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The Limits of the Surge

By Larry Johnson on October 25, 2007 at 11:36 AM in Current Affairs

There is some undeniable good news out of Iraq–the number of U.S. combat fatalities has dropped by at least 50% of the average monthly rate for the last year. Still, U.S. troops are being killed and wounded on a daily basis. Some days are worse than others. Here is the latest as of Wednesday, 24 October:

10/24/07 MNF: One MNC-I Soldier attacked, five wounded

10/24/07 MNF: Coalition Forces attacked (Tikrit)

But the numbers are misleading and other signs continue to point in the wrong direction.

If the drop in U.S. combat deaths was a consequence of less fighting in Iraq in general then a celebration would be in order. But that is not the case. It appears that there has been a shift in U.S. tactics–fewer ground patrols and more air strikes (see Juan Cole’s commentary) . But it also appears that some of the Iraqi insurgent groups have opted to lay low rather than seek a head on confrontation. The real measure of whether the U.S. surge is working remains Iraqi politics; and on that front the news is not good.

Declining violence in Baghdad, for example, hides the darker news that we are witnessing the peace of the graveyard. The “improved security” is a by product of successful ethnic cleansing. The purge of Sunnis from mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhoods continues virtually unabated. Moqtada Al Sadr’s militia, working in tandem with Iraqi police, are expelling Sunnis from their homes. The following AP story tries to polish the turd but cannot hide the fact that the beat goes on:

10/25/07 AP: Baghdad Sunni teacher shot dead

Then there is the “other” political problem–the Shia remain in control of the key government ministries and are extending their control in that arena as well. We have seen no progress in reconciling the sectarian rift in Iraq. The only thing the Iraqi legislators are doing effectively is raiding the Iraqi police for their own personal security details. Imagine what the United States would look like if our Senators and Representatives could commandeer Federal and State police for their own personal body guards. Imagine that each member of Congress had a security detail of 50 to 60 guys.

Well, you don’t have to imagine that in Iraq. It is the reality. This will be Iraq’s version of a Blackwater scandal–security forces out of control serving the interests of legislative war lords. It is but one other sign that Iraq is devolving into a feudal rather than federal system.

And just when we thought we were turning a corner on the road to a new Iraqi democracy, we learn that the Kurds in the north are sponsoring terrorism. The Kongra Gel (formerly known as the PKK aka Kurdish Workers Party) is itself surging and attacking police and civilians in Turkey. Turkey, taking a page from the George Bush policy book of combating terrorism, has mobilized its Army and Air Force and has commenced cross border retaliatory strikes.

These events are adding to the internal tensions splitting what passes for an Iraqi Government. Most Shia and Sunnis Arabs agree with the Turks while conceding that Iraq lacks the means and forces to do anything meaningful against the PKK. They are willing to let the Turks clean out the PKK (and they hope that some of the regular Kurds get bombed in the process). Kurdish leaders, however, are not too eager to turn their backs on friends and relatives caught up in the PKK crusade to establish a Kurdish presence in souther Turkey.

So before you open that celebratory bottle of champagne to toast the success of the U.S. surge, some caution is in order. The political and military situation in Iraq remains a mess and there are no substantive signs that milestones are being reached and peace is at hand.

  • GSD

    Larry, is there any truth to the rumor that the international supply of Turd Polish is reaching record lows after 7 years of overuse by the Bush Administration?

    I’m buying some shares as we speak.

    -GSD

  • http://cujo359.blogspot.com Cujo359

    On the simplest measure I can think of, which is whether we’ve achieved our objectives, the surge has been a failure.

    • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

      What was our objective again, I forget?

      • misfiteye

        The objective was to funnel as much of the taxpayers money as possible into the pockets of the war profiteers.

        “Mission accomplished.”

    • http://cujo359.blogspot.com Cujo359

      The ostensible objective was to bring enough stability to the country so that the political process could reach a solution. Iraq’s politicians haven’t been doing that, and at least from my perspective don’t appear to even be trying.

      • Thinker

        Not from my memory Cujo. And that was done, hence the “end” of the war. Funny how many peeps can be killed after a war is done.

        The objective was to claim some as it turns out were ficticious weapons of mass destruction.

        Some negative people are saying that the partizan US [hiding behind the 'coalition of the willing'] invasion has thrown Iraq into full scale civil war.

        Personally, I think the objectives are utterly clear – push Iraq into civil war with the idea of establishing a clear winner, Sunni or Shia doesn’t matter. US goes in an cordons off the assets until the dust settles and then it gives them to the rightful (sic) owner, subject to the corporate agreement ;)

        War’s a racket, eh?

        • http://cujo359.blogspot.com Cujo359

          You’re refering to the objectives of the war, Thinker. I’m refering to the stated objective of the “surge”. I stated that the surge was a failure, not the war (although I agree with that premise, also).

  • Bill Keyes

    Yes I suppose that is good news for us, but it would hardly seem good news for the most Iraqis, who are desperately just trying to survive.

    Lets talk about compassion for people who are suffering for a moment.

    We as a nation are full of compassionate people and when any kind of disaster happens whether by nature or by accident, the American people rise to the occasion. Notice I said American people not American governments.

    The ongoing fire disaster in SOCAL is a perfect example. When their fellow Americans are suffering, compassionate Americans ask not what their county is going to do, they do not question how rich those are who are suffering, they do not check their race, religion or political affiliation, they roll up their sleeves and jump in to volunteer and if they can’t volunteer, they also donate their hard earned money.

    However when the suffering is in another country things change. Some how others suffering becomes diminished when is it far away such as in Darfur. Even though as a country we give aid to others countries in need and compassionate Americans give to the Red Cross, etc, we probably think that the citizens and governments of those other countries should take the lead.

    This is for the most part okay as even though we are the richest country in the world we can’t solve all the world’s problems and shouldn’t except the one’s or one which we are responsible for.

    That one problem of course is the mess in Iraq.

    I think of Riverbend and her family in Syria who are refugees and ask how compassionate are the Syrian people?? Well a lot more compassionate then we are. How many Iraqi refugees have we helped relocate? The last time I heard it was just a few thousand? How many Iraqi refugees has Syria let in 1.5 million.

    Do the Syrians or any other countries have an obligation to take in Iraqi refugees? No then why do they? Maybe because they have compassion for people in need?

    Who does have an obligation to help the Iraqi refugees?

    We do! Not only do we have an obligation to help the Iraqi refugees but we have an obligation to get the hell out of their country and and instead of spending millions on war armaments we should be spending millions on trying to put their country back the way it was before our immoral and illegal invasion and occupation.

    While I admire the compassionate Americans who are unselfishly coming to the aid of their fellow suffering Americans in SOCAL, I am ashamed of and condemn all those Americans who supported the immoral and illegal invasion of Iraq especially those who still do and have turned a blind eye to the suffering of the Iraqi people which we and only we are responsible for.

    Further more I am livid with rage at those leaders of our country who will pander on TV about the suffering of those in SOCAL yet go back to their comfortable lives and refuse to do anything about their responsibility to the suffering and plight of the Iraqi people.

    Our leaders actions both Republican and Democrat are treasonous, shameful,
    irresponsible concerning the mess in Irag that we and we alone created and are responsible for.

    Today in the eyes of the world I am ashamed to admit that I am an American, are you??

    • PrchrLady

      Very well said, Bill, and many thaks for saying it so well. I am not ashamed to admit that I am an American, so much as I am ashamed that my government, country, has been taken over by a group of rogues and minions. I am sick to death of being called naive for so long for holding out the belief that our government could or would change the direction this coup has taken us… I am very sick at heart these days for the pain and suffering that has been caused so many people, good people, just like you and I, so very much pain. My words cannot begin to explain how very sad a day this is when so many turn a blind eye and go on about their way.

      The blood of not only the Iraqi people, and indeed all the saints is truly on the hands of this evil cabal. Condi is just another of satan’s whores. She does not care. She does not have a soul…

      • Bill Keyes

        Thanks Prchlady,

        You’re right, I should have said I am proud to be an American, but ashamed of my government.

        • chris

          why “should” you have said that? I never got that. I’m not a “proud American”. I’m just someone out here who works and does my thing. I didn’t ask to be an “American” and the more I realize how this 500yr old experiment in European Expansion has gone…the less tasty it sounds.

          My arrival in this hemisphere is just how it is, but again, my parents mated here, and here I am. My three European root countries don’t need me back but thats never been the point.

          I will say this though, each time a rightwing idiot pops off, “well then git outta hea’” at me or others….I suddenly remember that I was born here, raised here, and damnit, its my home for now. I feel very much a lively citizen all the time.

          I have always accepted the offer of, “well let me by you a one way ticket to Iran, buddy!”. But either they are broke, or don’t mean it. I’ll go study the tombak drums or Sufi poetry.

          I’m not ashamed of my government, I’m ashamed of our citizens for letting the government become “us” vs “them” under Rightwing mesmerizing. Thomas Paine clearly stated that government was horrid. We don’t really want to have a government because it is the constant admission of our vices and inability to deal with them. But the cynicism continues to be the shackles citizens wear as they trance away to work and play.

          preach on.

      • http://www.food4humanity.org hoosierhoops

        nice to see you post again preacherlady..
        Although your heart may feel sick..remember hope springs eternal..we’ll get our gov’t back again..
        crap..we have to wait a year..but everything will be just fine..
        best wishes
        the hoopster

    • Shirin

      Bill, it is not when the suffering is in another country that things change. Look at how generously Americans helped the victims of the Tsunami that hit Thailand and Sri Lanka (even though the Bush regime was very sparing its assistance, actually giving less than some far poorer countries). And although the support for Darfur is not as widespread, look at the number of Americans who are deeply dedicated to that cause, despite the fact that catastrophe-wise, Iraq dwarfs it completely. You know, that people actually have shown up at rallies and marches opposing the ongoing aggression against Iraq with signs saying things like “What about Darfur” – something I find very offensive as I would if people showed up and Darfur events with signs saying “What about Iraq”, which would in fact make more sense.

      I think it is less what happens in the U.S versus what happens abroad than it is that the Iraq disaster is not only a man-made as opposed to natural one, but it is a catastrophe caused directly and entirely by the United States that causes most Americans to completely ignore the incomprehensibly enormous humanitarian catastrophe that their government and their government’s troops have perpetrated and continue to perpetrate.

    • Shirin

      “How many Iraqi refugees have we helped relocate?”

      Thank you for your sentiments, Bill. And let us be clear that relocation for Iraqis is not the right answer, nor is it what the majority of Iraqi refugees want. Refugees have a right to return to their country, and that is also in the best interest of the country. Relocating them robs them of their rightful place, and robs their country of a vital human resource.

      “How many Iraqi refugees has Syria let in 1.5 million.”

      Syria, a poor country with many problems of its own, has been the most generous of all the countries to Iraqi refugees, but even Syria has its limit, and has begun to tighten restrictions.

      “Not only do we have an obligation to help the Iraqi refugees but we have an obligation to get the hell out of their country and and instead of spending millions on war armaments we should be spending millions on trying to put their country back the way it was before our immoral and illegal invasion and occupation.”

      First, let’s be accurate and call that hundreds of billions. :) And second, let us be clear about one thing. Yes, the United States has the obligations you enumerated, and thank you for that. And the tens – no, hundreds – of billions that you should be spending should not be for you to try to put the country back as it was, but for the Iraqis to rebuild the country as they choose to, and to do so without your “advice” or interference. In other words, Bill, the United States owes hundreds of billions to Iraq, which should not take the form or aid to Iraq, but should be paid in the form of reparations that are determined, enforced, and administered by a neutral third party. Iraqis should be in the driver’s seat in deciding exactly how those funds are to be used, and what the priories are for their use.

      • Bill Keyes

        Shirin,

        You said..

        “..the United States owes hundreds of billions to Iraq, which should not take the form or aid to Iraq, but should be paid in the form of reparations that are determined, enforced, and administered by a neutral third party. Iraqis should be in the driver’s seat in deciding exactly how those funds are to be used, and what the priories are for their use.”

        I agree with you and thank you for pointing this out so succinctly. In fact I have often thought about this before.

        I naively imagined a day when the President of our country on behalf of the so called “coalition” would announce that we were withdrawing all our troops, our civilian contractors and everyone else who was associated with the “occupation” ,except various humanitarian groups, as soon as possible.

        He or she would further publicly apologize first to the Iraqi people and then the rest of the world for what we have done.

        Then lastly he or she would announce that the US alone, as you said would pay monies, ” in the form of reparations that are determined, enforced, and administered by a neutral third party,(and that) Iraqis should be in the driver’s seat in deciding exactly how those funds are to be used, and what the priories are for their use.”

        Sadly though, I do not think this will ever happen, because although you and I believe along with lots of other Americans who see this invasion for what it was, what is has become and looks like it will continue to be, are powerless to change anything.

        Why?

        Because the people who we elected who have the power to change anything are arrogant, self serving, and treasonous cowards. They hide behind rhetoric and bullshit and spend countless hours blaming everyone except themselves. They will not do the “right thing” which is stand up, admit their mistakes and then fall on their swords.

        Where will we find new leaders who will do the “right thing”? I don’t know, I don’t if there are any. (Maybe Gindy Sheehan, Ron Paul, or Valerie Plame Wilson?)

        However I believe that if we as Americans, most of who believe our country should be the leading shining light in the fight for all the “right things” the founding fathers believed in, do not wake up and realize that we are on a path of destruction, then we will continue down that path of destruction, which will eventually lead not only to the destruction of the world as we know it, but the destruction of mankind itself.

  • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

    Bush has largely ignored the Kurds and Turkey. Rice’s recent efforts to hold the Turks back were pathetic. Because they have no concept of diplomacy, unless it’s to drop bombs. And Bush has offered to do that, on our soon-to-be former allies the Kurds.

    Isn’t it nice, too, the way US airstrikes have increased fivefold in Iraq and almost doubled in Afghanistan? [Spreading democracy by liberating Iraqis and Afghanis from their bodies.] The increased airstrikes may be part of why US troop casualties are down.

    While in Pakistan, Bush’s hopes for a Bhutto/Musharraf government are failing as well. Who could’ve foreseen that?

    Bush may get his Neocon wish for WWIII.
    ============================

    What’s going on with the Bushie plan to load B-2s with so-called bunker busters, which may head to Iran? Is this in any way related the nuke mistake earlier?

    • ybnormal

      The MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator)
      is not reported to be the same thing as in the recent ‘lost nuke’ story.
      A couple more details in the ABC story
      http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3771522&page=1

      the military’s largest conventional bomb

      (my bold)
      and

      It is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding.

      then, said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org to ABC,

      You’d use it on Natanz

      which from past reading I gather is the uranium enrichment facility

      I can’t find any reporting that tells whether the facility is less than or greater than 200 feet underground, but if it’s less than 200 feet, wouldn’t we expect a lot of nuclear pollution from the damaged nuclear facility? This would seem to make the fact of the bomb being of conventional explosives a semi moot point.

      Another thing; the reporting says

      And you’d use it on a stealth bomber because you want it to be a surprise

      Well, I’m reading about it in the public media, and I’m not surprised. So the only real surprise might be not if, but when.

    • ybnormal

      BTW correct if I’m wrong, but it’s probably not worth holding our breath waiting for a lot of disclosure on deployment of MOP. If stories are leaked, then you have to consider Putin’s past words, saying in effect, in general terms, ‘when information is leaked, one can say that it is done especially’; or words to that effect he said in some other situation in the last couple of years.

      So if we hear a leaked story about deployment, is it an intentional scare tactic, or an unintentional leak? We probably won’t know for sure until AFTER deployment, rather than BEFORE.

  • mudkitty

    Buy oil now, before it’s too late. That’s the jst of it.

    • chris

      yeah, wouldn’t you hate to be the guy who piled up the “flowbee” hair cutting tools now that nobody will buy that crap? or the pet rock? or new coke?
      oil is as dead as the dinosaur its made from.

  • abiodun

    Are you not tired of hearing “we are a nation of compassionate people…”?
    We invaded a third world country; displaced over 2.5 million of its citizens; continously bomb them; continously vote more money for this debacle; saber-rattle on another third world country;etc.

    • Shirin

      Make that over four million (4.2 million internally and externally displaced persons according to an official UN report made several months ago), and you will be closer to reality.

  • Teaeopy

    I wonder how far a MOP, if dropped on a nuclear facility, could distribute radioactivity. It could be one dirty bomb, couldn’t it.

    • Teaeopy

      I meant to nest that under Leslie’s 12:57:53 comment.

  • ybnormal

    Some other B2 info, with or without a MOP.

    This thing is not quite as ‘stealthy’ as say for example, a fictional Star Trek Klingon Cloaking Device. On rare occasions, I’ve actually seen stealth planes flying over the Antelope Valley area of Southern CA. You can see them, and they do make noise.

    A friend I used to know who worked as part of a jet engine maintenence crew for GE told me these things use basically similar engines as commercial aircraft, but they’re encased inside of extra specially designed baffles to dampen much of the noise and reduce detectable heat radiation. I have no information on the percentage of absorption of radar waves in the plane’s coating, but I suppose it’s significant, though probably not 100%.

    • Teaeopy

      I don’t know the extent to which Iran’s radar can detect stealth aircraft. I suspect that the first sorties in an attack on Iran would try to take out radar facilities and surface-to-air weapons positions just in case they could be effective. Should that happen, I don’t know whether there would be enough time for much news to get out before the main attacks would begin. Can US air power now prepare the environment minutes ahead of rather than hours or days ahead of bombing runs?

    • Fred C. Dobbs

      A good rumor I heard back about a year after its Roll-Out was that, although the B-2 had a substantially reduced RADAR and heat signature on equipment with a frequency above 400 mHz through low microwaves (3 gHz), it showed up like a deer in the headlights with a mirror on its antlers on RADARs operating below 50 mHz or so.

      Now, those frequencies are positively 1940-ish, and it may well be that the designers thought that no credible enemy would uses RADAR equiment in that range.

      (Admittedly, my expertise is in Surface Search RADAR, but I talk to those guys…we all work for the same six companies).

      Also, it’s very hard to see or hear, with the unaided eye and ear, much of anything approaching you at low altitude at 400 MPH or above 30,000 feet AGL.

      The B-52 is still, “Whispering Death.” Seeing the Threat and Knocking the Threat Down are different problems.

      Or, as my grandpa told me when I was 14, “Wanting Some and Getting Some are two very different things!”

  • Mr.Murder

    US soldiers shy from battle in Iraq
    By Dahr Jamail

    WATERTOWN, New York – Iraq war veterans now stationed at a base here in upstate New York say that morale among US soldiers in the country is so poor, many are simply parking their Humvees and pretending to be on patrol, a practice dubbed “search and avoid” missions.

    Phil Aliff is an active duty soldier with the 10th Mountain Division stationed at Fort Drum. He served nearly one year in Iraq from August 2005 to July 2006, in the areas of Abu Ghraib and

    Fallujah, both west of Baghdad.

    “Morale was incredibly low,” said Aliff, adding that he joined the military because he was raised in a poor family by a single mother and had few other prospects. “Most men in my platoon in Iraq were just in from combat tours in Afghanistan.”

    According to Aliff, their mission was to help the Iraqi army “stand up” in the Abu Ghraib area of western Baghdad, but in fact his platoon was doing all the fighting without support from the Iraqis they were supposedly preparing to take control of the security situation.

    “I never heard of an Iraqi unit that was able to operate on their own,” said Aliff, who is now a member of the group Iraq Veterans Against the War (IVAW). “The only reason we were replaced by an Iraqi army unit was for publicity.”

    Aliff said he participated in roughly 300 patrols. “We were hit by so many roadside bombs we became incredibly demoralized, so we decided the only way we wouldn’t be blown up was to avoid driving around all the time.”

    “So we would go find an open field and park, and call our base every hour to tell them we were searching for weapons caches in the fields and doing weapons patrols and everything was going fine,” he said, adding, “All our enlisted people became very disenchanted with our chain of command.”

    Thus the numbers have decreased, word gets out along the fron tline.

    Wright added, “It was a common tactic, a lot of people did that. We’d just hang out, listen to music, smoke cigarettes, and pretend.” The 26-year-old medic complained that his unit did not have any armored Humvees during his time in Iraq, where he was stationed in Ramadi, capital of the volatile al-Anbar province.

    “We put sandbags on the floors of our vehicles, which had canvas doors,” said Wright, who was in Iraq from September 2003 until September 2004. “By the end of our tour, we were bolting any metal we could find to our Humvees. Everyone was doing this, and we didn’t get armored Humvees in country until after we left.”

    Other veterans, like 25-year-old Nathan Lewis, who was in Iraq for the invasion of March 2003 until June of that year while serving in the 214th field artillery brigade, complained of lack of training for what they were ordered to do, in addition to not having armored Humvees for their travels.

    “We never got training for a lot of the work we did,” he explained. “We had a white phosphorous mortar round that cooked off in the back of one of our trucks, because we loaded that with some other ammo, and we weren’t trained how to do it the right way.”

    The “search and avoid” missions appear to have been commonplace around much of Iraq for years now.

    Geoff Millard served nine years in the New York Army National Guard, and was in Iraq from October 2004 until October 2005 working for a general at a Tactical Operation Center.

    Millard, also a member of IVAW, said that part of his duties included reporting “significant actions”, or SIGACTS, which is how the US military describes an attack on their forces.

    “We had units that never called in SIGACTS,” Millard, who monitored highly volatile areas like Baquba, Tikrit and Samarra, told IPS. “When I was there two years ago, there were at least five companies that never had SIGACTS. I think ‘search and avoids’ have been going on there for a long time.”

    Told you before, of the Guard emmbers who drove out in my Nephew’s Company(up to a quarter who actually did) they had to “double up” so the CO (who never left his sandbagged bunker) could get his paperwork in on time.

    They quit driving escort empty tankers as well, the CO got some pretty good persuasion on that.

    One on Four refused to go at all, that number grew to almost half. That left the remaining ones time to double up their mileage and risk. That actually worked to their advantage, the library check-out card system for body armour was expedited due to a lack of participation; so it streamlined their ability to get in and out of hot spots on certain calls.

  • Mr.Murder

    PKK, much like Al Qaeida, got its start with USA support, to keep allies in line(then Turkey, bordering Russia) and to attack enemies(like we used Al Qaerida in Afghanistan, we used the PKK against Saddam).

    Peruse through sdome of the Contra archives, you’ll find weapons shipments and cash sent their way…

    • Cee

      PKK, MEK, anyone else?

  • Mr.Murder

    *apology for the typos…

  • ybnormal

    Larry, on a related topic, any news or updates about Glimmer of Hope for US Policy Towards Iraq and Iran, which you wrote about on 10-05-07?

    As always, your insight is valued, even if no one has given you any feedback.

  • Teaeopy

    It has become politically convenient for the Bush administration to emphasize results in fighting AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq) almost to the exclusion of mentioning the unresolved problems stated in LJ’s post. That emphasis plays into the “global war on terror” theme and the claim that we’re fighting them there so that we don’t have to fight them here.

    Any lull in action is likely to be an opportune time for armed factions to rest, recruit, resupply, and fortify, and to continue cleansing their turf. I hope the Iraqis do come up with something fair to all parties. A self-congratulatory Coalition and US Department of State can’t be much help, and right now suspense and all the jockeying for position don’t encourage hope.

    • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

      According to Fox News, al Qaeda is responsible for the California wildfires. Maybe this is what Glenn Beck meant when he said the forest fires were targeting people who hate America [see post below]…he meant al Qaeda is in California?

      Does that mean we’re winning GWOT?

      • Delia

        I guess it means somebody is getting desperate, all right.

      • ybnormal

        Keith Olberman reported on the ‘Al-Qaeda arson’ story last night, to set the record straight. Not only was the Al-Qaeda arson connection never factually established, the report is…get this…OVER FOUR YEARS OLD.

        Thank you Keith; and No thank you Fox.

        No wonder that in a poll I read a few years ago (which I’ve since lost track of, sorry), it was shown that a far greater percentage of Fox News viewers than average, believed the three major falsehoods about Iraq. 1. WMD were found 2. Collaborated with and/or supported Al-Qaeda 3. Responsible for 9/11. My memory is the poll was around ’04 or ’05.

  • justsomeone

    Previously Shirin has portrayed al Sadr as a “nationalist” & I’ve read in other sources that he has even offered protection to Christians etc. Here I’m being told his militia is responsible for ethnic cleansing. Bottom line: I’m not there/I don’t know. Very confusing p.r. The story line seems to change on a dime.

    • Shirin

      Justsomeone,

      We hear all kinds of things. We should be used to it by now, and very skeptical of what we hear.

      The other day someone showed me a story on an “Iraqi” website about some recent “clashes” in Basra in which the Mehdi Army was supposedly fighting with the forces of the Iraqi (make-believe) government. This story contained the astonishing claim that there were Irani Al Quds forces fighting with the Mehdi Army against the “government” forces.

      I can give you a virtually absolute guarantee you that this story was false. You see, IF there were any Al Quds forces in Basra – and there has been to date no evidence that there are Al Quds forces or any other Iranian forces ANYWHERE in Iraq – they would have been fighting on the side of the “government” forces against the Mehdi Army, and not vice versa. It is the American-installed Iraqi make-believe government that is in bed with Iran, not the Mehdi Army. It is Al Hakim and Al Maliki and their Badr Brigade who are best pals with Iran, not Muqtada Al Sadr. It is most assuredly NOT in Iran’s interest to support parties opposed to Al Hakim, Al Maliki, and their make-believe government. It is definitely in Iran’s interest to support Al Hakim, Al Maliki, and their make-believe government against the opposition, the most dangerous of whom is Muqtada Sadr.

      Oh yes, and it doesn’t take long to figure out that the “Iraqi” site that carried that story is a pro-American site, if not a straight up U.S. propaganda site. Unfortunately, it is in Arabic, so I cannot prove it to you, but the rhetoric, which includes praise and effusive expressions of gratitude toward the “liberators” makes it undeniable.

      The problem is that in a lot of these cases if you are not very conversant with the background it is difficult to sort truth from fiction and half-truth.

  • Shirin

    “The ostensible objective was to bring enough stability to the country so that the political process could reach a solution. Iraq’s politicians haven’t been doing that, and at least from my perspective don’t appear to even be trying.:”

    1. It is fascinating to me that despite an abundance of experience that seems to demonstrate the contrary, Americans and Israelis continue to be confident that the way to bring stability to others is to continually increase the amount and magnitude of their own violence. And you are always shocked when it doesn’t work.

    Violence produces chaos and rage, chaos and rage produce instability. The more violence, the more chaos and rage, the more chaos and rage, the more stability. It is simple common sense.

    2. And, of course, you blame the Iraqis – in this case the “politicians” (and please do not call them “Iraq’s politicians”, especially since so many of them rode into Iraq on your tanks and humvees) for the dismal failures of your own government’s policies and actions. I have never seen the art of blaming the victim brought so close to perfection as I have with the U.S. in Iraq in the last four and a half years.

    3. When are Americans going to understand that they are the problem, not the solution?

  • http://america-weeps.blogspot.com/ anon paranoid

    Sorry for being off topic. I saw Val on Chris Matthews show today and she used the word Treason by the Bush Administration.

    Was I glad to finally hear someone call it what it was. Now only if the media would start telling it truthfully.

    God Bless.

    • Teaeopy

      For some who find treason too strong an accusation, “high crimes and misdemeanors” (impeachment/conviction language from the Constitution) might fit. Most in Congress don’t want deal with all that old school stuff, but we musn’t forget the oath that was sworn.

  • http://www.food4humanity.org hoosierhoops

    shirin
    When are Americans going to understand that they are the problem, not the solution..
    I think that is an overarching statement
    not all americans think that way..just the ones in power right now..

    Shirin, I look forward to the day that america can look past it’s shores and heal this worldwide issue.
    It may take awhile..but it is possible to globally look past these issues and find common ground.
    That is my prayer.
    the hoopster

    • Shirin

      Shirin: “When are Americans going to understand that they are the problem, not the solution..”

      Hoosierhoops: “I think that is an overarching statement”

      Which part? For the record, I happen to think that both parts are reasonable and realistic.

      “not all americans think that way..”

      I didn’t say all Americans think that way. I said “Americans”, not “the Americans” or “all Americans”. Obviously, not ALL Americans think that way, but unfortunately, a lot of Americans do.

      “just the ones in power right now..”

      Unfortunately, that is not the case. Unfortunately, a lot of Americans do not understand that the U.S. is the problem, and not the solution. A lot of Americans who are adamantly opposed to the Bush regime do not understand that the U.S. is the problem and not the solution, including most politicians in the Democratic policy. They still think that the U.S. is the only one that can solve the problems the U.S. hs created.

      And by the way, those problems have been created by both Republicans and Democrats, so something much bigger needs to change than just which party is in power.

      • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

        More people need to start following the news for one thing.

        • Shirin

          That would be a good start.

          But even that is far from enough. Look, this morning as I was getting ready for work I had on the morning news from the local ABC radio affiliate. They kept teasing the question “is Iran the next Middle East powder keg?” Thus, they send the subliminal message that somehow it is Iran that is about to blow up, not that the United States military is preparing to blow Iran up.

          People need to understand that the United States is the powder keg, not Iraq, not Iran, not Syria (where I will be spending a month or so this coming Spring), but the United States. How can they understand that with misleading headlines like that?

          • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

            By reading between the lines like you and I do. It’s obvious the Bushies and their corporate media lapdogs are preparing us for another unnecessary war, and I believe a majority of people realize that. But, regarding Iran, it probably won’t matter to Bush how low his approval ratings go.

            The persons[s] most likely to stop Bush right now aren’t Americans or even Congress, but Putin, China and Japan. Putin because he can influence other nations, such as Europe, not to support a lame duck preznit’s war plans. China and Japan because guess who’s going to fund Bush’s WWIII with more US debt? If the other world powers got together and opposed Bush, he might have to listen to them.

            • Shirin

              The problem is, Leslie, that very few Americans seem to be willing or capable of reading between the lines, or digging beneath the surface.

              As for who can stop Bush, the Democrats in Congress could, if they wanted to. The problem is that they do not seem to want to, do they?

              • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

                Why are you asking me Shirin? Ask the Dems. [Sometimes it feels as if you just like to beat people over the head?]

                Because, of course, we both know too many Dems agree with the Bushies or they’re perhaps afraid of standing up to them.

                That’s why I’m hoping China and Japan and Putin pull the plug. It would probably be disastrous for the US if China and Japan stopped supporting US debt, but it would probably be disastrous for the world if they didn’t.

          • Delia

            I’m afraid things are going to have to get a lot worse for us in this country before enough people learn that they can’t trust either the press or the government on vital matters like war and peace. The Democrats have really let down the people and of course the repubs are hopeless at this point. I don’t know what else to say.

        • chris

          The only problem with that Leslie is that the news mostly sucks in quality, not quantity. CNN has done a little better lately here and there, but its hit and miss. MSNBC has about a total of 1hr of worthwile coverage across 3 shows, Hardball Countdown and Dan Abrams, the rest is opinion and fluff.

          CSPAN is about your most informative because you can watch these assholes lie to your face instead of the euphomistic outlet d’jour.

          ABCNews scoops better on their website than their TV station. They always publish pretty interesting scoops online, then you watch and watch and no coverage on their evening news and that piss poor Nightline.

          Has Koppel killed himself yet looking at what they did to that show? He wasn’t a saint, but goddamn, they suck! 3 stories a night mostly that are useless. I remember early Nightline very well.

          PBS is ok but sleepy, there seems to be no CNN international which was good coverage often. Our local cable can’t seem to get our public access back up in the county so we have shopping networks instead of FreeSpeechTV.

          If’n your a keen watcher of news by watching financials, you’ve got several outlets, but I can’t watch it for long.

          What does that leave you?
          Remember reading about the days of Pravda and how people would read the paper and kinda interpret what must be the truth? hmmm

          • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

            Who watches the news, unless it’s Olbermann? There are other places to keep up with events, such as blogs and newspapers [especially international papers].

            • Shirin

              Exactly, Leslie. Watching or listening to the network news is useless if you want to hear very much that is real.

      • http://www.food4humanity.org HoosierHoops

        Shirin:
        Kindof took the hoopster to task didn’t you?
        I understand your points.. My point..
        I look forward to the day that america can look past it’s shores and heal this worldwide issue.
        i think is valid..
        We made this mess and we’ll need to fix this mess.
        Nobody else is going to do it for us..
        I’m just saying..
        regards,

        • Shirin

          Hoops, you see? You are proving my point. You are exactly one of those Americans who think the U.S. can be the solution.

          Please, please, PLEASE understand this one thing:

          YOU CANNOT FIX IRAQ. All you can do is continue to break it more and more and more. Thinking that you can fix the mess you created there is tantamount to the criminal who rapes and beats half to death his victims should be the one to heal them afterwards. You are exactly the wrong ones to try to fix the mess you created in Iraq. That is the case for all kinds of different reasons that I don’t have time to enumerate now.

          Please understand that it would be better for you to simply leave and ignore Iraq completely for the rest of eternity than to stay and try to fix things there. What you SHOULD do is leave as soon and as quickly as possible, and be forced to pay reparations to Iraqis to fix their own situation. And if Iraqis want to reach out to someone else to help them, that is up to them, but it cannot be you.

          • Shirin

            Hoops, if you, personally, as an individual American, wish to help Iraqis, then you are very welcome. One way you can do that is to contribute to this organization. I am sure they would gratefully accept donations of money, and there might be other ways people can help who do not have money to spare:

            http://nomorevictims.org/

            Another very credible group that has for ten or so years been helping ill and wounded Palestinian children to obtain medical care, and has expanded to include Iraqi children is this one. They will welcome donations of money, and assistance with logistics, hosting, medical, and other services for the children:

            http://www.pcrf.net/pcrfnews/pcrfnews.html

            Home page: http://www.pcrf.net/first.html

            You can also find ways to donate medical drugs, supplies and equipment to Iraqi hospitals and clinics, and there are a number of organizations that are assisting refugees and who would welcome assistance.

        • Teaeopy

          I too take exception to the overuse of the second person pronoun when it comes to fixing blame. When the President, the Vice-President, and more than a few members of Congress violate their oaths of office concerning the Constitution, and when even a majority of the public can’t sway the elected officials’ opinions enough to effect swift change, we have a situation that is largely out of public control for the short term. We could all do the collective guilt thing, I suppose, shutting up and maybe even abandoning the vote, but that would get us nowhere. The fact that representative democracy in the USA is failing those of us who have believed in it should make us angry enough to do something more than growing our guilt feelings, even if it’s no more than stating our displeasure until elections come around. Stating our opinions may feel futile much of the time, but I have been noticing a little more squirming among Members of Congress and among presidential candidates. Some questions that are being put to them home in on issues that have been vigorously discussed in the blogosphere. Some members of the corporate press are peeking out of their cocoon, and some are even looking beyond quickie polls to see what bloggers and blog commenters are saying. So don’t shut up. I might though, being an often sluggish or distracted writer.

  • Thinker

    I have researched the Iraq situation and a bit clearer regards the perspective now. The problem seems to be exageration, as much as anything else.

    If there is an agenda everyone is being as startling as possible to grab the attention of the viewer. There is a general undercurrent of mistrust alround.

    I have read a great chunk of Baker’s teams assessment of the situation and in some ways the synopsis was not as expected (even withstanding the limits and political bias affecting the report) and in other ways it was precisely as expected.

    A friend of a friend’s wife is an ultra-christian bible basher and I had the misfortune of being thrown into her company at a dinner party where she explained her involvement with a campaign to save the women of Thailand from dreaded prostitution. Her statistics were that 90% of Thai bargirls were HIV positive. Flabergasted, I asked her if she had ever met any of these girls. She hadn’t, but she had been to a splash up conference in Bangkok. When I informed her I had interviewed a number of bar owners, girls and even Thai doctors to get to the root of any possible conspiracy. My research revealed there was a slight problem in Chiang Mai. The only HIV case I found in Pattaya was an Austrian (male) junkie. Most of the bar owners were so paranoid about their business [failing] they sent the girls for sexual health checks as regularly as once a week. Yet the corporate media did a stirling job in promoting doom & gloom.

    Mr M has come with an interesting suggestion in his “search and avoid” comment. While the US are not being attacked by any faction for the assets they “protect” (for who?), it seems logical that [if casualties are bad news] that the best way of avoiding them is avoiding trouble.

    So, whereas the walrus and carpenter analogy was beautifully constructed Larry, things might have improved because the real problem areas are being avoided like the plague. I don’t know and it is early days, perhaps the topology has changed, but I am deeply skeptical.

  • Shirin

    I think it is important to make it clear that PKK is a Turkish, not an Iraqi group, and that they have been fighting with the Turkish government for decades for the basic human rights of the Kurdish people of Turkey. I think it is also important to make it clear that of all the Kurdish populations in the world, Turkish Kurds are by far the most persecuted.

    You can label the PKK as terrorists, but some people see it otherwise. Bear in mind that the Turkish government has destroyed thousands of Kurdish towns and villages, turning their hundreds of thousands – possibly as many as one million – residents into homeless internally displaced persons. The Turkish government has slaughtered tens of thousands of Kurds. The Turkish government forbids Kurds from expressing their identity as Kurds. The Turkish government forbids Kurds from even speaking their own language in public, let alone providing education in their language for their children. And the anti-Kurdish racism in Turkey has to be seen to be believed. I don’t think that racism against Blacks in the United States was worse than this.

    And the PKK is no worse in terms of what they have done than the two Iraqi Kurdish parties. There is a documentary called “Good Kurds, Bad Kurds” that focuses on Turkish Kurds, and the PKK. I recommend it for anyone who wants to see something of the other side of the story. Netflix has it, and you can also purchase it online for a very reasonable price.

    • chris

      http://www.kevinmckiernan.com/doc.html

      Good Kurds, Bad Kurds.
      great documentary on the topic.

    • Cee

      A famous Kurd

      Despite his fierce struggle against the Christian incursion, Saladin achieved a great reputation in Europe as a chivalrous knight, so much so that there existed by the fourteenth century an epic poem about his exploits, and Dante included him among the virtuous pagan souls in Limbo. Saladin appears in a sympathetic light in Sir Walter Scott’s The Talisman (1825). Despite the Crusaders’ slaughter when they originally conquered Jerusalem in 1099, Saladin granted amnesty and free passage to all common Catholics and even to the defeated Christian army, as long as they were able to pay the aforementioned ransom (the Greek Orthodox Christians were treated even better, because they often opposed the western Crusaders). An interesting view of Saladin and the world in which he lived is provided by Tariq Ali’s novel The Book of Saladin.[8]

      Notwithstanding the differences in beliefs, the Muslim Saladin was respected by Christian lords, Richard especially. Richard once praised Saladin as a great prince, saying that he was without doubt the greatest and most powerful leader in the Islamic world.[9] Saladin in turn stated that there was not a more honorable Christian lord than Richard. After the treaty, Saladin and Richard sent each other many gifts as tokens of respect, but never met face to face.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saladin

  • Thinker

    There is a problem and prior to it being favourable to be a Kurd supporter, Turkey was not the only country to look down on their Kurdish inhabitants. The Turks have been ruthless, in every sense of the word. But the Kurds have been ruthless back. They haven’t passively taken abuse. A tit for tat battle has been going on.

    It was perfectly reasonable for Kurdish supporters to attempt to or assassinate Saddam Hussein, while any attempt he made to retaliate was ethnic cleansing. Though I have no doubt that Saddam systematically agrievated the Kurds, at least part of the problem was Kurdish inflexibility. The major issue with multi-culturalism is microcosm’s within society. Problems with visible connection in the wider community creates friction, leading to mistrust and eventally ostracisation and worse. The Microcosm seeks sanctity in its internal support mechanism while the wider society feels more and more unattached.

    The Kurds have made a habit of fitting that bill. Maybe Japan has it right – deport anyone who refuses to be Japanese.

    • Shirin

      “Turkey was not the only country to look down on their Kurdish inhabitants.”

      Turkey is unique in the way it views and treats its Kurdish citizens, and you really cannot equate that with the situation for Iraqi, Irani, or Syrian Kurds. I believe the primary reason for this is that, unlike Iraq, Iran, and Syria, Turks have big problems with any citizen who is not ethnically/culturally Turkish, or at least willing to pretend to be ethnically/culturally Turkish. Therefore, they have severely repressed any expression of Kurdish ethnicity and culture. Iraq, Iran, and Syria, on the other hand, have always accepted that they have ethnically, linguistically, and religiously diverse populations, and so one does not have to be ethnically Arab to be a fully acceptable citizen of Iraq or Syria, or ethnically Persian to be a fully acceptable citizen of Iran. Kurdish language, history, dress, music, traditional art, and other expressions of Kurdish and other ethnicities and cultures have always been fully accepted in Iraq, as have those of Iraq’s numerous other ethno-linguistic-religious groups.

      In Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurdish has always been legally taught and used as a language of instruction in Iraqi government schools. Educated Iraqi Kurds grew up bilingual, and literate in both Kurdish and Arabic. Not so in Turkey where Kurds are forbidden to teach Kurdish language or even to speak it in any official situation.

      And I have never heard even the most racist Iraqi say the kinds of things about Kurds that come out of the mouths of ordinary Turks every day.

      The problems for Kurds in Iraq have always been political rather than social, and stem not from a sense that they are ethnically inferior, as in Turkey, but as a direct result of political separatism, which by the way, has historically NOT been shared by all Kurds. Many, probably most Iraqi Kurds have historically not favoured a separatist agenda, and have defined themselves first as Iraqi, then as Kurdish. That has unfortunately changed as a result of circumstances, particularly since 1991 when Kurdistan was to a significant extent isolated by the Americans from the rest of the country and turned into a semi-autonomous zone (this was done ostensibly to protect Kurdish people, but there were other, more important motivations for it).

      “The Turks have been ruthless, in every sense of the word. But the Kurds have been ruthless back. They haven’t passively taken abuse. A tit for tat battle has been going on.”

      You can call it a tit for tat battle if you like, but some think of it in quite another way. Some think of it as a battle for equal rights, a battle of self-defence, and in some cases a battle for collective survival.

      “…at least part of the problem was Kurdish inflexibility.”

      Again, I would say that this is true of Iraq, and possibly of Iran and Syria too (I have less familiarity with the latter two countries). However, the situation for Kurds in Turkey has been and remains different, and the issues are therefore different.

      “The major issue with multi-culturalism is microcosm’s within society. Problems with visible connection in the wider community creates friction, leading to mistrust and eventally ostracisation and worse.”

      And here, once again, we have to be careful not to equate politics with society in every situation. In Iraq, unlike in Turkey, diversity is generally accepted, and considered a strength by most people who think about it at all (and for most people it is a non-issue that they rarely if ever even think about). Iraqis tend – or at least tended before 2003 – to mostly ignore one another’s ethnicity and religion. Very few use ethnicity or religion as a basis for whom to associate with, do business with, take as a friend, and intermarriage, is so commonplace as to be mostly unremarkable. Very few extended families in Iraq can realistically claim to be purely one thing or another.

      Iraq has also easily accepted and incorporated additional groups into its society. The best example here is the Armenians who fled the Turkish genocide (yeah, I WILL use the “g” word here) by the hundreds of thousands. Iraqis took them in, often at great risk to themselves, and gave them food, shelter, assistance, and in some cases jobs. Within a generation or less Armenian-Iraqis became an important part of the society. And let us not forget that the Turks were trying to kill off the Armenians largely because they were not ethnically Turkish.

      “Maybe Japan has it right – deport anyone who refuses to be Japanese.”

      Maybe this was intended as an ironic statement. Either way, it is a silly analogy. People can accept or refuse to be part of a political entity, but they cannot change their ethnicity, nor should they be required to. A Kurd cannot accept or refuse to be an ethnic Turk or an ethnic Arab or an ethnic Persian, because they are not those things. Turkey has demanded that Kurds suppress their ethnic identity. They even have insisted upon referring to Turkish Kurds as “Mountain Turks” rather than acknowledge that they are not ethnically Turkish and have their own historical and cultural identity – and name. Therefore, it is not a matter of refusing to be Turkish, it is a matter of demanding to be treated as an equal citizen of Turkey with equal rights no matter what one’s ethnicity.

      In the case of Iraq, there has not ever been the demand that Kurds (or Assyrians, or Chaldeans, or Mandaeans, or Turkmens, or Armenians, or [fillintheblankians]) should be or pretend to be Arabs. There has been no demand that any of Iraq’s many ethno-linguistic-religious groups suppress their identity or their culture – on the contrary, in fact. And in Iraq there has been no more than the normal level of racism that one sees in any diverse population, the United States included. The problems for Kurds in Iraq have been almost entirely political as a result of the activities of the separatists among them.

      • Thinker

        I disagree. Ethnicity is a human label. Nothing more, nothing less.

        Take away the label and you live without prejudice.

        Your other comments are fine, Shirin. We are in agreement there, albeit differing interpretations.

  • ybnormal

    before you open that celebratory bottle of champagne

    In light of World War III, maybe I’ll just put that bottle back on the shelf.

    Whether intended as a bluff, or a threat, Bush really ‘stepped in it’ with his recent WWIII rhetoric. By doing so, he’s pushing a self-fullfilling prophecy.

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    *The sole is usually durable in most terrain,lightweight and provides traction as well.-http://www.timbshoe.com