“Prediction Validated – China and the Dollar” The National Interest
By Larry Johnson on September 7, 2007 at 5:04 PM in Current Affairs
[Nick Gvosdev of the National Interest posted the following yesterday. While war with Iran is still over the horizon, the potential vulnerability of the United States is real and current.]
“Last year, in laying out various scenarios for how the United States might choose to confront Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons program (“Contemplating the Ifs”, The National Interest, Summer 2006), W. Patrick Lang and Larry C. Johnson noted that U.S. planners have to consider factors far beyond developments in the Persian Gulf.
One point they raised:
[China] hold[s] a substantial amount of U.S. debt. What happens if they decide to find some other currency to hold instead of the dollar? . . . Although the dollar traditionally has been the currency people seek during a crisis, the growing imbalance with China creates new dynamics that could convince the Chinese that holding dollars no longer made economic sense. Under such a scenario, dumping dollars on the international market would trigger an inflationary spiral in the United States.
The scenario of an inflationary spike triggered by China’s dumping of dollars may strike some as fanciful. The point for U.S. planners and policymakers, though, is to recognize that war brings unintended consequences that go well beyond the tactical realities on the ground where the fighting occurs.
In other words, the United States needs to consider what happens if China uses its financial leverage to affect U.S. freedom of action.
The Daily Telegraph is now reporting:
A sharp drop in foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last five weeks has raised concerns that China is quietly withdrawing its funds from the United States, leaving the dollar increasingly vulnerable. . . .
David Powell, an economist at IDEAglobal in New York, pointed the finger at Beijing as the main suspect in the sudden bond flight this summer.
In a client note entitled “Has China started to dump US Treasuries?”, he said the sales appear to coincide with early moves by Beijing to launch its new $300bn sovereign wealth fund.
The scheme is part of the government’s plan to diversify it $1,340bn reserves from bonds (mostly in the US) to a broader portfolio of investments and a better yield.” TNI
http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=15458
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