more candidate that surfaced recently after not being offered the position of U.N. Ambassador in the Obama Cabinet. Caroline Kennedy recently met with Governor Paterson to discuss her interest replacing Senator Clinton.

Ted Kennedy has been working to prop up Caroline. He let Paterson know that Caroline has contacts and family connections that would mean legislation affecting New York would receive prompt attention, family sources said. The Kennedy family still represent the most powerful Democratic fundraising machine nationally and in New York State.

Remember that it was Caroline and Ted who were the first major names to come out and support Obama during the primaries and has been close with him in the Senate.

However a Paterson-administration source said that because of Caroline’s limited political experience, she is “barely in the game.”

But the appointment of Caroline Kennedy over Andrew Cuomo would have greater implications for all concerned, because this is not simply a political rivalry.

At one time Robert Kennedy Jr. and Andrew Cuomo were best of friends. In fact in 1990 Cuomo married Bobby’s sister Kerry Kennedy. Cuomo and Kennedy and three children in a “power” marriage of two well known Democratic families. The marriage ended in 2003 in a very public and bitter divorce. Kerry was having an adulterous affair with another Kennedy friend Bruce Colley. Bobby accused Cuomo of feeding stories to the press on his wife’s adulterous affair and the two went from being friends to having bad blood.

As Kerry Kennedy’s cousin, it is speculated that Caroline’s bid for the Senate seat could spark even more bad blood.

“It’s awkward,” said one well-known Democrat. “If she’s serious, there could be a serious behind-the-scenes war with lots of personal baggage behind it.” “Andrew double-crossed my sister,” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was once quoted as saying.

If Caroline is selected over Andrew it seems certain that there will be a next chapter for Andrew Cuomo which could make 2010 quite interesting for Caroline’s or for Paterson’s re-election.

Getting back to the judge in this case, the decision that David Paterson makes for Hillary Clinton’s replacement could affect his own political future which should be of paramount importance to the Governor.

Wendy Schiller, a former aide to Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, wrote an opinion piece in Newsday that simply recommended to Governor Paterson to “appoint someone who has a proven record with the voters and who can show that he or she is willing and capable of being an effective voice for them.” With Upstate and Downstate New York being so different as Schiller points out, and with New York State having so many diverse groups of people this will not be an easy task or one that will satisfy all parties.

So there are four issues that Paterson will need to use as his criteria:

1. Can this person get re-elected at the same time Paterson is running for re-election?
2. Will this person represent a key voting block for Paterson in his re-election?
3. Will this person be acceptable to Paterson’s supporters and constituents?
4. Will this person lift up or drag down the rest of the Democratic ticket in 2010?

The horses in this race are as diverse as the State Paterson governs and none will truly be fully acceptable. Well at least none in the race so far. There is one possibility that could satisfy if not mollify all parties. The other Clinton.