O P E N   T H R E A D   T O O

John Batchelor’s show begins at 10 p.m. ET. Then, at 10:30 p.m. ET, DON’T MISS LARRY JOHNSON TONIGHT on the Batchelor show, via KFI 640 AM.

Check out the full slate of guests and topics tonight. John Batchelor’s KFI show begins at 7:00 p.m., so tune in early.

If this is your first time listening, you’ll want to visit the site early in case you need to download an easily installed program to hear the show.

The two pincers putting the squeeze on Pakistan are 1) its mainstream majority population, and 2) its extremist, fundamentalist minority that is now getting armed to the teeth and swept up by the Taliban. In between is the Pakistani Army, which has no experience in counterinsurgency operations and is using conventional warfare to fight the well-armed Taliban, blowing up entire towns and dwellings, which has caused a massive refugee crisis — the largest of its kind since Rwanda — and for which Pakistan made NO advance preparations.

Here are some illuminating videos I’ve found that I’d like to share with you because they taught me so much. Included in the first two are Hillary Clinton’s statements.

From WorldFocus.org, an excellent backgrounder on the Swat Valley crisis, with these explanations to set up the video:

United Nations figures show that over 1.45 million people have been displaced by ongoing violence in Pakistan since May 2.

The immense strain of this humanitarian crisis is challenging the Pakistani government as it tries to avoid internal dissent against the consequences of its anti-Taliban military campaign.

The U.S. has pledged more than $100 million dollars in emergency assistance for Pakistan.

Ahmad Kamal, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the United Nations, joins Martin Savidge to discuss the situation in the refugee camps and how the military campaign is going.

From Hillary Clinton’s statement, posted at the State Department’s Web site:

Humanitarian Aid to Pakistan

[...]

Americans can use technology to help, as well. Using your cell phones, Americans can text the word “swat” — to the number 20222 and make a $5 contribution that will help the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees provide tents, clothing, food, and medicine to hundreds of thousands of affected people. And before I came over here, we did that in the State Department. So we are making some of the first donations to this fund.

President Obama and I hope that individuals who have fled the conflict will be able to return home quickly, safely, and on a voluntary basis. Some have already gone back to their communities. And as they do, the United States stands ready to help Pakistan’s government support displaced persons as they rebuild their lives.

But as long as this crisis persists, our assistance will continue. We face a common threat, a common challenge, and now a common task. And we know that the work ahead is difficult, but we have seen an enormous amount of support and determination out of the Pakistani government, military, and people in the last weeks to tackle the extremist challenge. And we’re confident that with respect to the humanitarian challenge the people of Pakistan and their government, as well as the international community, can come together and forge not only the assistance that is needed, but stronger bonds for the years ahead. …

These two CNN videos are CRITICAL to view. The first gives you great background information on what’s going on in Pakistan, and the second discusses the disturbing developments in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal:

Crisis in Pakistan 2:25
CNN’s Ivan Watson reports on the first pictures from the battles between Pakistan’s army and the Taliban.

Is Pakistan adding nukes? 1:57
CNN’s Chris Lawrence looks at satellite photos that indicate Pakistan is building a nuclear reactor.

UPDATE: “Pakistan Is Rapidly Adding Nuclear Arms, U.S. Says“

[...]

During a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday, Senator Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat, veered from the budget proposal under debate to ask Admiral Mullen about public reports “that Pakistan is, at the moment, increasing its nuclear program — that it may be actually adding on to weapons systems and warheads. Do you have any evidence of that?”

It was then that Admiral Mullen responded with his one-word confirmation. Mr. Webb said Pakistan’s decision was a matter of “enormous concern,” and he added, “Do we have any type of control factors that would be built in, in terms of where future American money would be going, as it addresses what I just asked about?”

Similar concerns about seeking guarantees that American military assistance to Pakistan would be focused on battling insurgents also were expressed by Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the committee chairman.
“Unless Pakistan’s leaders commit, in deeds and words, their country’s armed forces and security personnel to eliminating the threat from militant extremists, and unless they make it clear that they are doing so, for the sake of their own future, then no amount of assistance will be effective,” Mr. Levin said.

[...]

::::::

From John Batchelor’s blog. Every Sunday, hear Larry Johnson on John Batchelor’s nationally syndicated radio show, aired on KFI-AM.

So, what does Barack Obama do with the military commander running the show on the ground in Afghanistan who asks for 30,000 troops but is only provided 21,000 (courtesy of Barack of course)? You fire his ass and replace him with a hard charging officer with extensive experience in military special operations.

Stanley McChrystal was named today by Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, as the Commander, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Commander, U.S. Forces Afghanistan (USFOR-A). So what does this mean?

Stan McChrystal is an excellent tactical commander. He is not a desk jockey keen on sitting back at headquarters and politicking for a better job. But in terms of a strategic visionary, he’s not very good. He has no more clue about what to do in Afghanistan than McKiernan, the General he has replaced.

I heard some news report claiming McChrystal is an “expert in counter insurgency.” That is a load of horseshit. I had a conversation in Iraq (I was on the ground with the force commanded by McChrystal) and asked one of the troopers about the counter insurgency effort. During this period the level of attacks against American forces was spiraling ever higher. The troop looked at me and simply stated, “We don’t do counter insurgency, we do counter terrorism.”

And he was right. The forces under McChrystal’s command have NONE, ZERO experience with counter insurgency ops. That requires building links to local forces, employing local personnel in your operations, and supplementing military ops with civil affair ops. Counter terrorism is more raw–find the bad guys and kill them.

If we look to what happened in Iraq for guidance we will see that the worm turned when we really did focus on counter insurgency ops backed by money to pay tribal leaders to keep their teenage and young adult males gainfully employed in activities that did not entail building and planting roadside bombs.

I am sure General McChrystal will work hard. But he does not know Afghanistan and certainly has limited experience with counter insurgency ops. I am not sure that General David Petraeus, a West Point classmate of Mcchrystal, is thrilled with this. Will be interesting to watch.

Quite a number of serious and informed observers predict a spike in mass casualty violence hitting this week in Pakistan. President Obama is about to have both collective and separate meetings with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari — and many believe that Taliban insurgents will be attempting to send the message that both leaders are weak and that the place to discuss the future of the region is not in Washington, but in the region with Taliban leaders.

Others think that some of the violence will be orchestrated by forces loyal to President Zardari and/or related to the military in order to extract military assistance and aid concessions from Obama and his team.

The mounting tensions in Pakistan were brought home to me personally when I learned that the United States Central Command has rejected on security grounds the visit of Patrick Cronin to Pakistan today. Cronin is Director of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University and Senior Adviser and former Director of Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and also served as Director of Studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

To be clear, although Cronin had received clearance for the Pakistan visit from those in command in Pakistan, his visit was yesterday rejected because “facts on the ground had changed” and CENTCOM refused to override. The fact is that it easier today to visit Baghdad than Pakistan.

Cronin’s visit to Pakistan was important not only for his own assessment of what is taking place in Pakistan — but his relations with key parts of the Pakistan military and intelligence establishment and his ability to speak with the lesser known parts of these security bureaucracies as a policy intellectual and to some degree an American national security bureaucrat. Cronin is respected by both Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. and is known to be a useful source of counsel to the operations run by Robert Gates, Dennis Blair, Mike Mullen, Richard Holbrooke, and David Petraeus.

From my vantage point these last couple of days in Qatar, one can readily sense the gap in tension and concern between serious policy players in the Middle East who are concerned about trends in Afghanistan and Pakistan and those in Washington, who despite the increased reportage on the region, seem to be buffered from the make-or-break realities immediately upon the US and its allies.

Cronin was traveling to Pakistan with support and backing of U.S. Central Command — and when I arrived with Patrick Cronin on Sunday night in Doha, he said to me that the U.S. military authorities who were organizing part of his trip refused to allow him to stay in a hotel and were insisting he stay on the military compound. In other words, the intelligence in hand at Central Command fears an uptick in suicide bombings over the next week directly targeting hotels and high population centers where foreigners populate.

Another former senior US government official at the conference I am attending in Doha told me that Obama and Petraeus may be pushing over the next week or two a hard core push by the Pakistan military in the Swat region. Zardari and the military are resisting — and believe that the deal signed and ratified with the Taliban now running Swat can’t be undone — but word is that the US is insisting that this deal with the Taliban not stand. The price for action if Zardari concedes will be massively increased aid and lots of “helicopter gun ships” which the Pakistan military thrives on.

Another issue that is vigorously percolating right now is the controversial use of drone attacks to attack the minor and mid-level operations leadership of al Qaeda and Taliban insurgent groups. Some like National Defense University military expert Patrick Cronin believe that the tactical US military success of knocking out Taliban and related insurgents and disrupting operations that they have planned is blinding General Petraeus and other senior Obama administration officials from the fact that these drone attacks are fueling the growth and popularity of the insurgency — and that the tactical is undermining the strategic.

In other words, some believe that we are potentially on the verge of seeing the Pakistan government collapse and run a serious risk of Taliban/al Qaeda takeover of the Pakistani government because of the corrosive results of drone attacks.

Cronin reported to me that these drone attacks should only be used in the most extreme cases — preferably when either al Zawahiri or bin Laden are in their sites — or those at the very highest echelon of American targets. The rank and file should not be, in his view, the primary casus belli for unrelenting drone attacks — which have killed too many other innocent victims. The Taliban, in response, have been able to successfully combine the public outrage over the drone attacks with an anti-American nationalism that is appealing to a broader array of Pakistani citizens.

Regional envoy Richard Holbrooke is working to get the pieces of a sensible Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy together — but he must get the U.S. military operations that are undermining key strategic interests under control. Holbrooke does not yet have an arrangement with Petraeus that subordinates the military operation entirely to the course that Holbrooke is crafting with Obama’s confidence and support.

One other scary issue that is lurking the more that Obama and others publicly state that they have high confidence in the locked down state and security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal is what Pakistan’s working doctrine is when Pakistan goes on “high alert.”

Such “high alert” status can be triggered in an escalation with India or if the Pakistan military fears that the Taliban have made too many inroads and must be shut down — and declares martial law.

In such a case, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine states that their nukes go mobile — and are moved “on trucks,” according to one knowledgeable source.

This person said to me, “what roads do you think would be safe in Pakistan?”

So, while President Obama is correct to say that the nuclear stockpile is secure for now, any one wanting to give Taliban insurgents a helping move could trigger another Mumbai-like terrorist attack, or create other sorts of high casualty incidents to goad the military alert level to move up.

And then what was secure no longer will be — as a matter of deeply embedded security doctrine.

One other interesting tidbit here in Qatar is that many Arabs who have moved in and around Pakistan believe that President Zardari is no longer “Mr 10%.”

They call him “Mr. 20%.”

– Steve Clemons

O P E N   T H R E A D   T O O

John Batchelor’s show begins at 10 p.m. ET. Then, at 10:30 p.m. ET, DON’T MISS LARRY JOHNSON TONIGHT on the Batchelor show, via KFI 640 AM.

Check out the full slate of guests and topics tonight. John Batchelor’s KFI show begins at 7:00 p.m., so tune in early. Here are the topics and fellow guests during Larry’s appearance:

If this is your first time listening, you’ll want to visit the site early in case you need to download an easily installed program to hear the show.

GO HERE to view the full line-up of guests and topics tonight on KFI, from beginning to the program’s conclusion.

UPDATE #1: Here’s CNN’s coverage of the press conference:

NEXT UP: A video and text from the State.gov Web site, followed by fascinating reports on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and a direct interview with a top Taliban leader:

CNN has done some great reports on Pakistan, including the meeting with a Taliban leader aired last night on AC360:

The introduction of the AfPak plan — so named because rather than focus on Afghanistan it also incorporates Pakistan and the Pashtun populated border — seemed a big step forward for the Obama administration. According to South Asia experts, this plan was bound to succeed and seemed to have it all. But as time elapses the realities on the ground are raising questions about the wisdom of the plan — even if it was meant to be.

This proves that charting out a plan is different than implementing one. It’s certainly a positive step that Obama has “thinkers” on his side, but the reality is that academics, experts and academics are a dime a dozen. The US needs an implementation strategy, as well as someone willing to take charge and responsibility. Right now the plan has been to combat the Taliban. But if you want to kick the Taliban out of Pakistan, you need to understand Pakistan as well the NWFP, the intra-tribal friction, FATA (the Federally Administered Tribal Area), and of course the Arab influence.

The reality is the FATA has always been “sharia inclined”, meaning that the stage was set for what the Taliban were trying to gain. The society is already conservative. But the more cruel face of “Taliban-introduced Islamic law” started taking root during Musharraf era. Sufi Mohammad, the founder of Tehreel-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), a Pakistan militant organization vying for implementation of Sharia law, was not confronted then and is not confronted now. I mentioned Musharraf because that was the time when the army should have acted to stop the radicalization of the area, but they did not are now finding it difficult to prevent rapid seepage. So technically the infamous Swat “peace” deal is with the TNSM and not Taliban. It is also pertinent to clarify that the deal was signed by the President Asif Ali Zardari after it was passed by the parliament and under a lot of pressure by the NWFP’s provincial government. Though the provincial government is led by a center-left ruling party, they have been acting in diametric opposition to their stated position and beliefs. Their submission to religious parties or groups shows that they have lost control and are operating at cross purposes with the locals.

This is the same Sufi Mohammad, BTW, who was financed the overthrow Benazir Bhutto’s first government. This indicates that this problem has a history prior to the events of the past several weeks. Reports in the Pakistani media confirm that the provincial bureaucracy has been involved in protecting Sufi Mohammad and his like-minded minions. In fact, the Commissioner of that area is considered one of Sufi’s followers. Why hasn’t the Pakistani state government acted against such people? The growing strength and influence of Taliban proves that Pakistan government is not able to take any actions.

It is important to point out that this radical interpretation of Islamic law is a transplant of Arab, Tajik and Uzbek influence. This form of fundamentalism, which is not to be confused with the religious conservatism of the Pashtuns, is not Pakistani in origin.

So, the US strategy should not be to force the government of Pakistan to “do more” but rather to do what has already been asked of it. There is still time to confront Sufi Mohammad in Swat, instead of striking out peace deals, given that Sufi Mohammad is the leader of TNSM and not the Taliban, a misunderstanding which has been propated in the media. Sufi’s son-in-law, however, is the leader of the local Taliban, which makes him like-minded of their ideology.

Not many know that when the Taliban try to took over Buner not only did they faced resistance from the locals but that again neither the state nor the US were there to support them. The Taliban were kicked out but were called back in by the help of the local bureaucracy, contrary to the will of the people. During their week-long takeover, they helped strengthen their local supporters in Buner, not only taking out their “enemies” but established headquarters in their homes. The idea that the Taliban have left Buner is a hoax. But there is still time to take on the insurgents before they move on somewhere else.

What needs to be done – along with military action by the US (and only when it is absolutely necessary and there are no options) – is to pressurize the Pakistani government to support the locals against the Taliban.

The absence of local leaders – whether they were killed or fled the area because of threats from the Taliban – has created a leadership vacuum. This needs to be filled by educated and broadminded individuals to represent the local sentiment but instead is being filled by the power hungry, illiterate Taliban.

O P E N   T H R E A D   T O O

John Batchelor’s show begins at 10 p.m. ET. Then, at 10:30 p.m. ET, DON’T MISS LARRY JOHNSON TONIGHT on the Batchelor show, via KFI 640 AM. [CLICK on this map to see it full-size. The map is from Bill Roggio's Long War Journal. Roggio is a guest with Larry Johnson tonight.]

Check out the full slate of guests and topics tonight. John Batchelor’s KFI show begins at 7:00 p.m., so tune in early. Here are the topics and fellow guests during Larry’s appearance:

If this is your first time listening, you’ll want to visit the site early in case you need to download an easily installed program to hear the show.

HERE is the full line-up of guests and topics tonight on KFI, from beginning to the program’s conclusion:

705P Pacific Time:  Tim Starks, Congressional Quarterly, re the Obama adminsitration release of the Torture Memos and the Byzantine debate between the Hil and the White House and the GOP.

 920P:  Joseph Sternberg, Asia Wall Street Journal, re Chinese official warns US on protectionism  A top adviser to the Chinese government warned the US that a proposed border tax on carbon sensitive materials ’smells of protectionism’ and could spark retaliation from developing countries

 Read more…

articlesortdate="0261694418.000000" articlesorttitle="orthodox easter sunday april 19, 2009 in ny, dc, sf, la." articlesortsource="" sourceindex="0" articlesortid="00000000000000000029" articlelocaldate="0262456484.377621" articleid="557304734dd991c2ea2a81a8464b24f61045432b">

Orthodox Easter Sunday April 19, 2009 in NY, DC, SF, LA.

John Batchelor

Is the Recession Over?  (Smile.)   705P Eastern Time:  Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal, re Ben Bernanke became Federal Reserve chairman intent on making the central bank less personality-driven than it was under Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. But as he confronts an economic crisis that has pushed the Fed to shatter precedent and lend trillions of dollars, Mr. Bernanke is waging a public-relations offensive that casts him in the starring role.   Bernanke PR Push Rewrites Fed Script  720P:  Joe Bel Bruno, Goldman CEO: New Pay Standards Needed  Really wrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 – 1:43pm.  So lets see:
1. Mark to maybe
2. Post bonus amounts later
3. Get an overnight…

Apr 17, 1:53 PM

Is the Recession Over?  (Smile.)   

705P Eastern Time:  Jon Hilsenrath, Wall Street Journal, re Ben Bernanke became Federal Reserve chairman intent on making the central bank less personality-driven than it was under Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker. But as he confronts an economic crisis that has pushed the Fed to shatter precedent and lend trillions of dollars, Mr. Bernanke is waging a public-relations offensive that casts him in the starring role.   Bernanke PR Push Rewrites Fed Script
 

720P:  Joe Bel Bruno, Goldman CEO: New Pay Standards Needed  Reallywrote on Mon, 04/13/2009 – 1:43pm.  So lets see:
1. Mark to maybe
2. Post bonus amounts later
3. Get an overnight deposit from the Fed to bloat the Balance Sheet
4. Postpone all accts payable (issue IOUs)
5. Send a big check to O
6. Pay HP his ghost retainer.  

735P:  Professional Roundtable with  Jodi Schneider, Congressional Quarterly, John Fund, Diana West, DianaWest.net, re Tax Day and the Teabag parties, re Obama and MExico, re the new Border Czar.

750P: Continued re Homeland Security targets veterans?  Re the Obama administration   hesitates about waterboarding.

805P: John Bolton, AEI, Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, re North Korea breaks off with the IAEA and the Six Party Talks, re what is to be done?  North Korea to Boycott Six-Party Talks

 

820P: Roundtable on North Korea continues, re the United NAtions Security Council, re Beijing refuses to agree to new sanctions, re the farility of the North Korea regime.

835P:  Jim McTague, Barron’s, Financial Roundtable, John Tamny, Realclearmarkets.com, Tom Donlon, Barron’s, re the banks report profits, can we trust the banks?  Re Goldman Sachs aims to pay back TARP, will the Obama administration accept the money?

850P:  Continued re the bank stress tests are due May 4, does everyone pass?  And what then?

905P:  Malcolm Hoenlein, re Durban II conference opens in Geneva, re the United Nations and organized and hysterical anti-Israel propoganda.

920P:  Aaron Klein, WND, re the Obama administration commits to the Saudie plan for parallel talks for a two-state solution, Israel and PA, Israel and Syria.

935P:  Richard Beeman, author, Plain, Honest Men: The Making of the American Constitution, re the drama and opera of the writing and rewriting of the Constitution by cranky, devious, sophisticated, ambitious young men, led by the bold and tireless James Madison in the spring and summer of 1787.

955P:  Exeunt with Joseph Menn, Financial Times, re Computer hackers stole more sensitive records last year than in the previous four combined, with ATM cards and PIN information growing in popularity as targets.

___________________________

KFI-AM 640

705P Pacific Time:  Nicholas Casey, Wall Street Journal, re next month, shipping giant AP Moeller-Maersk will make a move that was unlikely ten years back.  A line of 6000 container ships that now goes to Southern California will go instead dock at Seattle. Why?

720P: Dawn Kopecki, Bloomberg, re Fannie, Freddie Face Pressure to Revamp as Housing Collapse Wrecks Profits:  Say good-bye to Fannie and Freddie as you know them. The bailed-out mortgage finance companies will emerge from their travails combined as one, broken up or with substantially reshaped missions. 

 

735P: Professional Roundtable  Larry Johnson, No Quarter, Bill Roggio, Long War Journal, Hussein Yusuf, Somali national, re the pirates of Somalia, re Somali Extremists Have al Qaeda Ties  By Ali Soufan
Another failed state has become a training ground for terrorists.

750P: Continued re the pirates of Somalia continued, re the prospect of a stable Somalia government.

805P:  Barbara Kolm-Lamprechter, Hayek Institute, re the Austrian School of economics, re the prospect of recovery from the financial crisis. 

 

820P:  Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, re the California economy and the sharp rise in unemployment, re the housing market collapse, re the 

835P:  Mark Rudd, author, “Underground: My Life with SDS and the Weathermen,” re the 40 year travail of the outspoken and precocious leader of the Columbia University protest 1968, his life in the Weathermen, his life as a fugitive.  Nostalgiac, sparse, banal, fascinating.

850P:  Bob Zimmerman, author, “Universe In A Mirror,” re NASA prep for Hubble rescue mission, re Kepler opens its eye and sends initial pics of its portion of the sky in Cygnus, re the aimless space policy of the Obama administration.

905P:  Jim Rogers, Rogers Investment, from Singapore, re the prospect of a China led worldwide recovery, re the continuing commodity bull market, re the coming bull market in farm food.

 920P:  Joseph Sternberg, Asia Wall Street Journal, re Vietnam and the Obama administration, re Vietnam and the worldwide downturn in trade.

935P: Dave Cullen, author, “Columbine,” re the April 20, 1999 massacre and ten years after, the continuing silence of the parents, the remains of the mystery, the measure of Harris as a psychopath and Klebold as a companions in the homicial dyad like Bonnie and Clyde, re the still damaged lives of the victims, the survivors, the loved ones of the lost.

955P:  Exeunt:  Lou Ann Hammond, re the GM shedding of Saturn, Hummer, GMAC, Saab, and?

Taliban on the march in the fine Spring weather in the Northwest Frontier.  The spotty reports from Pakistan point to a surge of Taliban aggression ever since the failed state leadership at Islamabad ceded control of the Swat Valley to the jihadists.  The surge is not headed to Kabul and the American legions but rather toward Islamabad and the nuke armed Pakistani legions at Rawalpindi.  Sunday 26 I will speak to a roundtable of Ann Marlowe, Bill Roggio, Tunku Varadarajan and Larry Johnson on the AFPAK border region turmoil and the Obama administration war-fighting plans. There is no contingency that I have heard for a Taliban takeover of Pakistan. The reports are grim: